Rumson-Fair Haven '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.88 (fleet 4.63) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 49–22 (69%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 | 2 | 11–2 | — |
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 8–0 | — |
| Fall 2018 | 1 | 7–4 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 13–12 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 3 | 10–4 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 8 graded regattas (67 matches) the record is 47–20 against 41.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+5.2). 2 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 13 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-11-02 | MASSA Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.29 | 4.60 | 5–2 | 3.3 | +2.31 | 2.0 | 13% |
| 2019-10-06 | NJISA 2019 Fall Team Championship | skipper | 2.14 | 5.14 | 6–0 | 5.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 31% |
| 2019-04-08 | NJISA 2019 Spring Team Race Qualifier | skipper | 2.34 | 5.34 | 8–0 | 4.9 | ≥+3.00 | 6.2 | 1% |
| 2018-09-30 | NJISA Fall Team Champs | skipper | 2.25 | 1.78 | 7–4 | 7.5 | −0.47 | 0.1 | 81% |
| 2018-04-28 | MASSA Team Championship Baker Qualifier | skipper | 2.15 | 1.19 | 8–9 | 10.1 | −0.96 | 1.1 | 94% |
| 2018-04-21 | NJISA Spring Team Champs | skipper | 2.21 | 3.13 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.91 | 0.4 | 44% |
| 2017-11-04 | MASSA 2017 Fall Team Race Championship | skipper | 2.09 | 1.95 | 3–3 | 3.1 | −0.14 | 0.0 | 73% |
| 2017-10-04 | NJISA Fall TEAM 1 | skipper | 1.86 | 3.64 | 5–1 | 3.7 | +1.79 | 1.2 | 21% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Colleen O'Brien |  Boston College |
'24 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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