NJISA 2019 Fall Series 1

HostTRYC & OCC
Date09/11/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	9	5	14
2	Toms River North	Mariners	11	22	33
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	30	15	45
4	Ranney School	Panthers 1	28	19	47
5	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	17	37	54
6	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	17	38	55
7	Central Regional High School	Eagles	33	27	60
8	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	38	27	65
9	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	51	23	74
10	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	35	47	82
11	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	42	43	85
12	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	35	57	92
13	Chatham High School	Cougars	52	45	97
14	Ranney School	Panthers 2	39	59	98
15	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	53	48	101
16	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	61	44	105
17	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	61	54	115

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	2	1	3	3	9	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Toms River North	Mariners	1	3	2	5	11	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	3	8	5	1	17	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-4] Nate Ciak '20 [1-2] Gabriel Anama '21 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	5	4	6	2	17	Bridget Green '21 [1-4] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 1	7	2	12	7	28	Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	6	10	10	30	Ryan Ehnot '22 Connor Feury '22
Central Regional High School	Eagles	11	7	4	11	33	Jordan Macmoyle '20 [1-2] Peter Taboada '20 [3-4] Arianna Weber '21 [1-2] Alexander Cammarato '22 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	14	8	4	35	Ella Bilow '22 Alex Chrystal '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	10	9	1	15	35	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Alex Klinov '22 [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	6	12	11	9	38	Topher Lucyk '20 Harrison Quinn '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	8	5	14	12	39	Jack Whitman '23 Tomas Mora '23
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	12	13	9	8	42	Mercedes Escandon '20 [1-4] Thomas Rose '20 [1-2] Angelina '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	15	17	13	6	51	Zachary York '20 Calvin Mcclain '22
Chatham High School	Cougars	13	10	15	14	52	Luke Duplessis '20 Henry Gallagher '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	14	15	7	17	53	Matthew Bell '20 John Ruane '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	16	16	16	13	61	Thomas Roeber '23 Hayden Warwick '23
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	17	11	17	16	61	Sophie Harrington '22 Owen Geohegan '22

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	1	1	1	2	5	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	2	8	1	15	Colin Guerrera '22 Joseph David '20
Ranney School	Panthers 1	6	5	4	4	19	Alexa Whitman '22 John Cocozza '20
Toms River North	Mariners	2	11	2	7	22	Everett Botwinick '22 [1-2] Connor Corbett '22 [3-4] Connor Corbett '22 [1-2] Lindsay Walsh '23 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	9	3	3	8	23	Patrick York '20 Chase Davis '20
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	3	4	9	11	27	Will Kernan '23 [1-2] Esteban Pedroza '23 [3-4] Esteban Pedroza '23 [1-2] Conor Greene '22 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	5	6	11	5	27	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-2] Annabel Bornebusch '22 [3-4] Owen Desanto '23 [1-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	11	15	5	6	37	Kennedy Laureigh '22 [1-2] Chloe Witt '23 [3-4] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	12	9	14	3	38	Joe Paccione '21 Katie Shives '20
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	7	8	12	16	43	Lucas Escandon '22 [1-4] Emerson Furgason '20 [1-2] Ryan Dailey '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	10	16	6	12	44	Kevin Brooksbank '23 Alex Kraljic '23
Chatham High School	Cougars	13	10	7	15	45	Jamie Lynch '23 Jonathan Field '22
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	15	13	10	9	47	Ella Bilow '22 Alex Chrystal '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	7	16	17	48	Aedan Moran '20 [1-2] Duncan Hathaway '20 [3-4] Hunter Oleynik '22 [1-2]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	17	14	13	10	54	Chris Payne '20 Tim Buch '22
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	16	12	15	14	57	Christian Pagan '22 [1-4] Grace Micciche '23 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers 2	14	17	BKD	13	59	Grace Bray '23 Kieran Collins '25

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	6	6	6	6
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	7	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 1	8	8	8	8
Ranney School Panthers 2	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	13	13	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	14	14	14	14
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	15	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17	17

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	1	1
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	3	3
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	5	5	5	5
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	6	6	6	6
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	7	7	7	7
Ranney School Panthers 1	8	8	8	8
Ranney School Panthers 2	9	9	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	10	10	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	11	11	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	12	12	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	13	13	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	14	14	14	14
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	15	15	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16	16	16
Trinity Hall Monarchs	17	17	17	17

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Jordan Macmoyle '20 [1-2] Peter Taboada '20 [3-4]	Arianna Weber '21 [1-2] Alexander Cammarato '22 [3-4]
Eagles	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-2] Annabel Bornebusch '22 [3-4]	Owen Desanto '23 [1-4]
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20	Henry Gallagher '20
Cougars	Jamie Lynch '23	Jonathan Field '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Connor Feury '22
Colts 1	Colin Guerrera '22	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	John Ruane '21
Colts 2	Aedan Moran '20 [1-2] Duncan Hathaway '20 [3-4]	Hunter Oleynik '22 [1-2]
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20 [1-4]	Nate Ciak '20 [1-2] Gabriel Anama '21 [3-4]
Griffins 1	Joe Paccione '21	Katie Shives '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Thomas Roeber '23	Hayden Warwick '23
Griffins 2	Kevin Brooksbank '23	Alex Kraljic '23
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Topher Lucyk '20	Harrison Quinn '20
Rangers	Will Kernan '23 [1-2] Esteban Pedroza '23 [3-4]	Esteban Pedroza '23 [1-2] Conor Greene '22 [3-4]
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers 1	Alexa Whitman '22	John Cocozza '20
Ranney School	Jack Whitman '23	Tomas Mora '23
Panthers 2	Grace Bray '23	Kieran Collins '25
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 1	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Sophie Harrington '22	Owen Geohegan '22
Bulldogs 2	Chris Payne '20	Tim Buch '22
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4]	Alex Klinov '22 [1-2] Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Rams 1	Christian Pagan '22 [1-4]	Grace Micciche '23 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Bridget Green '21 [1-4]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Rams 2	Kennedy Laureigh '22 [1-2] Chloe Witt '23 [3-4]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2]
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20	Calvin Mcclain '22
Hermits	Patrick York '20	Chase Davis '20
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20 [1-4]	Thomas Rose '20 [1-2] Angelina '22 [3-4]
Purple Roses	Lucas Escandon '22 [1-4]	Emerson Furgason '20 [1-2] Ryan Dailey '20 [3-4]
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22 [1-2] Connor Corbett '22 [3-4]	Connor Corbett '22 [1-2] Lindsay Walsh '23 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Ella Bilow '22	Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs	Ella Bilow '22	Alex Chrystal '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

Navigate

Menu

NJISA 2019 Fall Series 1

Division A

Division B

From the notes