| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 4–0 |
| 2 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | 2–2 |
| 3 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Varsity | 2–2 |
| 4 |  |
Hinsdale Central High School | Varsity | 1–3 |
| 5 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 1–3 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 2,515 team race matches sailed before 2016-09-09, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 7 of 10 matches (70%) with a log-loss of 0.558 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness +0.40 ± 0.95: a typical event, more orderly than 69% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
| Place | School | Pred. | Strength | Boats (skipper / crew, boat value) | Pred. win % | Record | vs forecast |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack | 1 | 4.73 school −0.26 | Logan O'Connor / Cristina Dombrowski 1.89 Bridget Groble / Nate Casale 1.39 Ray Groble / Aisling Sullivan 1.68 | 74% | 4–0 (100%) | +1.0 |
| 2 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity | 4 | 3.07 school +0.13 | Peter Odom / Caroline Fairbanks 1.38 Owen Patterson / Hanna Mularczyk Alessandra Torres / Becca Rose | 37% | 2–2 (50%) | +0.5 |
| 3 | Latin School of Chicago Varsity | 3 | 3.73 school +0.07 | Marleigh Belsley / Anna Sanders 1.61 Nikolas Chambers / James Nappo 0.94 No Show / Henry Markarian 1.04 | 53% | 2–2 (50%) | −0.1 |
| 4 | Hinsdale Central High School Varsity | 5 | 2.79 school −0.45 | Sherman Thompson / Bryan Phlamm 1.18 David Phlamm / Evan Fallon 1.28 Mitchell Thompson / Saunders Thompson 0.71 | 33% | 1–3 (25%) | −0.3 |
| 5 | New Trier HS Trevian | 2 | 3.77 school −0.38 | W. Quinn Keenan / Matthew Trunsky 0.71 Spencer Keenan / Ben Spring 1.90 Dylan Cotter / Noah Barton 1.50 | 54% | 1–3 (25%) | −1.1 |
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 4.73 | 7.73 | 4–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 29% |
| 2 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 3.07 | 3.80 | 2–2 | 1.5 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 47% |
| 3 | Latin School of Chicago | 3.73 | 3.56 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 4 | Hinsdale Central High School | 2.79 | 2.29 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.51 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 5 | New Trier HS | 3.77 | 2.07 | 1–3 | 2.1 | −1.70 | 1.0 | 96% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Logan O'Connor | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.89 | 4.89 | 4–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 29% |
| Ray Groble | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.68 | 4.68 | 4–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 29% |
| Peter Odom | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.38 | 2.10 | 2–2 | 1.5 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Owen Patterson | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.42 | 2.15 | 2–2 | 1.5 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 47% |
| Alessandra Torres | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 0.07 | 0.80 | 2–2 | 1.5 | +0.73 | 0.2 | 47% |
| No Show | Latin School of Chicago | 1.04 | 0.86 | 2–2 | 2.1 | −0.17 | 0.0 | 74% |
| David Phlamm | Hinsdale Central High School | 1.28 | 0.77 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.51 | 0.1 | 80% |
| Mitchell Thompson | Hinsdale Central High School | 0.71 | 0.20 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.51 | 0.1 | 80% |
| W. Quinn Keenan | New Trier HS | 0.71 | -0.99 | 1–3 | 2.1 | −1.70 | 1.0 | 96% |
| Spencer Keenan | New Trier HS | 1.90 | 0.20 | 1–3 | 2.1 | −1.70 | 1.0 | 96% |
| Dylan Cotter | New Trier HS | 1.50 | -0.21 | 1–3 | 2.1 | −1.70 | 1.0 | 96% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| Rd | # | Winner | Loser | P(winner) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | Latin School of Chicago | Hinsdale Central High School | 67% | |
| 1 | 2 | Hinsdale Central High School | New Trier HS | 32% | upset |
| 1 | 3 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Hinsdale Central High School | 81% | |
| 1 | 4 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Hinsdale Central High School | 53% | |
| 1 | 5 | Latin School of Chicago | New Trier HS | 49% | upset |
| 1 | 6 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Latin School of Chicago | 68% | |
| 1 | 7 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Latin School of Chicago | 36% | upset |
| 1 | 8 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | New Trier HS | 68% | |
| 1 | 9 | New Trier HS | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 64% | |
| 1 | 10 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 78% |
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-4-6 |
| 3 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 5 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-5-6 |
| 6 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 7 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 8 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-5-6 |
| 9 | |
Trevian | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| School | Team | Skippers | Crew | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | Bridget Groble '17 Logan O'Connor '17 Ray Groble '17 |
Nate Casale '17 Cristina Dombrowski '19 Aisling Sullivan '18 |
|
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | Alessandra Torres '20 Owen Patterson '19 Peter Odom '17 |
Becca Rose '17 Hanna Mularczyk '17 Caroline Fairbanks '17 |
|
Latin School of Chicago | Varsity | Marleigh Belsley '19 Nikolas Chambers '19 No Show |
Anna Sanders '20 James Nappo '20 Henry Markarian '19 |
|
Hinsdale Central High School | Varsity | David Phlamm '18 Mitchell Thompson '19 Sherman Thompson '18 |
Evan Fallon '18 Saunders Thompson '21 Bryan Phlamm '21 |
|
New Trier HS | Trevian | Dylan Cotter '18 Spencer Keenan '17 W. Quinn Keenan '19 |
Noah Barton '19 Ben Spring '18 Matthew Trunsky '17 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
