NJISA 2019 Fall Series 6

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 3 7 10
2 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 10 2 12
3 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 7 5 12
4 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 10 7 17
5 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 5 15 20
6 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 13 16 29
7 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 21 9 30
8 St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses 10 23 33
9 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 21 12 33
10 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 18 17 35
11 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 19 23 42
12 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 22 23 45
13 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 25 23 48
14 Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 26 29 55
15 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 30 30 60
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 1 2 3 Ryan Ehnot '22
Bryce Vitiello '23
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 2 3 5 Bridget Green '21
Natalie Shaw '23
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 6 1 7 Declan Botwinick '21
Evan Harrison '21
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3 7 10 Colleen O'Brien '20
Sophie Harrington '22
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 4 6 10 Brooke Schmelz '21
Ashley Abboud '22
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses 5 5 10 Mercedes Escandon '20
Emerson Furgason '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 9 4 13 Brielle Willoughby '20
Kennedy Laureigh '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 10 8 18 Colin Guerrera '22
Andrew Chiles '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 7 12 19 Taylor Warwick '20
Katie Shives '20
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 11 10 21 Jack Whitman '23
Tomas Mora '23
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 12 9 21 Zachary York '20
Calvin Mcclain '22
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 8 14 22 Joey Laplaca '20
Dylan O'Leary '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 14 11 25 Aedan Moran '20
John Ruane '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 13 13 26 Topher Lucyk '20
Harrison Quinn '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 15 15 30 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 TOT Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 1 2 Michaela O'Brien '20
Amelia Buch '20
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 2 3 5 Everett Botwinick '22
Connor Corbett '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 3 4 7 Matthew Bell '20
Connor Feury '22
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 5 2 7 Alexa Whitman '22
Grace Bray '23
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 4 5 9 John Cocozza '20
Kieran Collins '25
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 6 6 12 Patrick York '20
Chase Davis '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 7 8 15 Chloe Witt '23
Alex Klinov '22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 9 7 16 Kennedy Laureigh '22
Joe Mrazek '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 8 9 17 Noah Kuzloski '23
Rodney Wotton '20
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 10 13 23 Owen Desanto '23
Danielle Petry '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 11 12 23 Joe Paccione '21
Hayden Warwick '23
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses 12 11 23 Emma Coakley '20
Mcmanus Cameron '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3 13 10 23 Walter Mehl '21
Nicholas Cunha '23
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 15 14 29 Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21
Conor Greene '22
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 14 DNS 30 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.160+0.16
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (14 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles1818
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 11717
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 21616
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 31515
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 11414
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 21313
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers1212
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 11111
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 21010
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs99
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 188
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 277
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits66
St. Rose High SchoolSt. Rose High School Purple Roses55
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners44

Division B

Team1B2B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles1818
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 11717
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 21616
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 31515
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 11414
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 21313
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers1212
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 11111
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 21010
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs99
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 188
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 277
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits66
St. Rose High SchoolSt. Rose High School Purple Roses55
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners44
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Joey Laplaca '20 Dylan O'Leary '22
Eagles Owen Desanto '23 Danielle Petry '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Ehnot '22 Bryce Vitiello '23
Colts 1 Matthew Bell '20 Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colin Guerrera '22 Andrew Chiles '23
Colts 2 Noah Kuzloski '23 Rodney Wotton '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Aedan Moran '20 John Ruane '21
Colts 3 Walter Mehl '21 Nicholas Cunha '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Taylor Warwick '20 Katie Shives '20
Griffins 1 Joe Paccione '21 Hayden Warwick '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School No Show No Show
Griffins 2 No Show No Show
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Topher Lucyk '20 Harrison Quinn '20
Rangers Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 Conor Greene '22
Ranney School Ranney School Brooke Schmelz '21 Ashley Abboud '22
Panthers 1 Alexa Whitman '22 Grace Bray '23
Ranney School Ranney School Jack Whitman '23 Tomas Mora '23
Panthers 2 John Cocozza '20 Kieran Collins '25
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Bridget Green '21 Natalie Shaw '23
Rams 1 Chloe Witt '23 Alex Klinov '22
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 Kennedy Laureigh '22
Rams 2 Kennedy Laureigh '22 Joe Mrazek '20
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Zachary York '20 Calvin Mcclain '22
Hermits Patrick York '20 Chase Davis '20
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Mercedes Escandon '20 Emerson Furgason '20
Purple Roses Emma Coakley '20 Mcmanus Cameron '22
Toms River North Toms River North Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Mariners Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22

Conditions — 10/30/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 92%  ·  Pressure 1023.6 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 64°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.1 kn
avg  ·  max 5.3 kn
Gusts to 13.0 kn
From ENE (69°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.2 hrs Humidity92% Pressure1023.6 hPa Rain0.02 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Christian Brothers: an underdogs’ day (−0.08)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment −0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.08
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.21)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.08 means a rating gap counts about 7% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Christian Brothers by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 11 labelled days at Christian Brothers, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →