2018 NJISA Icebreaker

HostTRYC & OCC
Date03/17/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Ranney School	Panthers	12	17	29
2	Southern Regional High School	Rams	25	21	46
3	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	15	32	47
4	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	40	14	54
5	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	28	31	59
6	Toms River North	Mariners	37	30	67
7	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	33	37	70
8	Toms River South	Indians	29	42	71
9	Summit High School	Hilltoppers	40	39	79
10	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	29	53	82
11	Chatham High School	Cougars	56	36	92
12	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	62	52	114
13	Central Regional High School	Eagles	68	55	123
14	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	54	76	130
15	Toms River East	Raiders	72	70	142

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers	6	2	1	1	2	12	Cameron Giblin '19 William Beyer '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	1	3	6	1	15	Michael Ehnot '18 [1-5] Justin Modin '19 [1-2, 5] John Cocozza '20 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	3	2	7	8	25	Dana Haig '18 [1-5] Tom Green '19 [1-4] Nate Ertle '20 [5]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	8	5	7	2	6	28	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Toms River South	Indians	1	4	12	3	9	29	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	3	6	5	8	7	29	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	12	7	4	5	5	33	Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Toms River North	Mariners	9	12	9	4	3	37	Eddie Harrison '18 Declan Botwinick '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	2	8	8	9	13	40	Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	10	10	6	10	4	40	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-5] Sophie Lusty '20 [1-2, 5] Mia Chmelar '19 [3-4]
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	7	11	14	12	10	54	Patrick Modin '19 Joey Cooner '19
Chatham High School	Cougars	14	9	10	11	12	56	Luke Duplessis '20 [1-5] Zoe Papier '19 [1-2, 4] Henry Gallagher '20 [3, 5]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	13	14	11	13	11	62	Matthew Bell '20 Aedan Moran '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles	11	13	15	14	15	68	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Danielle Petry '20
Toms River East	Raiders	15	15	13	15	14	72	Luke Dunton '18 Evan Czenis '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	TOT	Sailors
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	3	3	4	2	2	14	Julia Laforgia '19 Isabelle Grimes '18
Ranney School	Panthers	1	1	1	1	13	17	Brooke Schmelz '21 Matthew Hamelsky '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams	5	7	2	6	1	21	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Tom Green '19 [5] Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Joe Mrazek '20 [3-5]
Toms River North	Mariners	8	4	7	3	8	30	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	2	9	9	5	6	31	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	9	5	10	4	4	32	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Chatham High School	Cougars	6	12	6	9	3	36	Thomas Marino '21 [1-5] Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-4] Zoe Papier '19 [5]
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	4	11	3	8	11	37	Zachary York '20 Chris Medolla '20
Summit High School	Hilltoppers	10	2	8	10	9	39	Patrick Murray '19 [1-5] Hannah Mercurio '20 [1-2, 5] Avery Anderson '21 [3-4]
Toms River South	Indians	7	OCS	5	7	7	42	Alexa Carles '19 [1-5] Trent Morrison '22 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-5]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	12	10	13	12	5	52	Patrick Cashin '20 [1-5] Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2, 5] Bradford Iturralde '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	13	6	11	11	12	53	Joseph Paccione '21 Gabriel Anama '21
Central Regional High School	Eagles	11	8	12	14	10	55	Joey Laplaca '20 Owen Desanto '23
Toms River East	Raiders	14	13	14	13	DNS	70	Loring Dunton '18 No Show
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	15	14	15	DNF	DNS	76	Taylor Rice '19 Chris Payne '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1	3	3	5
Chatham High School Cougars	2	2	4	4	6
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	3	3	5	5	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	4	4	6	6	8
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	5	5	7	7	9
Ranney School Panthers	6	6	8	8	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	7	7	9	9	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	8	8	10	10	12
Southern Regional High School Rams	9	9	11	11	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	10	10	12	12	14
Summit High School Hilltoppers	11	11	13	13	15
Toms River East Raiders	12	12	14	14	1
Toms River North Mariners	13	13	15	15	2
Toms River South Indians	14	14	1	1	3
Trinity Hall Monarchs	15	15	2	2	4

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B
Central Regional High School Eagles	2	2	4	4	6
Chatham High School Cougars	3	3	5	5	7
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	4	4	6	6	8
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	5	5	7	7	9
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	6	6	8	8	10
Ranney School Panthers	7	7	9	9	11
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	8	8	10	10	12
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	9	9	11	11	13
Southern Regional High School Rams	10	10	12	12	14
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	11	11	13	13	15
Summit High School Hilltoppers	12	12	14	14	1
Toms River East Raiders	13	13	15	15	2
Toms River North Mariners	14	14	1	1	3
Toms River South Indians	15	15	2	2	4
Trinity Hall Monarchs	1	1	3	3	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Reilly Fitzgerald '18	Danielle Petry '20
Eagles	Joey Laplaca '20	Owen Desanto '23
Chatham High School	Luke Duplessis '20 [1-5]	Zoe Papier '19 [1-2, 4] Henry Gallagher '20 [3, 5]
Cougars	Thomas Marino '21 [1-5]	Yumtsokyi Bhum '19 [1-4] Zoe Papier '19 [5]
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18 [1-5]	Justin Modin '19 [1-2, 5] John Cocozza '20 [3-4]
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Matthew Bell '20	Aedan Moran '20
Colts 2	Patrick Cashin '20 [1-5]	Rodney Wotton '20 [1-2, 5] Bradford Iturralde '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins	Joseph Paccione '21	Gabriel Anama '21
Ranney School	Cameron Giblin '19	William Beyer '20
Panthers	Brooke Schmelz '21	Matthew Hamelsky '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Patrick Modin '19	Joey Cooner '19
Bulldogs 1	Taylor Rice '19	Chris Payne '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 2	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18 [1-5]	Tom Green '19 [1-4] Nate Ertle '20 [5]
Rams	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-4] Tom Green '19 [5]	Nate Ertle '20 [1-2] Joe Mrazek '20 [3-5]
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Patrick York '20
Hermits	Zachary York '20	Chris Medolla '20
Summit High School	Thomas Quinn '18 [1-5]	Sophie Lusty '20 [1-2, 5] Mia Chmelar '19 [3-4]
Hilltoppers	Patrick Murray '19 [1-5]	Hannah Mercurio '20 [1-2, 5] Avery Anderson '21 [3-4]
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18	Evan Czenis '20
Raiders	Loring Dunton '18	No Show
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Declan Botwinick '21
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Alexa Carles '19 [1-5]	Trent Morrison '22 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-5]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19	Isabelle Grimes '18

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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2018 NJISA Icebreaker

Division A

Division B

From the notes