NJISA Wed Series #5

HostOCC & TRYC
Date04/25/2018
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Southern Regional High School	Rams	13	9	22
2	Toms River North	Mariners	25	7	32
3	Bulldogs 1	Bulldogs 1	12	28	40
4	Bulldogs 2	Bulldogs 2	10	36	46
5	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	23	24	47
6	Toms River South	Indians	23	25	48
7	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	40	11	51
8	Ranney School	Panthers	25	46	71
9	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	41	31	72
10	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	33	41	74
11	Central Regional High School	Eagles	58	27	85
12	Pirates 1	Pirates 1	31	55	86
13	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	51	36	87
14	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	43	50	93
15	Toms River East	Raiders	52	54	106
16	Pirates 2	Pirates 2	64	64	128

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Bulldogs 2	Bulldogs 2	3	2	3	2	10
Bulldogs 1	Bulldogs 1	1	1	9	1	12
Southern Regional High School	Rams	2	4	2	5	13	Dana Haig '18 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3-4] Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Toms River South	Indians	11	5	4	3	23	Zach Higham '19 Trent Morrison '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	13	3	1	6	23	Michael Ehnot '18 John Cocozza '20
Ranney School	Panthers	6	7	5	7	25	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4] William Beyer '20 [1-2] Catherine Vucetic '19 [3-4]
Toms River North	Mariners	7	8	6	4	25	Eddie Harrison '18 Connor Corbett '22
Pirates 1	Pirates 1	4	12	7	8	31
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	8	6	8	11	33	Zachary York '20 [1, 3] Michael Pinto '19 [2, 4] Michael Pinto '19 [1, 3] Zachary York '20 [2, 4]
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	9	11	10	10	40	Lauren Ehnot '20 Alex Chrystal '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	12	9	11	9	41	Michael Laguardia '21 Aedan Moran '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	5	13	12	13	43	Taylor Warwick '20 Joseph Paccione '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	10	14	13	14	51	Patrick Cashin '20 Rodney Wotton '20
Toms River East	Raiders	15	10	15	12	52	Luke Dunton '18 [1-4] Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [1-2] Kyle Braden '21 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	14	15	14	15	58	Aris Condos '20 Morgan Smith '21
Pirates 2	Pirates 2	16	16	16	16	64

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	TOT	Sailors
Toms River North	Mariners	2	1	1	3	7	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams	3	2	2	2	9	Brielle Willoughby '20 Joe Mrazek '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	1	6	3	1	11	Julia Laforgia '19 Isabelle Grimes '18
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	11	4	4	5	24	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Toms River South	Indians	7	3	6	9	25	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3-4] Aiden Hjembo '20 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-4]
Central Regional High School	Eagles	8	8	7	4	27	Peter Taboada '20 Danielle Petry '20
Bulldogs 1	Bulldogs 1	6	7	8	7	28
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 3	5	5	9	12	31	Matthew Bell '20 [1-2] Luke Caponegro '18 [3-4] Walter Mehl '21 [1-2]
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	4	10	12	10	36	Justin Modin '19 Bradford Iturralde '20
Bulldogs 2	Bulldogs 2	9	9	5	13	36
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	10	11	14	6	41	Patrick York '20 [1-4] Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Ranney School	Panthers	14	14	10	8	46	Hubert Wang '21 [1-2] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [3-4] Blake Epstein '19 [1-2] John Cocozza '20 [3-4]
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins	12	13	11	14	50	Alexander Plaskon '21 Gabriel Anama '21
Toms River East	Raiders	15	15	13	11	54	Loring Dunton '18 Evan Czenis '20
Pirates 1	Pirates 1	13	12	15	15	55
Pirates 2	Pirates 2	16	16	16	16	64

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.130+0.13

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2018 (3 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A
Central Regional High School Eagles	16	16	16	16
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	14	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	13	13	13	13
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	12	12	12	12
Ranney School Panthers	11	11	11	11
Bulldogs 1 Bulldogs 1	10	10	10	10
Bulldogs 2 Bulldogs 2	9	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams	8	8	8	8
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	7	7	7	7
Toms River East Raiders	6	6	6	6
Toms River North Mariners	5	5	5	5
Toms River South Indians	4	4	4	4
Trinity Hall Monarchs	3	3	3	3
Pirates 1 Pirates 1	2	2	2	2
Pirates 2 Pirates 2	1	1	1	1

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B
Central Regional High School Eagles	16	16	16	16
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	15	15	15	15
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	14	14	14	14
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 3	13	13	13	13
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins	12	12	12	12
Ranney School Panthers	11	11	11	11
Bulldogs 1 Bulldogs 1	10	10	10	10
Bulldogs 2 Bulldogs 2	9	9	9	9
Southern Regional High School Rams	8	8	8	8
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	7	7	7	7
Toms River East Raiders	6	6	6	6
Toms River North Mariners	5	5	5	5
Toms River South Indians	4	4	4	4
Trinity Hall Monarchs	3	3	3	3
Pirates 1 Pirates 1	2	2	2	2
Pirates 2 Pirates 2	1	1	1	1

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Aris Condos '20	Morgan Smith '21
Eagles	Peter Taboada '20	Danielle Petry '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	John Cocozza '20
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Patrick Cashin '20	Rodney Wotton '20
Colts 2	Justin Modin '19	Bradford Iturralde '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Laguardia '21	Aedan Moran '20
Colts 3	Matthew Bell '20 [1-2] Luke Caponegro '18 [3-4]	Walter Mehl '21 [1-2]
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Joseph Paccione '21
Griffins	Alexander Plaskon '21	Gabriel Anama '21
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21 [1-4]	William Beyer '20 [1-2] Catherine Vucetic '19 [3-4]
Panthers	Hubert Wang '21 [1-2] Matthew Hamelsky '19 [3-4]	Blake Epstein '19 [1-2] John Cocozza '20 [3-4]
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18 [1-2] Tom Green '19 [3-4]	Brielle Willoughby '20 [1-2] Nate Ertle '20 [3-4]
Rams	Brielle Willoughby '20	Joe Mrazek '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Zachary York '20 [1, 3] Michael Pinto '19 [2, 4]	Michael Pinto '19 [1, 3] Zachary York '20 [2, 4]
Hermits	Patrick York '20 [1-4]	Chris Medolla '20 [1-2] Chase Davis '20 [3-4]
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18 [1-4]	Alexandria Carvhalo '21 [1-2] Kyle Braden '21 [3-4]
Raiders	Loring Dunton '18	Evan Czenis '20
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Connor Corbett '22
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Trent Morrison '21
Indians	Alexa Carles '19 [1-2] Leo Krajewski '19 [3-4]	Aiden Hjembo '20 [1-2] Jack Parks '21 [3-4]
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Alex Chrystal '20
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19	Isabelle Grimes '18

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA Wed Series #5

Division A

Division B

From the notes