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NJISA 2019 Fall Series 4

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 8 24 32
2 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 16 17 33
3 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 26 13 39
4 Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 31 13 44
5 Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 35 13 48
6 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 21 33 54
7 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 31 29 60
8 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 1 32 37 69
9 Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 39 35 74
10 Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 31 44 75
11 St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 47 28 75
12 Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 2 44 48 92
13 Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 47 49 96
14 Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 59 48 107
15 St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses 46 66 112
16 Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 55 61 116
17 Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 56 72 128
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 3 2 2 1 8 Colleen O'Brien '20
Sophie Harrington '22
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 5 4 1 6 16 Brooke Schmelz '21
Grace Bray '23
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 6 6 7 2 21 Taylor Warwick '20
Nate Ciak '20
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 14 1 3 8 26 Ryan Ehnot '22
Joseph David '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 4 10 5 12 31 Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4]
Nate Ertle '20 [1-2]
Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 7 3 OCS 3 31 Declan Botwinick '21
Evan Harrison '21
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 10 5 6 10 31 Lauren Ehnot '20
Alex Chrystal '20
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 1 1 8 9 14 32 Joey Laplaca '20
Owen Desanto '23
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 13 7 4 11 35 Matthew Bell '20 [1-4]
Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2]
Walter Mehl '21 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 9 9 14 7 39 Thomas Marino '21
Ryan Mcwalters '21
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 2 15 13 11 5 44 Annabel Bornebusch '22
Arianna Weber '21
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses 11 OCS 8 9 46 Mercedes Escandon '20
Thomas Rose '20
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 12 12 10 13 47 Zachary York '20 [1-4]
Patrick York '20 [1-2]
Chris Medolla '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 16 15 12 4 47 Thomas Roeber '23
Gabriel Anama '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 8 11 DNS DNS 55 Topher Lucyk '20
Harrison Quinn '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 2 DNS DNS DNS 56 Bridget Green '21 [1-4]
Alex Klinov '22 [1-2]
Grace Micciche '23 [3-4]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 17 14 13 15 59 Jack Whitman '23
Rowan Johnson '23
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 TOT Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1 2 7 2 2 13 Colin Guerrera '22
Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2 3 4 5 1 13 Aedan Moran '20 [1-2]
Duncan Hathaway '20 [3-4]
John Ruane '21 [1-2]
Hunter Oleynik '22 [3-4]
Toms River North Toms River North Mariners 4 2 3 4 13 Everett Botwinick '22 [1-4]
Connor Corbett '22 [1-2]
Lindsay Walsh '23 [3-4]
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 1 8 3 1 5 17 Alexa Whitman '22
Kieran Collins '25
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1 1 10 12 24 Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-2]
Sophie Harrington '22 [3-4]
Amelia Buch '20 [1-2]
Owen Geohegan '22 [3-4]
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Hermits 5 8 7 8 28 Patrick York '20 [1-4]
Calvin Mcclain '22 [1-2]
Mason Medolla '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 1 9 13 4 3 29 Christian Pagan '22 [1]
Kennedy Laureigh '22 [2-4]
Nate Ertle '20 [1-2]
Joe Mrazek '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1 6 6 12 9 33 Joe Paccione '21
Katie Shives '20
Chatham High School Chatham High School Cougars 11 11 6 7 35 Jamie Lynch '23
Jonathan Field '22
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 1 DNS 5 8 6 37 Jordan Macmoyle '20
Alexander Cammarato '22
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Monarchs 14 9 11 10 44 Ella Bilow '22
Alex Chrystal '20
Ranney School Ranney School Panthers 2 10 10 14 14 48 John Cocozza '20
Tomas Mora '23
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Eagles 2 12 12 13 11 48 Owen Desanto '23 [1-4]
Dylan O'Leary '22 [1-2]
Danielle Petry '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2 13 14 9 13 49 Kevin Brooksbank '23
Alex Kraljic '23
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers 7 DNS DNS DNS 61 Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21
Conor Greene '22
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Purple Roses DNS 15 15 DNS 66 Emma Coakley '20
Emerson Furgason '20
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Rams 2 DNS DNS DNS DNS 72 Chloe Witt '23
Alex Klinov '22
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.140+0.14
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles 11111
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles 22222
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars3333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 14444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 25555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 27777
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers8888
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 19999
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 210101010
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs11111111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 113131313
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 214141414
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits15151515
St. Rose High SchoolSt. Rose High School Purple Roses16161616
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners17171717
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs18181818

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles 11111
Central Regional High SchoolCentral Regional High School Eagles 22222
Chatham High SchoolChatham High School Cougars3333
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 14444
Christian Brothers AcademyChristian Brothers Academy Colts 25555
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 16666
Donovan Catholic High SchoolDonovan Catholic High School Griffins 27777
Marine Academy of Science and TechnologyMarine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers8888
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 19999
Ranney SchoolRanney School Panthers 210101010
Rumson-Fair HavenRumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs11111111
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 113131313
Southern Regional High SchoolSouthern Regional High School Rams 214141414
St. Augustine Prep SchoolSt. Augustine Prep School Hermits15151515
St. Rose High SchoolSt. Rose High School Purple Roses16161616
Toms River NorthToms River North Mariners17171717
Trinity HallTrinity Hall Monarchs18181818
School / Team SkipperCrew
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Joey Laplaca '20 Owen Desanto '23
Eagles 1 Jordan Macmoyle '20 Alexander Cammarato '22
Central Regional High School Central Regional High School Annabel Bornebusch '22 Arianna Weber '21
Eagles 2 Owen Desanto '23 [1-4] Dylan O'Leary '22 [1-2]
Danielle Petry '20 [3-4]
Chatham High School Chatham High School Thomas Marino '21 Ryan Mcwalters '21
Cougars Jamie Lynch '23 Jonathan Field '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Colts 1 Colin Guerrera '22 Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy Christian Brothers Academy Matthew Bell '20 [1-4] Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2]
Walter Mehl '21 [3-4]
Colts 2 Aedan Moran '20 [1-2]
Duncan Hathaway '20 [3-4]		 John Ruane '21 [1-2]
Hunter Oleynik '22 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Griffins 1 Joe Paccione '21 Katie Shives '20
Donovan Catholic High School Donovan Catholic High School Thomas Roeber '23 Gabriel Anama '21
Griffins 2 Kevin Brooksbank '23 Alex Kraljic '23
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Marine Academy of Science and Technology Topher Lucyk '20 Harrison Quinn '20
Rangers Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 Conor Greene '22
Ranney School Ranney School Brooke Schmelz '21 Grace Bray '23
Panthers 1 Alexa Whitman '22 Kieran Collins '25
Ranney School Ranney School Jack Whitman '23 Rowan Johnson '23
Panthers 2 John Cocozza '20 Tomas Mora '23
Rumson-Fair Haven Rumson-Fair Haven Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs Michaela O'Brien '20 [1-2]
Sophie Harrington '22 [3-4]		 Amelia Buch '20 [1-2]
Owen Geohegan '22 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Nate Ertle '20 [1-2]
Natalie Shaw '23 [3-4]
Rams 1 Christian Pagan '22 [1]
Kennedy Laureigh '22 [2-4]		 Nate Ertle '20 [1-2]
Joe Mrazek '20 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School Southern Regional High School Bridget Green '21 [1-4] Alex Klinov '22 [1-2]
Grace Micciche '23 [3-4]
Rams 2 Chloe Witt '23 Alex Klinov '22
St. Augustine Prep School St. Augustine Prep School Zachary York '20 [1-4] Patrick York '20 [1-2]
Chris Medolla '20 [3-4]
Hermits Patrick York '20 [1-4] Calvin Mcclain '22 [1-2]
Mason Medolla '22 [3-4]
St. Rose High School St. Rose High School Mercedes Escandon '20 Thomas Rose '20
Purple Roses Emma Coakley '20 Emerson Furgason '20
Toms River North Toms River North Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Mariners Everett Botwinick '22 [1-4] Connor Corbett '22 [1-2]
Lindsay Walsh '23 [3-4]
Trinity Hall Trinity Hall Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs Ella Bilow '22 Alex Chrystal '20

Conditions — 10/02/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1009.6 hPa

Temperature

87°F
↑ 94°F   ↓ 74°F
Feels like 88°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.7 kn
avg  ·  max 12.7 kn
Gusts to 24.9 kn
From W (266°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover28% Sunshine10.1 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1009.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 11 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Donovan Catholic: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.13)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.00 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast −0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.13 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.13 means a rating gap counts about 11% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Donovan Catholic by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 8 labelled days at Donovan Catholic, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →