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New York State Champs

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 21 14 35
2 Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 23 22 45
3 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 24 28 52
4 Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 22 34 56
5 Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 34 32 66
6 Harley Allendale Columbia Harley Allendale Columbia Wolves 25 44 69
7 St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 34 37 71
8 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 57 14 71
9 Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 49 25 74
10 Pirates 2 Pirates 2 Pirates 2 12 75 87
11 Pirates 3 Pirates 3 Pirates 3 47 43 90
12 Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 52 54 106
13 Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 67 52 119
14 Pirates 1 Pirates 1 Pirates 1 62 58 120
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Pirates 2 Pirates 2 Pirates 2 1 4 2 1 4 12
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 6 2 3 3 7 21 William Turner '20
Madi Overbeck '21
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 5 3 5 4 5 22 Grace Cannon '19
Julia Beck '20
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 4 1 8 9 1 23 Olivia Callon '20
Sierra Bornheim '20
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 7 5 1 5 6 24 Sarah Chew '18
Bridget Taylor '20
Harley Allendale Columbia Harley Allendale Columbia Wolves 2 7 7 7 2 25 Erin Szuromi '21
Emmy Kaza '21
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 3 10 10 2 9 34 Gunnar Grenauer '18
Mark Hofmeister '20
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders DNF 6 4 6 3 34 Max Balanevsky '18
Justin Slate '18
Pirates 3 Pirates 3 Pirates 3 8 11 12 8 8 47
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 11 12 6 10 10 49 Aj Smith '18
Brooks Turcotte '23
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 9 9 9 14 11 52 Megan Thurley '21
Diana Spencer '18
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 10 13 11 11 12 57 Gregory Paiement '19
Grace Hoffman '19
Pirates 1 Pirates 1 Pirates 1 DNS 8 13 12 14 62
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 12 DNF 14 13 13 67 Emily Richardson '21
Ella Weber '22
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 TOT Sailors
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 1 1 7 1 1 4 14 Heidi Swan-Leuze '24
Siri Dubois '25
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 1 2 6 2 2 2 14 Sydney Buckman '18
Aaron Barsham '18
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Knights 8 2 6 3 3 22 Lena Fine '21
Pierson Deloe '20
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Trojans 2 4 1 DSQ 4 1 25 No Show '18
Autumn Bertgess '18
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 1 5 8 5 5 5 28 Emily Davis '18
Grace Colpoys '20
Canisius High School Canisius High School Crusaders 3 9 4 9 7 32 Sam Balanevsky '22 [1-5]
Braden Rottner '20 [1-3]
Gavin Sheehan '20 [4-5]
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks 9 4 7 6 8 34 Madeline Love '19
Sydeny Adams '18
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders 6 3 10 8 10 37 Garrett Grenauer '20
Braeden Bommarahau '21
Pirates 3 Pirates 3 Pirates 3 11 11 3 12 6 43
Harley Allendale Columbia Harley Allendale Columbia Wolves 12 5 9 7 11 44 Elliot Tyndall '19 [1-3]
Aiden Leit '20 [4-5]
James Stabler '20 [1-3]
Mercy High School Mercy High School Monarchs 2 7 10 11 11 13 52 Clementine Matzky '21
Maya Dini '18
Fairport High School Fairport High School Red Raiders 2 10 13 12 10 9 54 Benjamin Hosford '21 [1-3]
Cameron Bernabei '21 [4-5]
Cameron Bernabei '21 [1-3]
Benjamin Hosford '21 [4-5]
Pirates 1 Pirates 1 Pirates 1 13 12 8 13 12 58
Pirates 2 Pirates 2 Pirates 2 DNF DNF DNF DNF DNF 75
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (5 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks11335
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders22446
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 133557
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 244668
Harley Allendale ColumbiaHarley Allendale Columbia Wolves55779
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 1668810
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 2779911
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights88101012
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 199111113
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 21010121214
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders111113131
Pirates 1Pirates 1 Pirates 1121214142
Pirates 2Pirates 2 Pirates 21313113
Pirates 3Pirates 3 Pirates 31414224

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B
Buffalo SeminaryBuffalo Seminary Red-Tailed Hawks22446
Canisius High SchoolCanisius High School Crusaders33557
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 144668
Fairport High SchoolFairport High School Red Raiders 255779
Harley Allendale ColumbiaHarley Allendale Columbia Wolves668810
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 1779911
Mercy High SchoolMercy High School Monarchs 288101012
Pittsford High SchoolPittsford High School Knights99111113
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 11010121214
Southwestern Central High SchoolSouthwestern Central High School Trojans 2111113131
St. Joseph's Collegiate InstituteSt. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Marauders121214142
Pirates 1Pirates 1 Pirates 11313113
Pirates 2Pirates 2 Pirates 21414224
Pirates 3Pirates 3 Pirates 311335
School / Team SkipperCrew
Buffalo Seminary Buffalo Seminary Grace Cannon '19 Julia Beck '20
Red-Tailed Hawks Madeline Love '19 Sydeny Adams '18
Canisius High School Canisius High School Max Balanevsky '18 Justin Slate '18
Crusaders Sam Balanevsky '22 [1-5] Braden Rottner '20 [1-3]
Gavin Sheehan '20 [4-5]
Fairport High School Fairport High School Gregory Paiement '19 Grace Hoffman '19
Red Raiders 1 Sydney Buckman '18 Aaron Barsham '18
Fairport High School Fairport High School Megan Thurley '21 Diana Spencer '18
Red Raiders 2 Benjamin Hosford '21 [1-3]
Cameron Bernabei '21 [4-5]		 Cameron Bernabei '21 [1-3]
Benjamin Hosford '21 [4-5]
Harley Allendale Columbia Harley Allendale Columbia Erin Szuromi '21 Emmy Kaza '21
Wolves Elliot Tyndall '19 [1-3]
Aiden Leit '20 [4-5]		 James Stabler '20 [1-3]
Mercy High School Mercy High School Sarah Chew '18 Bridget Taylor '20
Monarchs 1 Emily Davis '18 Grace Colpoys '20
Mercy High School Mercy High School Emily Richardson '21 Ella Weber '22
Monarchs 2 Clementine Matzky '21 Maya Dini '18
Pittsford High School Pittsford High School Olivia Callon '20 Sierra Bornheim '20
Knights Lena Fine '21 Pierson Deloe '20
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School William Turner '20 Madi Overbeck '21
Trojans 1 Heidi Swan-Leuze '24 Siri Dubois '25
Southwestern Central High School Southwestern Central High School Aj Smith '18 Brooks Turcotte '23
Trojans 2 No Show '18 Autumn Bertgess '18
St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute St. Joseph's Collegiate Institute Gunnar Grenauer '18 Mark Hofmeister '20
Marauders Garrett Grenauer '20 Braeden Bommarahau '21

Conditions — 05/12/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 71%  ·  Pressure 1018.3 hPa

Temperature

55°F
↑ 60°F   ↓ 46°F
Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.4 kn
avg  ·  max 9.3 kn
Gusts to 20.2 kn
From NNE (34°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover85% Sunshine6.0 hrs Humidity71% Pressure1018.3 hPa Rain0.04 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: NE 9 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Buffalo Seminary: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.10)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.12 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.01
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.03 ± 0.18)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Buffalo Seminary by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Buffalo Seminary, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →