Southwestern Central High School '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.82 (fleet 1.34) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–18 (0%) as crew 0–27 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 0–18 | 0–27 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (45 matches) the record is 0–45 against 5.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.9). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-28 | MASSA Team Championship Baker Qualifier | skipper | 0.92 | -2.08 | 0–18 | 2.4 | ≤−3.00 | 3.4 | >99% |
| 2018-04-28 | MASSA Team Championship Baker Qualifier | crew | 0.92 | -2.08 | 0–27 | 3.5 | ≤−3.00 | 5.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2022 Team page Season | |||||
| NYISA-NW Fleet Qualifier | Crew | A, B | 20 | 6.3 | — |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| New York State Champs | Skipper | B | 4 | 2.5 | 0.84 |
| MASSA Team Championship Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 9 | 0% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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