MASSA Team Championship Baker Qualifier

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 4,567 team race matches sailed before 2018-04-28, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 66 of 87 matches (76%) with a log-loss of 0.451 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.35 ± 0.24: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 21% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Severn School Admirals	2	8.80 school +0.45	Mariner Fagan / Caroline Mcneil 3.10 14–3 Jordan Bruce / Ryan Wahba 2.24 14–3 Maddie Hawkins / Abby Tindall 2.93 15–2 Maddie Hawkins / Blair Reilly 2.99 2–1 Mariner Fagan / Camille White 2.96 3–0 Caroline Bayless / Ryan Wahba 2.61 3–0	85%	17–3 (85%)	−0.0
2	Christchurch School Seahorses	1	9.01	Robert Bragg / Sally Johnson 3.38 13–3 Mariana Guzman Casas / Galt Oliver 2.50 14–0 Benton Amthor / Nathan Smith 3.01 10–0 Benton Amthor / Galt Oliver 2.98 3–3 Nathan Smith / Reese Bragg 2.88 3–3 Robert Bragg / Reese Bragg 3.31 4–0 Nathan Smith / Carson Rozell 2.75 4–0	89%	17–3 (85%)	−0.9
3	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	3	6.68	Ellie Maus / Matt Wright 2.53 Chris Robertson / Sam Beck 2.01 12–6 Parker Purrington / Sarah Smith 2.21 11–5 Parker Purrington / Jon Krueger 1.96 1–1 Parker Purrington / Chris Robertson 2.19 2–0 Sarah Smith / Jenks Britt 1.80 2–0	60%	14–6 (70%)	+2.0
4	Locust Valley High School Falcons	8	4.44 school +0.35	Jack Denatale / Caroline Martocci 1.67 Nick Chisari / Julianna Corso 1.49 Torey Chisari / Bernadette Gunther 0.76	31%	10–10 (50%)	+3.9
5	Rumson-Fair Haven Bulldogs	4	6.09 school +0.20	Colleen O'Brien / Amelia Buch 2.15 Michaela O'Brien / Claire Haynes 2.19 Shaanti Choi-Bose / Joey Cooner 1.34	59%	8–9 (47%)	−2.1
6	St. Mary's High School (MD) Saints	5	5.00 school −0.07	Eddie Langemak / Allison Forsyth 1.18 James Golden / Amelia Johnson 2.19 Michael Bisson / Juliette Troxell 1.60	39%	7–10 (41%)	+0.4
7	Broadneck High School Bruins	9	3.99 school +0.47	Emma Snead / Nicole Ryan 1.83 Katherine Bennett / Sean Jahnige 2.09 4–5 Sander Miller / Maggie Mckay 0.65 4–5 Sander Miller / Lucien Parker 0.49 2–6 Sean Jahnige / Julia Tucker 2–6	27%	6–11 (35%)	+1.3
8	Annapolis High School Panthers	6	4.47 school −0.09	Kimberly Leonard / Ava Walker 1.70 Nicholas Salvesen / Shalom Fadullon 2.18 Thomas Johnson / Isabella Fadullon 0.51	35%	4–13 (24%)	−2.0
9	Christian Brothers Academy Colts	7	4.51 school −0.23	Michael Ehnot / John Cocozza 2.04 Jack Harrington / Justin Modin 1.34 Ryan Mullins / Joseph David 1.31	32%	4–13 (24%)	−1.4
10	Southwestern Central High School Trojans	10	2.98	No Show / No Show 0–18 No Show / No Show	13%	0–9 (0%)	−1.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
4	Locust Valley High School	4.44	6.07	10–10	6.1	+1.63	3.6	2%
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	6.68	7.63	14–6	12.0	+0.95	1.0	19%
7	Broadneck High School	3.99	4.66	6–11	4.7	+0.67	0.5	29%
6	St. Mary's High School (MD)	5.00	5.16	7–10	6.6	+0.16	0.0	53%
1	Severn School	8.80	8.78	17–3	17.0	−0.02	0.0	67%
2	Christchurch School	9.01	8.38	17–3	17.9	−0.62	0.3	86%
9	Christian Brothers Academy	4.51	3.83	4–13	5.4	−0.68	0.5	88%
5	Rumson-Fair Haven	6.09	5.12	8–9	10.1	−0.96	1.1	94%
8	Annapolis High School	4.47	3.47	4–13	6.0	−1.01	1.1	94%
10	Southwestern Central High School	2.98	-0.02	0–9	1.2	≤−3.00	1.7	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Mariana Guzman Casas	Christchurch School	2.50	5.50	14–0	13.4	≥+3.00	0.8	55%
Torey Chisari	Locust Valley High School	0.76	2.40	10–10	6.1	+1.63	3.6	2%
Sander Miller	Broadneck High School	0.65	1.32	6–11	4.7	+0.67	0.5	29%
Eddie Langemak	St. Mary's High School (MD)	1.18	1.34	7–10	6.6	+0.16	0.0	53%
James Golden	St. Mary's High School (MD)	2.19	2.35	7–10	6.6	+0.16	0.0	53%
Kimberly Leonard	Annapolis High School	1.70	0.69	4–13	6.0	−1.01	1.1	94%
Thomas Johnson	Annapolis High School	0.51	-0.49	4–13	6.0	−1.01	1.1	94%
No Show	Southwestern Central High School	0.55	-2.45	0–9	1.2	≤−3.00	1.7	>99%
No Show	Southwestern Central High School	0.92	-2.08	0–18	2.4	≤−3.00	3.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Admirals	1-3-6	def.		Seahorses	2-4-5
2		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Panthers	3-4-5
3		Saints	1-4-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-3-6
4		Falcons	1-2-3	def.		Bruins	4-5-6
5		Colts	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
6		Oaks	1-2-5	def.		Seahorses	3-4-6
7		Saints	2-3-4	def.		Panthers	1-5-6
8		Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.		Bruins	3-4-5
9		Falcons	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
10		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Colts	4-5-6
11		Oaks	2-3-4	def.		Saints	1-5-6
12		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Bruins	4-5-6
13		Panthers	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
14		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
15		Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.		Colts	3-5-6
16		Seahorses	1-2-4	def.		Saints	3-5-6
17		Panthers	1-2-6	def.		Bruins	3-4-5
18		Oaks	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
19		Admirals	1-2-4	def.		Bulldogs	3-5-6
20		Falcons	1-2-5	def.		Colts	3-4-6
21		Seahorses	1-3-5	def.		Panthers	2-4-6
22		Saints	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
23		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Oaks	4-5-6
24		Falcons	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-6
25		Bruins	1-2-5	def.		Colts	3-4-6
26		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
27		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Panthers	4-5-6
28		Falcons	2-3-4	def.		Oaks	1-5-6
29		Saints	1-2-5	def.		Bruins	3-4-6
30		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6
31		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Colts	4-5-6
32		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Panthers	3-5-6
33		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Saints	4-5-6
34		Bruins	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
35		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-6
36		Colts	1-3-5	def.		Panthers	2-4-6
37		Falcons	2-3-4	def.		Saints	1-5-6
38		Bruins	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
39		Oaks	1-2-5	def.		Colts	3-4-6
40		Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.		Panthers	1-5-6
41		Seahorses	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
42		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Bruins	4-5-6
43		Saints	1-2-3	def.		Colts	4-5-6
44		Oaks	1-2-5	def.		Bulldogs	3-4-6
45		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Trojans	4-5-6 DNS,DNS,DNS
46		Seahorses	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
47		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
48		Saints	2-3-4	def.		Panthers	1-5-6
49		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Colts	3-4-5
50		Bruins	1-3-6	def.		Falcons	2-4-5
51		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Saints	4-5-6
52		Oaks	1-3-5	def.		Admirals	2-4-6
53		Panthers	1-2-3	def.		Colts	4-5-6
54		Bulldogs	1-2-6	def.		Falcons	3-4-5
55		Bruins	1-3-5	def.		Saints	2-4-6
56		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Panthers	4-5-6
57		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Colts	4-5-6
58		Bulldogs	1-2-4	def.		Saints	3-5-6
59		Falcons	1-2-6	def.		Oaks	3-4-5
60		Panthers	1-3-4	def.		Bruins	2-5-6
61		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Colts	4-5-6
62		Oaks	1-3-4	def.		Saints	2-5-6
63		Bulldogs	1-2-3	def.		Panthers	4-5-6
64		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
65		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Bruins	4-5-6
66		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Panthers	3-4-5
67		Admirals	1-3-4	def.		Saints	2-5-6
68		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Bulldogs	4-5-6
69		Colts	1-2-6	def.		Bruins	3-4-5
70		Admirals	1-2-4	def.		Panthers	3-5-6
71		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
72		Bruins	1-4-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-3-6
73		Falcons	1-2-4	def.		Colts	3-5-6
74		Admirals	1-2-6	def.		Seahorses	3-4-5
75		Oaks	1-2-3	def.		Bruins	4-5-6
76		Saints	1-4-5	def.		Falcons	2-3-6
77		Bulldogs	2-3-4	def.		Colts	1-5-6
78		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Bruins	4-5-6
79		Falcons	2-3-4	def.		Panthers	1-5-6
80		Oaks	1-4-5	def.		Bulldogs	2-3-6
81		Colts	1-2-6	def.		Saints	3-4-5
82		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Oaks	3-4-6
83		Admirals	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
84		Seahorses	1-2-3	def.		Falcons	4-5-6
85		Oaks	1-2-6	def.		Admirals	3-4-5
86		Oaks	1-2-5	def.		Falcons	3-4-6
87		Seahorses	1-2-5	def.		Admirals	3-4-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Severn School	Admirals	Caroline Bayless '19 Jordan Bruce '20 Madeline Hawkins '20 Mariner Fagan '20	Ryan Wahba '20 Blair Reilly '18 Abby Tindall '19 Caroline Mcneil '18 Camille White '18
	Christchurch School	Seahorses	Benton Amthor '19 Boyd Bragg '19 Mariana Guzman Casas '19 Nathan Smith '20	Galt Oliver '18 Nathan Smith '20 Sally Johnson '18 Reese Bragg '21 Carson Rozell '19
	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Chris Robertson '19 Ellie Maus '18 Parker Purrington '19 Sarah Smith '18	Sam Beck '21 Matt Wright '19 Sarah Smith '18 Jon Krueger '20 Chris Robertson '19 Jenks Britt '20
	Locust Valley High School	Falcons	Jack Denatale '18 Nick Chisari '18 Torey Chisari '20	Caroline Martocci '18 Julianna Corso '18 Bernadette Gunther '18
	Rumson-Fair Haven	Bulldogs	Colleen O'Brien '20 Michaela O'Brien '20 Shaanti Choi-Bose '19	Amelia Buch '20 Claire Haynes '19 Joey Cooner '19
	St. Mary's High School (MD)	Saints	Eddie Langemak '19 James Golden '20 Michael Bisson '18	Allison Forsyth '18 Amelia Johnson '21 Juliette Troxell '21
	Broadneck High School	Bruins	Emma Snead '19 Katherine Bennett '18 Sander Miller '18 Sean Jahnige '18	Nicole Ryan '18 Sean Jahnige '18 Lucien Parker '20 Maggie Mckay '18 Julia Tucker '18
	Annapolis High School	Panthers	Kimberly Leonard '18 Nicholas Salvesen '18 Thomas Johnson '19	Ava Walker '19 Shalom Fadullon '18 Isabella Fadullon '21
	Christian Brothers Academy	Colts	Jack Harrington '18 Michael Ehnot '18 Ryan Mullins '19	Justin Modin '19 John Cocozza '20 Joseph David '20
	Southwestern Central High School	Trojans	No Show	No Show '18