| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 1 | 5–1 |
| 2 |  |
Roosevelt High School | Rough Riders | 5–2 |
| 3 |  |
Olympia High School | Bears | 4–2 |
| 4 |  |
Sehome High School | Mariners 1 | 4–3 |
| 5 |  |
Capital High School | Cougars | 3–3 |
| 5 |  |
Gig Harbor High School | Tides | 3–3 |
| 7 |  |
Ballard High School | Beavers | 3–4 |
| 8 |  |
Seattle Academy of Arts & Sciences | Cardinals | 2–5 |
| 9 |  |
Bellingham High School | Raiders 1 | 0–6 |
| 10 |  |
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | 5–1 |
| 11 |  |
Oak Harbor High School | Wildcats | 4–2 |
| 11 |  |
Nathan Hale High School | Raiders | 4–2 |
| 11 | |
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | 4–2 |
| 14 |  |
Port Townsend High School | Redhawks | 4–3 |
| 15 | |
Sehome High School | Mariners 2 | 3–4 |
| 16 | |
Bellingham High School | Raiders 2 | 3–4 |
| 17 |  |
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | 1–5 |
| 18 |  |
Anacortes High School | Seahawks | 1–6 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 6,914 team race matches sailed before 2019-10-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 3 of 5 matches (60%) with a log-loss of 0.513 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | 1.70 | 4.70 | 3–0 | 1.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.2 | 17% |
| 11 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 2.01 | 2.04 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 11 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 1.83 | -1.17 | 0–2 | 1.0 | ≤−3.00 | 1.7 | >99% |
| 17 | North Kitsap High School Dogfish | -0.39 | -3.39 | 0–2 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zane Walker | Bainbridge High School | 0.54 | 0.57 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 74% |
| Barrett Lhamon | Bainbridge High School | 1.02 | 1.04 | 2–1 | 2.0 | +0.02 | 0.0 | 74% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 53% | ||
| 17 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | 42% | upset | |
| 29 | Bainbridge High School Spartans 2 | North Kitsap High School Dogfish | 88% | ||
| 34 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | North Kitsap High School Dogfish | 82% | ||
| 50 | Garfield High School Bulldogs | Nathan Hale High School Raiders | 48% | upset |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Redhawks | 4-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Bears | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Tides | 2-3-6 |
| 4 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Raiders 1 | 3-5-6 |
| 5 | |
Raiders 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Beavers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 8 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 2-4-6 |
| 11 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Tides | 3-4-5 |
| 12 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 13 | |
Wildcats | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Raiders 2 | 1-4-6 |
| 14 | |
Mariners 2 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Redhawks | 2-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Beavers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-5-6 |
| 16 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Bulldogs | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 2-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Dogfish | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Seahawks | 2-3-6 |
| 19 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bears | 3-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Tides | 2-4-5 |
| 21 | |
Raiders | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 22 | |
Raiders 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Redhawks | 1-5-6 |
| 23 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cougars | 3-4-5 |
| 24 | |
Beavers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 26 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Tides | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Cardinals | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Spartans 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Spartans 2 | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-4-6 DNF |
| 30 | |
Redhawks | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wildcats | 2-4-6 |
| 31 | |
Bears | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Mariners 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Cardinals | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders 1 | 4-5-6 DNF,DNF |
| 33 | |
Raiders | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders 2 | 4-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 35 | |
Cougars | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-5-6 |
| 36 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Mariners 1 | 2-4-5 |
| 37 | |
Seahawks | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Mariners 2 | 2-3-6 |
| 38 | |
Spartans 2 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Raiders 2 | 1-5-6 |
| 39 | |
Tides | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 3-4-5 |
| 40 | |
Bears | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 2-4-5 |
| 41 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Bulldogs | 3-5-6 DNF |
| 42 | |
Raiders | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Wildcats | 1-5-6 |
| 43 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Raiders 1 | 4-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Cougars | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Cardinals | 1-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Mariners 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Dogfish | 3-5-6 |
| 46 | |
Raiders 2 | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Seahawks | 3-5-6 |
| 47 | |
Mariners 1 | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Rough Riders | 1-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Tides | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-5 |
| 49 | |
Wildcats | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Spartans 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 50 | |
Bulldogs | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Raiders | 3-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Cardinals | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Bears | 1-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Spartans 1 | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Cougars | 2-3-6 |
| 53 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Dogfish | 4-5-6 |
| 54 | |
Mariners 2 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders 2 | 3-4-5 |
| 55 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Raiders 1 | 3-4-5 |
| 56 | |
Rough Riders | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Beavers | 3-4-5 |
| 57 | |
Redhawks | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Seahawks | 4-5-6 |
| 58 | |
Mariners 1 | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Cardinals | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Garfield High School | Bulldogs | Colin Olson '22 Ellie Blakemore '23 Soren Althoff '22 |
Seth Plattner '23 Maia Dock '24 Evan Piccola '22 |
|
Nathan Hale High School | Raiders | Jessica Reeves '20 No Show Zoe Plattner '20 |
Everett Rendon '21 Sam Whitener '22 Ray Mcdavid '22 |
|
Bainbridge High School | Spartans 2 | Barrett Lhamon '22 Gianna Dewey '23 Lauren Heinzelman '22 Zane Walker '22 |
Cece Marshall '22 Dylan Hansen '23 Carter Anderson '23 Jeffrey Kriegh '23 Isaac Lolley '23 Noah Fernandes '23 |
|
North Kitsap High School | Dogfish | Adam Turloff '24 Alex Turloff '24 Jenna Hiegel '21 Pearl Young '22 |
Olivia Nodolf '22 Pearl Young '22 Landon Pol '24 Adam Turloff '24 Alex Turloff '24 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
