NJISA 2017 Wed Fall Series #5

HostTRYC & OCC
Date10/18/2017
TypeIn-League
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	5	10	15
2	Toms River North	Mariners	11	7	18
3	Ranney School	Panthers 1	15	4	19
4	Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	6	14	20
5	Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	9	12	21
6	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	25	6	31
7	St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	21	12	33
8	Toms River South	Indians	12	24	36
9	Trinity Hall	Monarchs	24	12	36
10	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	14	23	37
11	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	21	22	43
12	Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	31	14	45
13	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	13	34	47
14	Ranney School	Panthers 2	22	27	49
15	Central Regional High School	Eagles	23	28	51
16	Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	27	29	56
17	Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	27	36	63
18	Toms River East	Raiders	36	28	64

School	Team	R1	R2	TOT	Sailors
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	4	1	5	Michael Ehnot '18 Justin Modin '19
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	3	3	6	Tom Green '19 Bridget Green '21
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	1	8	9	Dana Haig '18 Brielle Willoughby '20
Toms River North	Mariners	9	2	11	Eddie Harrison '18 Evan Harrison '21
Toms River South	Indians	8	4	12	Zach Higham '19 Paige Zelenak '19
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	6	7	13	Taylor Warwick '20 Nate Ciak '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	5	9	14	Jack Harrington '18 Rodney Wotton '20
Ranney School	Panthers 1	2	13	15	Luke Arnone '19 Blake Epstein '19
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	7	14	21	Michael Pinto '19 Patrick York '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	15	6	21	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19 Oliva Pasquale '19
Ranney School	Panthers 2	17	5	22	Brooke Schmelz '21 Catherine Vucetic '19
Central Regional High School	Eagles	12	11	23	Peter Taboada '20 Arianna Weber '21
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	14	10	24	Lauren Ehnot '20 Hope Maguire '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	13	12	25	Colleen O'Brien '20 Sophie Harrington '22
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	10	17	27	Vincent Priolo '19 Eric He '18
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	11	16	27	Molly Meehan '19 Lauren Dorval '18
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	16	15	31	Brendan Gilman '18 Lauren Dorval '18
Toms River East	Raiders	18	18	36	Luke Dunton '18 Loring Dunton '18

School	Team	R1	R2	TOT	Sailors
Ranney School	Panthers 1	3	1	4	Cameron Giblin '19 William Beyer '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 2	1	5	6	Michaela O'Brien '20 Amelia Buch '20
Toms River North	Mariners	4	3	7	Declan Botwinick '21 Evan Harrison '21
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 1	2	8	10	Ryan Mullins '19 Joseph David '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams 1	6	6	12	Brielle Willoughby '20 Nate Ertle '20
Trinity Hall	Monarchs	8	4	12	Julia Laforgia '19 Whitney Butterfield '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Hermits	10	2	12	Zachary York '20 Chase Davis '20
Southern Regional High School	Rams 2	5	9	14	Bridget Green '21 Joe Mrazek '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Caseys	7	7	14	Molly Meehan '19 Genieve Hand '21
Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs 1	12	10	22	Patrick Modin '19 Danny Raphael '19
Christian Brothers Academy	Colts 2	9	14	23	Michael Laguardia '21 Bradford Iturralde '20
Toms River South	Indians	13	11	24	Alexa Carles '19 Chris Krause '19
Ranney School	Panthers 2	11	16	27	Hubert Wang '21 Anson He '20
Central Regional High School	Eagles	15	13	28	Reilly Fitzgerald '18 Danielle Petry '20
Toms River East	Raiders	16	12	28	Joseph Laplaca '19 Shawn Tirone '21
Red Bank Regional High School	Bucs	14	15	29	Michael Meehan '22 Kieran Nevins '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 1	17	17	34	Joseph Paccione '21 Gabriel Anama '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Griffins 2	18	18	36	Anthony Steed '20 Katie Shives '20

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.140+0.14

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2016 (25 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 1	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 2	7	7
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	8	8
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	14	14
Toms River East Raiders	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16
Toms River South Indians	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18

Division B

Team	1B	2B
Central Regional High School Eagles	1	1
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 1	2	2
Christian Brothers Academy Colts 2	3	3
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 1	4	4
Donovan Catholic High School Griffins 2	5	5
Ranney School Panthers 1	6	6
Ranney School Panthers 2	7	7
Red Bank Catholic High School Caseys	8	8
Red Bank Regional High School Bucs	9	9
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 1	10	10
Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs 2	11	11
Southern Regional High School Rams 1	12	12
Southern Regional High School Rams 2	13	13
St. Augustine Prep School Hermits	14	14
Toms River East Raiders	15	15
Toms River North Mariners	16	16
Toms River South Indians	17	17
Trinity Hall Monarchs	18	18

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Central Regional High School	Peter Taboada '20	Arianna Weber '21
Eagles	Reilly Fitzgerald '18	Danielle Petry '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Michael Ehnot '18	Justin Modin '19
Colts 1	Ryan Mullins '19	Joseph David '20
Christian Brothers Academy	Jack Harrington '18	Rodney Wotton '20
Colts 2	Michael Laguardia '21	Bradford Iturralde '20
Donovan Catholic High School	Taylor Warwick '20	Nate Ciak '20
Griffins 1	Joseph Paccione '21	Gabriel Anama '21
Donovan Catholic High School	Vincent Priolo '19	Eric He '18
Griffins 2	Anthony Steed '20	Katie Shives '20
Ranney School	Luke Arnone '19	Blake Epstein '19
Panthers 1	Cameron Giblin '19	William Beyer '20
Ranney School	Brooke Schmelz '21	Catherine Vucetic '19
Panthers 2	Hubert Wang '21	Anson He '20
Red Bank Catholic High School	Brendan Gilman '18	Lauren Dorval '18
Caseys	Molly Meehan '19	Genieve Hand '21
Red Bank Regional High School	Molly Meehan '19	Lauren Dorval '18
Bucs	Michael Meehan '22	Kieran Nevins '20
Rumson-Fair Haven	Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Oliva Pasquale '19
Bulldogs 1	Patrick Modin '19	Danny Raphael '19
Rumson-Fair Haven	Colleen O'Brien '20	Sophie Harrington '22
Bulldogs 2	Michaela O'Brien '20	Amelia Buch '20
Southern Regional High School	Dana Haig '18	Brielle Willoughby '20
Rams 1	Brielle Willoughby '20	Nate Ertle '20
Southern Regional High School	Tom Green '19	Bridget Green '21
Rams 2	Bridget Green '21	Joe Mrazek '20
St. Augustine Prep School	Michael Pinto '19	Patrick York '20
Hermits	Zachary York '20	Chase Davis '20
Toms River East	Luke Dunton '18	Loring Dunton '18
Raiders	Joseph Laplaca '19	Shawn Tirone '21
Toms River North	Eddie Harrison '18	Evan Harrison '21
Mariners	Declan Botwinick '21	Evan Harrison '21
Toms River South	Zach Higham '19	Paige Zelenak '19
Indians	Alexa Carles '19	Chris Krause '19
Trinity Hall	Lauren Ehnot '20	Hope Maguire '19
Monarchs	Julia Laforgia '19	Whitney Butterfield '20

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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NJISA 2017 Wed Fall Series #5

Division A

Division B

From the notes