St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL '18
How much better or worse boats do with this sailor crewing than their skipper's rating predicts, shown on the skipper scale so crews can be lined up across teams. Percentiles compare against rostered crews that season (league) or teammates (team).
How crew ratings work →Crew effect over their whole career, not scaled to a team: 68.42 percentile among ICSA crews with 30+ races. Uncertainty ±0.069 rating points from 444 races with rated skippers.
How crew ratings work →Includes linked high school and college seasons.
| Season | Team | Rating | Range | League percentile |
Team percentile |
On team | Races | Team page |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2023 | Dartmouth College | 2.92 | 76.23 | 50.00 | 5 of 9 | 33 | Team page | |
| Fall 2022 | Dartmouth College | 3.20 | 82.97 | 67.86 | 5 of 14 | 79 | Team page |
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.52 (fleet 2.45) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–9 (53%) as crew 56–46 (55%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 7–8 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 3 | — | 24–8 |
| Fall 2016 | 4 | 3–1 | 10–2 |
| Spring 2016 | 3 | — | 16–19 |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | — | 6–17 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 12 graded regattas (111 matches) the record is 63–48 against 61.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.6). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 2.04 | 2.08 | 7–8 | 6.9 | +0.04 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2017-05-27 | ISSA Team Race Championship (Baker Trophy) | crew | 2.18 | 1.87 | 1–4 | 1.2 | −0.31 | 0.0 | 77% |
| 2017-05-06 | MISSA Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.04 | 4.40 | 10–1 | 7.2 | +2.36 | 3.1 | 5% |
| 2017-04-22 | MISSA Central Baker Qualifier | crew | 2.00 | 2.33 | 13–3 | 12.5 | +0.34 | 0.1 | 51% |
| 2016-10-28 | MISSA Team Racing Central Series #5 | skipper | 1.84 | 1.60 | 3–1 | 3.1 | −0.25 | 0.0 | 80% |
| 2016-09-23 | MISSA Team Race Central Series #3 | crew | 1.53 | 1.52 | 3–1 | 3.0 | −0.01 | 0.0 | 74% |
| 2016-09-09 | MISSA Central Team Race #2 | crew | 1.68 | 4.68 | 4–0 | 2.9 | ≥+3.00 | 1.6 | 29% |
| 2016-09-02 | MISSA Central Team Race Series #1 | crew | 1.68 | 2.82 | 3–1 | 2.3 | +1.14 | 0.4 | 42% |
| 2016-05-28 | National Invitational Tournament | crew | 1.72 | 0.47 | 3–11 | 5.5 | −1.25 | 1.7 | 97% |
| 2016-05-07 | Baker Midwest Qualifier | crew | 1.92 | 1.91 | 4–3 | 4.0 | −0.00 | 0.0 | 66% |
| 2016-04-23 | High School Invite | crew | 1.99 | 2.30 | 9–5 | 8.4 | +0.31 | 0.1 | 48% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | crew | 1.57 | 0.66 | 3–10 | 4.4 | −0.91 | 0.7 | 91% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Aisling Sullivan |  Dartmouth College |
'22 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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