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# SchoolTeam A TOT
1 Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Varsity 32 32
2 Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 38 38
3 Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 41 41
4 Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 43 43
5 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 48 48
6 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 60 60
7 North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 61 61
8 St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 72 72
9 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 83 83
10 Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 92 92
11 Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin 101 101
12 Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity 112 112
13 Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 122 122
14 Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 135 135
15 Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS 159 159
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Varsity 1 2 10 4 1 5 1 2 1 5 32 Dawson Doucet '18
Crockett Collier '21
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy 2 1 4 2 3 10 7 3 3 3 38 Emma Aubuchon '19
Ellen Tovb '19
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers 3 4 1 1 4 4 4 9 7 4 41 Lucy Brock '23
Julius Heitkoetter '23
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays 7 8 2 3 5 1 3 4 2 8 43 Robert Argote '18 [1]
Miller Goldenberg '20 [2-8]
Reed Menszer '20 [9-10]
Miller Goldenberg '20 [1]
Robert Argote '18 [2, 5-8]
William Nance '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 5 5 RDG 6 2 6 2 1 10 6 48 Patrick Flahrety '20 [1-4, 7-10]
Coltrane Leport '18 [5-6]
Elizabeth O'Brien '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Trent Bilodeau '21 [5-6]
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers 4 6 6 7 7 8 9 7 5 1 60 Patrick Miller '19 [1-5]
Aidan Brown '20 [6-10]
Zac Wellins '19 [1-5]
Alec Bodenski '19 [6-10]
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers 8 DSQ 5 5 RDG 2 5 6 6 2 61 Alex Dicenso '19 [1-10]
Caroline Bourgeois '18 [1-2]
Ryan Soucy '18 [3-8]
Nora Ong '19 [9-10]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws 6 9 7 9 8 7 8 5 4 9 72 Charles Breath '18
Frederick Cabell '19
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 9 7 3 10 9 9 10 11 8 7 83 Taylor Warwick '20 [1-6, 9-10]
Joseph Paccione '21 [7-8]
Nate Ciak '20 [1-6, 9-10]
Gabriel Anama '21 [7-8]
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies 13 12 11 11 6 3 6 8 12 10 92 Emily Alfortish '21 [1-2]
Chris Hebert '19 [3-4, 9-10]
Jonathan Schrantz '20 [5-8]
Nicholas Combe '19 [1-2]
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin 10 3 9 8 11 13 12 14 9 12 101 Ben Ryan '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Hayden Sharpe '20 [3-4, 7-8]
London L'Hoste-Larson '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sarah Bancroft '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity 11 11 8 12 12 11 11 10 13 13 112 Matthew Smyth '21 [1, 3-4, 7-8]
Spencer Odom '21 [2, 5-6, 9-10]
Spencer Odom '21 [1]
Matthew Smyth '21 [2]
Matteo Arellano '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Allison Oldnettle '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Brother Martin Brother Martin Crusaders 12 10 12 13 13 12 13 12 11 14 122
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions 14 DNS 13 14 10 DNF 14 13 14 11 135 Riley Reech '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Elizabeth Squires '18 [3-4, 7-10]
Corinne Martin '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS DNF DNS DNS 15 DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 159 Madison Larrieu '19 [1-10]
Jenna Griffith '19 [1, 3-10]
Kate Moise '19 [2]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (4 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Ben Franklin High SchoolBen Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin22222424262628283030
Brother MartinBrother Martin Crusaders242426262828303022
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Capers14141616181820202222
Choctawhatchee High SchoolChoctawhatchee High School Varsity28283030224466
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins44668810101212
Gulfport High SchoolGulfport High School Varsity6688101012121414
Isidore Newman SchoolIsidore Newman School Greenies303022446688
Jesuit High School, NOLAJesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays12121414161618182020
Lake Travis High SchoolLake Travis High School Cavaliers18182020222224242626
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders10101212141416161818
Mount Carmel AcademyMount Carmel Academy CUBS2626282830302244
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Skippers881010121214141616
St. StanislausSt. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws16161818202022222424
Ursuline AcademyUrsuline Academy Lions224466881010
Wayzata High SchoolWayzata High School Navy20202222242426262828
SchoolTeam SkipperCrew
Ben Franklin High School Ben Franklin High School Benjamin Franklin Ben Ryan '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Hayden Sharpe '20 [3-4, 7-8]		 London L'Hoste-Larson '19 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Sarah Bancroft '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Capers Patrick Miller '19 [1-5]
Aidan Brown '20 [6-10]		 Zac Wellins '19 [1-5]
Alec Bodenski '19 [6-10]
Choctawhatchee High School Choctawhatchee High School Varsity Matthew Smyth '21 [1, 3-4, 7-8]
Spencer Odom '21 [2, 5-6, 9-10]		 Spencer Odom '21 [1]
Matthew Smyth '21 [2]
Matteo Arellano '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Allison Oldnettle '19 [5-6, 9-10]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins Taylor Warwick '20 [1-6, 9-10]
Joseph Paccione '21 [7-8]		 Nate Ciak '20 [1-6, 9-10]
Gabriel Anama '21 [7-8]
Gulfport High School Gulfport High School Varsity Dawson Doucet '18 Crockett Collier '21
Isidore Newman School Isidore Newman School Greenies Emily Alfortish '21 [1-2]
Chris Hebert '19 [3-4, 9-10]
Jonathan Schrantz '20 [5-8]		 Nicholas Combe '19 [1-2]
Jesuit High School, NOLA Jesuit High School, NOLA Blue Jays Robert Argote '18 [1]
Miller Goldenberg '20 [2-8]
Reed Menszer '20 [9-10]		 Miller Goldenberg '20 [1]
Robert Argote '18 [2, 5-8]
William Nance '18 [3-4, 9-10]
Lake Travis High School Lake Travis High School Cavaliers Lucy Brock '23 Julius Heitkoetter '23
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders Patrick Flahrety '20 [1-4, 7-10]
Coltrane Leport '18 [5-6]		 Elizabeth O'Brien '18 [1-4, 7-10]
Trent Bilodeau '21 [5-6]
Mount Carmel Academy Mount Carmel Academy CUBS Madison Larrieu '19 [1-10] Jenna Griffith '19 [1, 3-10]
Kate Moise '19 [2]
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Skippers Alex Dicenso '19 [1-10] Caroline Bourgeois '18 [1-2]
Ryan Soucy '18 [3-8]
Nora Ong '19 [9-10]
St. Stanislaus St. Stanislaus Rock-A-Chaws Charles Breath '18 Frederick Cabell '19
Ursuline Academy Ursuline Academy Lions Riley Reech '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Elizabeth Squires '18 [3-4, 7-10]		 Corinne Martin '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Kennedy Cooper '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Wayzata High School Wayzata High School Navy Emma Aubuchon '19 Ellen Tovb '19

Conditions — 11/18/2017 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 69%  ·  Pressure 1012.2 hPa

Temperature

75°F
↑ 78°F   ↓ 70°F
Feels like 75°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
12.4 kn
avg  ·  max 16.8 kn
Gusts to 30.1 kn
From SSW (212°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover95% Sunshine3.7 hrs Humidity69% Pressure1012.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Jesuit NOLA: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.05
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Jesuit NOLA by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Jesuit NOLA, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →