Ranney School '21
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| -0.22 (fleet -0.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 5–4 (56%) as crew 11–0 (100%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 5–4 | 6–0 |
| Fall 2017 | 1 | — | 5–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 16–4 against 14.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 2 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | NJISA Spring Team Champs | skipper | -0.03 | -0.28 | 5–4 | 5.4 | −0.25 | 0.1 | 74% |
| 2018-04-09 | NJISA Spring Team Meet 1 | crew | -0.16 | 2.84 | 6–0 | 5.1 | ≥+3.00 | 1.3 | 36% |
| 2017-10-15 | NJISA 2017 Fall Team Race Qualifer | crew | 2.55 | 5.55 | 5–0 | 4.3 | ≥+3.00 | 1.0 | 47% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NJISA Wed Series #5 | Skipper | B | 2 | 14.0 | — |
| NJISA Wed Series #6 | Skipper | B | 4 | 11.8 | -0.73 |
| NJISA Wed Series #7 | Skipper | A | 3 | 15.0 | -3.03 |
| NJISA Wed Series No. 4 | Skipper | A | 4 | 13.8 | -1.99 |
| NJISA Wed Series #8 | Crew | B | 2 | 4.0 | — |
| NJISA Spring Team Meet 1 | Crew | TR | 6 | 100% | — |
| NJISA Spring Team Champs | Skipper | TR | 9 | 56% | — |
| NJISA 2018 Wed Series #3 | Skipper | A | 4 | 16.5 | -3.06 |
| 2018 NJ State High School Champs | Crew | A | 2 | 2.0 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NJISA Wed Fleet Series #2 | Crew | A | 2 | 9.5 | — |
| NJISA Wed Fall Series #4 | Crew | A | 1 | 14.0 | — |
| NJISA Wed Fall Fleet Series #3 | Crew | B | 3 | 14.3 | — |
| NJISA 2017 Fall Team Race Qualifer | Crew | TR | 13 | 100% | — |
| NJISA 2017 Wed Fall Series #5 | Skipper | B | 2 | 13.5 | -0.99 |
| NJISA 2017 Fall Wed Series #6 | Skipper | B | 3 | 15.7 | -3.72 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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