Taylor Warwick

School Donovan Catholic High School '20
Regattas 72
Races 328

Rating History

Team Race Rating

Rating	Rank	vs fleet rating	Record
1.33 (fleet 2.16)	unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active)	−0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts	as skipper 0–12 (0%)

Season	Regattas	Skipper W–L	Crew W–L
Fall 2019	1	0–6	—
Spring 2018	1	0–6	—

Team race surprisal: regatta by regatta

Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 0–12 against 1.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−1.4). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.

Date	Regatta	Role	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2019-10-06	NJISA 2019 Fall Team Championship	skipper	1.42	-1.58	0–6	0.9	≤−3.00	1.3	>99%
2018-04-09	NJISA Spring Team Meet 1	skipper	1.12	-1.88	0–6	0.5	≤−3.00	0.7	>99%

Regatta results

Regatta	Role	Div	Races	Avg	Rating
Fall 2019 Team page Season
SUNY Maritime Fall Intersectional Invitational	Skipper	A	4	11.0	-0.02
NJISA 2019 Fall Team Championship	Skipper	TR	6	0%	—
NJISA 2019 Fall Series 4	Skipper	A	4	5.2	1.37
NJISA 2019 Sailfest Regatta	Skipper	A	6	6.8	0.86
NJISA 2019 Fall Series 3	Skipper	A	5	7.2	0.79
NJISA 2019 Fall Series 6	Skipper	A	2	9.5	-0.09
NJISA 2019 Fall Series 5	Skipper	A	4	5.5	1.40
NJISA 2019 Fall Series 1	Skipper	A	4	4.2	1.71
NJISA 2019 Fall Fleet Championship	Skipper	A	14	7.0	0.62
MASSA Fall Silver Fleet Championship	Skipper	A	8	7.9	0.94
Spring 2019 Team page Season
NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #9	Skipper	A	4	7.0	1.00
NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #7	Skipper	A	4	5.5	1.38
NJISA Spring 2019 Wed Series #1	Skipper	A	3	10.3	-0.21
NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #8	Skipper	A	5	8.6	0.50
NJISA 2019 Spring Wednesday Series #5	Skipper	A	4	8.5	0.59
NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #2	Skipper	A	4	5.2	1.37
NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #3	Skipper	A	5	7.0	1.03
NJISA 2019 Spring Fleet Championship	Skipper	A	11	8.0	0.81
NJISA 2019 OCC Spring Invitational	Skipper	A	6	8.0	0.88
NJISA 2019 New Jersey State Championship	Skipper	A	8	6.4	0.49
NJISA 2019 Last Hurrah Regatta	Skipper	A	4	5.2	1.37
NJISA 2019 Icebreaker	Skipper	A	2	9.5	-0.24
Fall 2018 Team page Season
OCC Invitational	Skipper	A	8	9.1	0.57
NJISA Wed Series One	Skipper	B	2	5.0	1.80
NJISA Wed Series Two	Skipper	A	4	6.0	1.38
NJISA Wed Series Three	Skipper	A	4	7.5	0.73
NJISA Wed Series Seven	Skipper	A	4	11.2	-1.03
NJISA Wed Series Four	Skipper	A	3	8.3	0.71
NJISA Wed Series Five	Skipper	A	4	11.0	-0.23
NJISA Sailfest 2018	Skipper	A	6	8.7	0.34
NJISA 2018 Fall Fleet Champs	Skipper	A	7	9.9	0.15
Lawrence A. White Invitational	Skipper	A	12	10.4	0.86
Spring 2018 Team page Season
NJISA Wed Series #5	Skipper	A	4	10.8	-1.37
NJISA 2018 Spring Fleet Championship	Skipper	A	12	6.4	0.47
NJISA Wed Series #6	Skipper	A	2	6.0	-0.54
NJISA Wed Series #7	Skipper	A	4	12.2	-1.21
NJISA Wed Series #8	Skipper	A	4	10.5	-1.13
NJISA Wed Series #2	Skipper	A	2	14.0	—
NJISA Spring Team Meet 1	Skipper	TR	6	0%	—
NJISA 2018 Wed Series #3	Skipper	A	4	10.0	0.20
NJISA 2018 Last Hurrah	Skipper	A	3	9.0	-0.51
2018 NJ State High School Champs	Skipper	A	8	4.4	1.47
2018 NJISA Icebreaker	Skipper	A	5	5.8	1.04
Fall 2017 Team page Season
NJISA Wed Series #1	Skipper	B	3	6.7	1.04
NJISA Wed Fleet Series #2	Skipper	B	4	8.8	0.13
NJISA Wed Fall Series #4	Skipper	A	3	5.7	1.48
NJISA Wed Fall Fleet Series #3	Skipper	B	3	6.7	0.56
NJISA 2017 Wed Fall Series #5	Skipper	A	2	6.5	1.59
NJISA 2017 Fall Wed Series #6	Skipper	A	3	13.3	-1.15
NJISA 2017 Fall Fleet Championship	Skipper	A	4	9.5	-0.48
Great Oaks Silver	Skipper	A	4	8.0	-0.45
Great Oaks Red	Skipper	A	8	7.8	0.95
Christchurch School Invitational Regatta	Skipper	A	14	5.9	1.21
2017 NJISA Sailfest	Skipper	B	6	8.7	0.49
Spring 2017 Team page Season
NJISA Wed (Tues) Fleet 1	Skipper	B	2	6.5	0.03
OCC Spring Invitational	Skipper	B	4	5.2	1.05
NJISA Wed Series 5	Skipper	A	4	6.0	0.96
NJISA Wed Fleet Series 4	Skipper	A	2	7.0	1.27
NJISA Wed Fleet 3	Skipper	B	2	2.5	2.74
NJISA 2017 Spring Fleet Championship	Skipper	B	2	6.5	-0.27
NJ 2017 State Championship	Skipper	A	2	9.5	-2.36
MASSA Spring Silver Champs	Skipper	A	3	6.7	1.12
Fall 2016 Team page Season
NJISA Wednesday Series 2016-2	Skipper	B	1	1.0	—
NJISA Wed Series 2016-1	Skipper	B	3	7.0	0.97
NJISA Wed Fleet 10-26	Skipper	B	2	15.0	-1.67
NJISA Wednesday Series 2016-03	Skipper	B	2	9.5	-1.01
NJISA Fleet Series 2016-4	Skipper	B	2	5.5	1.58
NJISA Fall Wed Final	Skipper	B	2	7.5	1.02
NJISA 2016 Fall Fleet Champs	Skipper	B	6	6.8	0.61
MASSA Fall Fleet Silver Championship	Skipper	B	2	2.5	2.92
2016 SUNY Maritime Fall Invitational	Skipper	B	2	6.0	1.16
2016 OCC Fall Invitational	Skipper	B	6	4.7	1.83

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How do skipper ratings work?A log-strength fitted to every race at once, smoothed week to week.
What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
How does a crew rating work?A crew rating is small and uncertain; a worked example on one roster.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.

All notes →