NJISA Wed Series One

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 2 2 4
2 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 5 5 10
3 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 12 10 22
4 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 14 13 27
5 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 11 19 30
6 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 11 20 31
7 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 21 10 31
8 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 7 29 36
9 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 26 10 36
10 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 13 27 40
11 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 36 10 46
12 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 23 25 48
13 Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 18 32 50
14 Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 29 22 51
15 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 33 18 51
16 Henry Hudson Regional School Henry Hudson Regional School Admirals 23 33 56
17 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 30 27 57
18 Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 28 30 58
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 1 1 2 Luke Arnone '19
Blake Epstein '19
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 3 2 5 Colleen O'Brien '20
Olivia Pasquale '19
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 4 3 7 Bridget Green '21
Alex Klinov '22
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 2 9 11 Michael Pinto '19
Corbin Menzgentzow '22
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 6 5 11 Declan Botwinick '21
Evan Harrison '21
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 5 7 12 Lauren Ehnot '20
Alex Chrystal '20
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 7 6 13 Brooke Schmelz '21
Will Beyer '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 10 4 14 Brielle Willoughby '20
Nate Ertle '20
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 8 10 18 Leo Krajewski '19
Sonja Krajewski '22
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 9 12 21 Harry Ricker '19
Danny Raphael '19
Henry Hudson Regional School Henry Hudson Regional School Admirals 12 11 23 Benson Chiles '22
Tobin Mytnick '22
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 15 8 23 Zach Higham '19
Paige Zelenak '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 11 15 26 Ryan Mullins '19
Ryan Ehnot '22
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 14 14 28 Molly Meehan '19
Gwyn Blackley '19
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 16 13 29 Patrick Modin '19
Harrison Quinn '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 13 17 30 Patrick Cashin '20
Rodney Wotton '20
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 17 16 33 Aris Condos '20
Owen Desanto '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 18 18 36 Luke Barlet '20
Thomas Glawson '19
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 1 1 2 Cameron Giblin '19
John Cocozza '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2 2 3 5 Michaela O'Brien '20
Sophie Harrington '22
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 3 7 10 Taylor Warwick '20
Nate Ciak '20
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 4 6 10 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19
Taylor Rice '19
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 6 4 10 Quinn Harrington '19
Joseph David '20
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 8 2 10 Julia Laforgia '19
Hope Maguire '19
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 5 8 13 Tom Green '19
Joe Mrazek '20
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 7 11 18 Arianna Weber '21
Danielle Petry '20
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 9 10 19 Patrick York '20
Chase Davis '20
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 15 5 20 Connor Corbett '22
Alexandria Carvhalo '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity 10 12 22 Topher Lucyk '20
Jack Nolan '20
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 1 11 14 25 Alexa Carles '19
Garrett Johnston '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 12 15 27 Matthew Bell '20
Walter Mehl '21
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 18 9 27 Matthew Hamelsky '19
Catherine Vucetic '19
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 13 16 29 Christian Pagan '22
No Show
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys 17 13 30 Caroline Fortier '19
Hailey Hathaway '22
Toms River South Toms River South Indians 2 14 18 32 Jack Parks '21
Kyle Braden '21
Henry Hudson Regional School Henry Hudson Regional School Admirals 16 17 33 Conor Greene '22
Gavin Sapio '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.090+0.09
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2016 (12 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles11
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 122
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 233
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins44
Henry Hudson Regional SchoolHenry Hudson Regional School Admirals55
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity66
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 177
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 288
Red Bank Catholic High SchoolRed Bank Catholic High School Caseys1717
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 199
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 21010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 11111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 21212
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits1313
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners1414
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 11515
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 21616
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs1818

Division B

Team1B2B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles11
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 122
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 233
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins44
Henry Hudson Regional SchoolHenry Hudson Regional School Admirals55
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Varsity66
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 177
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 288
Red Bank Catholic High SchoolRed Bank Catholic High School Caseys1717
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 199
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 21010
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 11111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 21212
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits1313
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners1414
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 11515
Toms River SouthToms River South Indians 21616
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs1818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Aris Condos '20 Owen Desanto '23
Eagles Arianna Weber '21 Danielle Petry '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Mullins '19 Ryan Ehnot '22
Colts 1 Quinn Harrington '19 Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Patrick Cashin '20 Rodney Wotton '20
Colts 2 Matthew Bell '20 Walter Mehl '21
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Luke Barlet '20 Thomas Glawson '19
Griffins Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Henry Hudson Regional School Henry Hudson Regional School Benson Chiles '22 Tobin Mytnick '22
Admirals Conor Greene '22 Gavin Sapio '22
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Patrick Modin '19 Harrison Quinn '20
Varsity Topher Lucyk '20 Jack Nolan '20
Ranney School Ranney School Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1 Cameron Giblin '19 John Cocozza '20
Ranney School Ranney School Brooke Schmelz '21 Will Beyer '20
Panthers 2 Matthew Hamelsky '19 Catherine Vucetic '19
Red Bank Catholic High School Red Bank Catholic High School Molly Meehan '19 Gwyn Blackley '19
Caseys Caroline Fortier '19 Hailey Hathaway '22
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Harry Ricker '19 Danny Raphael '19
Bulldogs 1 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Taylor Rice '19
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Olivia Pasquale '19
Bulldogs 2 Michaela O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 Nate Ertle '20
Rams 1 Tom Green '19 Joe Mrazek '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Bridget Green '21 Alex Klinov '22
Rams 2 Christian Pagan '22 No Show
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Michael Pinto '19 Corbin Menzgentzow '22
Hermits Patrick York '20 Chase Davis '20
Toms River North Toms River North Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Mariners Connor Corbett '22 Alexandria Carvhalo '21
Toms River South Toms River South Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Indians 1 Alexa Carles '19 Garrett Johnston '22
Toms River South Toms River South Leo Krajewski '19 Sonja Krajewski '22
Indians 2 Jack Parks '21 Kyle Braden '21
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs Julia Laforgia '19 Hope Maguire '19

Conditions — 09/12/2018 (8am–6pm)

🌦️Light drizzle
Humidity 92%  ·  Pressure 1022.8 hPa

Temperature

76°F
↑ 77°F   ↓ 72°F
Feels like 84°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.1 kn
avg  ·  max 4.8 kn
Gusts to 13.8 kn
From ESE (102°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover98% Sunshine3.6 hrs Humidity92% Pressure1022.8 hPa Rain0.12 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SE 6 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.12)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.02 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.14
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.17)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.12 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →