| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | 8–1 |
| 2 |  |
Ranney School | Panthers | 5–4 |
| 3 |  |
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | 4–5 |
| 4 |  |
Toms River South | Indians | 1–8 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 4,364 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-21, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 9 of 12 matches (75%) with a log-loss of 0.575 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.20 ± 0.71: a typical event, more orderly than 27% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs | 1 | 6.12 school +0.15 | Colleen O'Brien / Morgan Rice 2.21 Michaela O'Brien / Claire Haynes 2.20 Shaanti Choi-Bose / Amelia Buch 1.51 | 71% | 5–1 (83%) | +0.7 |
| 2 | Ranney School Panthers | 2 | 5.22 school +0.39 | Luke Arnone / Blake Epstein 3.04 Hubert Wang / William Beyer 3–3 Brooke Schmelz / Matthew Hamelsky 1.81 3–3 Brooke Schmelz / Catherine Vucetic 1.79 2–1 Hubert Wang / Catherine Vucetic 2–1 | 59% | 5–4 (56%) | −0.3 |
| 3 | Christian Brothers Academy Colts | 3 | 4.66 school −0.16 | Michael Ehnot / John Cocozza 2.09 Jack Harrington / Justin Modin 1.38 Ryan Mullins / Joseph David 1.33 | 32% | 1–5 (17%) | −0.9 |
| 4 | Toms River South Indians | 4 | 3.01 | Zach Higham / Paige Zelenak 1.45 Alexa Carles / Kyle Braden 0.67 Leo Krajewski / Jack Parks 0.88 | 15% | 1–2 (33%) | +0.6 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4 | Toms River South | 3.01 | 4.33 | 1–2 | 0.5 | +1.33 | 0.4 | 39% |
| 1 | Rumson-Fair Haven | 6.12 | 7.04 | 5–1 | 4.3 | +0.91 | 0.4 | 44% |
| 2 | Ranney School | 5.22 | 4.97 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 3 | Christian Brothers Academy | 4.66 | 3.53 | 1–5 | 1.9 | −1.13 | 0.5 | 91% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zach Higham | Toms River South | 1.45 | 2.77 | 1–2 | 0.5 | +1.33 | 0.4 | 39% |
| Alexa Carles | Toms River South | 0.67 | 1.99 | 1–2 | 0.5 | +1.33 | 0.4 | 39% |
| Hubert Wang | Ranney School | -0.03 | -0.28 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 74% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Christian Brothers Academy | 75% | |
| 1 | 2 | Ranney School | Toms River South | 85% | |
| 1 | 4 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Ranney School | 66% | |
| 1 | 6 | Ranney School | Christian Brothers Academy | 60% | |
| 2 | 7 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Christian Brothers Academy | 76% | |
| 2 | 8 | Ranney School | Toms River South | 85% | |
| 2 | 10 | Ranney School | Rumson-Fair Haven | 33% | upset |
| 2 | 12 | Ranney School | Christian Brothers Academy | 60% | |
| 3 | 13 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Christian Brothers Academy | 76% | |
| 3 | 14 | Toms River South | Ranney School | 15% | upset |
| 3 | 16 | Rumson-Fair Haven | Ranney School | 67% | |
| 3 | 18 | Christian Brothers Academy | Ranney School | 40% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts | 4-5-6 |
| 2 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Colts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Indians | 3-4-5 |
| 4 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Bulldogs | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Indians | 1-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Colts | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Colts | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Panthers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Indians | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Colts | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Indians | 3-4-6 |
| 10 | |
Panthers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 |
| 11 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Indians | 4-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Panthers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Colts | 4-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Colts | 2-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Indians | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-6 |
| 15 | |
Colts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Indians | 3-4-5 |
| 16 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Panthers | 3-4-5 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Indians | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Colts | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Panthers | 2-3-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Rumson-Fair Haven | Bulldogs | Colleen O'Brien '20 Michaela O'Brien '20 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 |
Morgan Rice '21 Claire Haynes '19 Amelia Buch '20 |
|
Ranney School | Panthers | Brooke Schmelz '21 Hubert Wang '21 Luke Arnone '19 |
Matthew Hamelsky '19 Catherine Vucetic '19 William Beyer '20 Blake Epstein '19 |
|
Christian Brothers Academy | Colts | Jack Harrington '18 Michael Ehnot '18 Ryan Mullins '19 |
Justin Modin '19 John Cocozza '20 Joseph David '20 |
|
Toms River South | Indians | Alexa Carles '19 Leo Krajewski '19 Zach Higham '19 |
Kyle Braden '21 Jack Parks '21 Paige Zelenak '19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
