NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #7

HostChristian Brothers @ TRYC & OCC
Date05/01/2019
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	7	14	21
2	Ranney School	Panthers 1	12	19	31
3	Toms River North	Mariners	16	19	35
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams	23	13	36
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	32	9	41
6	Toms River South	Indians	29	31	60
7	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	26	40	66
8	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	22	47	69
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	59	25	84
10	Ranney School	Panthers 2	52	34	86
11	Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	43	54	97
12	St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	61	37	98
13	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	62	41	103
14	Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	46	59	105
15	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	33	74	107
16	Oak Knoll School	Royals	57	52	109
17	Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	56	54	110
18	Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	48	64	112

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	1	1	4	1	7	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Ranney School	Panthers 1	2	3	1	6	12	Luke Arnone '19 [1-4] Ashley Abboud '22 [1-2] Blake Epstein '19 [3-4]
Toms River North	Mariners	5	2	7	2	16	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	6	6	3	7	22	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams	4	7	9	3	23	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Bridget Green '21 [3-4] Bridget Green '21 [1-2] Brielle Willoughby '20 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	3	10	8	5	26	Colleen O'Brien '20 Owen Geohegan '22
Toms River South	Indians	11	8	6	4	29	Zach Higham '19 [1-4] Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Trent Morrison '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	7	4	12	9	32	Ryan Ehnot '22 Joseph David '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	5	11	8	33	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-4] Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Hope Maguire '19 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	17	9	2	15	43	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-4] Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	18	12	5	11	46	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-4] Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	12	16	10	10	48	Patrick Modin '19 Harrison Quinn '20
Ranney School	Panthers 2	10	13	13	16	52	Matthew Hamelsky '19 Will Beyer '20
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	13	14	17	12	56	Michael Meehan '22 Kieran Nevins '20
Oak Knoll School	Royals	14	11	14	18	57	Caroline Maher '21 No Show
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	8	18	16	17	59	Matthew Bell '20 Walter Mehl '21
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	15	17	15	14	61	Mercedes Escandon '20 Emerson Furgason '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	16	15	18	13	62	Patrick Cashin '20 John Ruane '21

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	1	1	6	1	9	Ryan Mullins '19 Connor Feury '22
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	2	3	6	13	Tom Green '19 [1-4] Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	5	3	1	5	14	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Claire Haynes '19
Toms River North	Mariners	3	8	5	3	19	Everett Botwinick '22 Connor Corbett '22
Ranney School	Panthers 1	4	9	4	2	19	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4] Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	6	7	2	10	25	Colin Guerrera '22 Aedan Moran '20
Toms River South	Indians	7	5	11	8	31	Leo Krajewski '19 Sonja Krajewski '22
Ranney School	Panthers 2	16	4	7	7	34	George Sima '20 John Cocozza '20
St. Rose High School	Purple Roses	9	6	13	9	37	Emma Coakley '20 Ryan Dailey '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	8	10	10	12	40	Ian Wurch '21 Joey Cooner '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	10	12	15	4	41	Justin Modin '19 Hunter Oleynik '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	12	11	9	15	47	Sloane Nelson '22 Alexander Plaskon '21
Oak Knoll School	Royals	11	14	14	13	52	Anna Schwartz '20 Celia Peri '20
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	14	17	12	11	54	No Show No Show
Central Regional High School	Eagles 2	17	15	8	14	54	Owen Desanto '23 Griffin Petry '22
Central Regional High School	Eagles 1	13	13	17	16	59	Morgan Smith '21 [1-4] Nick Di Corcia '22 [1-2] Alexander Cammarato '22 [3-4]
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Rangers	15	16	16	17	64	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21 Dillon Mccann '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	18	18	DNS	DNS	74	Ella Bilow '22 Alex Chrystal '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.100+0.10

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2019 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	4	4	4	4
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	5	5	5	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	6	6	6	6
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	7	7	7	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	8	8	8	8
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	9	9	9	9
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	10	10	10	10
Oak Knoll School Royals	11	11	11	11
Ranney School Panthers 1	12	12	12	12
Ranney School Panthers 2	13	13	13	13
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	3	3	3	3
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	14	14	14	14
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	15	15	15	15
Southern Regional High School Rams	16	16	16	16
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	17	17	17	17
Toms River North Mariners	18	18	18	18
Toms River South Indians	1	1	1	1
Trinity Hall Monarchs	2	2	2	2

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles 1	4	4	4	4
Central Regional High School Eagles 2	5	5	5	5
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	6	6	6	6
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	7	7	7	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	8	8	8	8
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	9	9	9	9
Marine Academy of Science and Technology Rangers	10	10	10	10
Oak Knoll School Royals	11	11	11	11
Ranney School Panthers 1	12	12	12	12
Ranney School Panthers 2	13	13	13	13
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	3	3	3	3
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	14	14	14	14
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	15	15	15	15
Southern Regional High School Rams	16	16	16	16
St. Rose High School Purple Roses	17	17	17	17
Toms River North Mariners	18	18	18	18
Toms River South Indians	1	1	1	1
Trinity Hall Monarchs	2	2	2	2

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-4]	Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Eagles 1	Morgan Smith '21 [1-4]	Nick Di Corcia '22 [1-2] Alexander Cammarato '22 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Joey Laplaca '20 [1-4]	Danielle Petry '20 [1-2] Dylan O'Leary '22 [3-4]
Eagles 2	Owen Desanto '23	Griffin Petry '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Ryan Ehnot '22	Joseph David '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Connor Feury '22
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	Walter Mehl '21
Colts 2	Colin Guerrera '22	Aedan Moran '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Patrick Cashin '20	John Ruane '21
Colts 3	Justin Modin '19	Hunter Oleynik '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins	Sloane Nelson '22	Alexander Plaskon '21
Marine Academy of Science and Technology	Patrick Modin '19	Harrison Quinn '20
Rangers	Aaron Sigmond-Warner '21	Dillon Mccann '21
Oak Knoll School	Caroline Maher '21	No Show
Royals	Anna Schwartz '20	Celia Peri '20
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19 [1-4]	Ashley Abboud '22 [1-2] Blake Epstein '19 [3-4]
Panthers 1	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4]	Alexa Whitman '22 [1-2] Alexandria Forrest '22 [3-4]
Ranney School	Matthew Hamelsky '19	Will Beyer '20
Panthers 2	George Sima '20	John Cocozza '20
Red Bank Regional High School	Michael Meehan '22	Kieran Nevins '20
Bucs	No Show	No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Owen Geohegan '22
Bulldogs 1	Ian Wurch '21	Joey Cooner '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Bulldogs 2	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Claire Haynes '19
Southern Regional High School	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Bridget Green '21 [3-4]	Bridget Green '21 [1-2] Brielle Willoughby '20 [3-4]
Rams	Tom Green '19 [1-4]	Joe Mrazek '20 [1-2] Alex Klinov '22 [3-4]
St. Rose High School	Mercedes Escandon '20	Emerson Furgason '20
Purple Roses	Emma Coakley '20	Ryan Dailey '20
Toms River North	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Everett Botwinick '22	Connor Corbett '22
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19 [1-4]	Paige Zelenak '19 [1-2] Trent Morrison '22 [3-4]
Indians	Leo Krajewski '19	Sonja Krajewski '22
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20 [1-4]	Ella Bilow '22 [1-2] Hope Maguire '19 [3-4]
Monarchs	Ella Bilow '22	Alex Chrystal '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2019 Spring Wed Series #7

Division A

Division B

From the notes