Christian Brothers Academy '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.95 (fleet 1.55) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.01 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 14–31 (31%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 3 | 8–21 | — |
| Fall 2017 | 2 | 6–10 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 5 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 14–31 against 16.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 4 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | MASSA Team Championship Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.34 | 0.66 | 4–13 | 5.4 | −0.68 | 0.5 | 88% |
| 2018-04-21 | NJISA Spring Team Champs | skipper | 1.38 | 0.25 | 1–5 | 1.9 | −1.13 | 0.5 | 91% |
| 2018-04-09 | NJISA Spring Team Meet 1 | skipper | 1.31 | 0.70 | 3–3 | 3.4 | −0.61 | 0.1 | 85% |
| 2017-10-15 | NJISA 2017 Fall Team Race Qualifer | skipper | 1.18 | 1.30 | 4–7 | 3.8 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 58% |
| 2017-10-04 | NJISA Fall TEAM 1 | skipper | 1.08 | 0.67 | 2–3 | 2.2 | −0.41 | 0.1 | 81% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jack Harrington |  Rutgers University |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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