Fall Scramble

HostArrowhead/Kettle Moraine/Oconomowoc
Date09/16/2017
TypeDistrict Champ Qualifier
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Arrowhead High School	Warhawks 1	58	36	94
2	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	76	61	137
3	Big Foot High School	Varsity	108	65	173
4	Kettle Moraine High School	VARSITY	81	104	185
5	Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	136	51	187
6	Orono High School	Scarlet	120	75	195
7	Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons 1	102	94	196
8	New Trier HS	Trevian	98	98	196
9	Wayzata High School	Navy	101	97	198
10	Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	102	110	212
11	Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	140	81	221
12	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	84	161	245
13	Southwest High School	Varsity	147	105	252
14	Arrowhead High School	Warhawks 2	126	136	262
15	Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons 2	191	108	299
16	Edina High School	Varsity	146	163	309
17	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	138	183	321
18	Mounds Park Academy	Panthers	90	235	325
19	Fenwick High School	Friars	135	196	331
20	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	188	154	342
21	Gibraltar High School	Vikings	131	227	358
22	Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	164	196	360
23	Sheboygan North High School (WI)	Raiders	193	189	382
24	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	217	166	383
25	Beacon Academy	Varsity	235	188	423
26	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	221	232	453

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks 1	3	3	4	4	2	14	14	3	1	10	58	Jonothan Bailey '19 Erin Schaubel '18
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	10	1	19	2	7	4	3	6	9	15	76	Graham Ness '19 Annika Irene '19
Kettle Moraine High School	VARSITY	4	6	14	8	4	13	16	4	6	6	81	Christian Spencer '18 Sam Spencer '20
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	14	5	12	11	6	2	6	5	15	8	84	Aisling Sullivan '18 Cristina Dombrowski '19
Mounds Park Academy	Panthers	2	8	8	1	DSQ	6	15	7	13	3	90	Toby Sullivan '19 Jose Varela '19
New Trier HS	Trevian	OCS	2	6	20	3	1	7	14	14	4	98	Lolly Vasilion '18 Izzy Cox '19
Wayzata High School	Navy	6	9	9	10	5	5	11	15	22	9	101	Emma Aubuchon '19 Ellen Tovb '19
Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	5	7	5	19	1	15	13	18	8	11	102	Sherman Thompson '18 Evan Fallon '18
Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons 1	12	17	3	13	9	18	8	8	7	7	102	Will Grosspietsch '18 Ryan Odeja '19
Big Foot High School	Varsity	OCS	21	13	7	8	12	1	2	5	12	108	Harry Melges Iv '19 [1-10] Finn Rowe '19 [1-4] Tom Ahrens '20 [5-6] Kyle Navin '20 [7-10]
Orono High School	Scarlet	OCS	10	20	14	16	OCS	2	1	2	1	120	Samuel Bartel '18 [1-10] Archie Bolgar '19 [1-6] Seamus Hendrickson '21 [7-10]
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks 2	11	13	1	16	15	OCS	4	17	4	18	126	Jack Schweda '20 Lily Stemper '20
Gibraltar High School	Vikings	16	19	2	6	18	3	19	12	20	16	131	Eric Hoyerman '19 Kaylee Weddig '18
Fenwick High School	Friars	OCS	14	22	3	12	9	5	13	10	20	135	Harry Bearrows '18 [1-10] Maura Hopkinson '20 [1-2, 5-10] Julia Overmyer '23 [3-4]
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	13	12	24	5	19	16	20	11	11	5	136	Nikolas Chambers '19 [1-10] Julia Fairbank '19 [1-4] James Nappo '20 [5-10]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	8	OCS	21	9	17	11	17	23	3	2	138	Owen Patterson '19 Asha Baddi '20
Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	19	20	7	12	11	17	9	9	17	19	140	Genna Viggiano '18 [1-10] Lauren Geib '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cole Barre '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Edina High School	Varsity	9	11	15	21	21	7	12	21	12	17	146	George Moore '20 [1-10] Reilly Hannula '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Xochitl Galvanpizana '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Southwest High School	Varsity	18	4	11	22	13	8	18	16	23	14	147	Tighe Case '18 [1-10] Remi Clark '20 [1-6, 9-10] Natasha Levy '20 [7-8]
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	7	22	18	15	10	21	23	19	16	13	164	Luke Hosek '20 Bradley Hill '20
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	15	18	17	18	24	10	22	22	21	21	188	Sam Morin '18 [1-10] Alec Wyers '20 [1-4, 9-10] John Drewno '21 [5-8]
Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons 2	22	16	16	17	23	22	21	10	18	26	191	Graves Anna '18 Jacob Spear '22
Sheboygan North High School (WI)	Raiders	1	23	25	26	22	20	10	25	19	22	193	Patrick Fisher '20 [1-10] Hannah Post '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ryan Yedica '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	21	15	10	25	25	24	24	24	24	25	217	Hugh Rider '18 Joseph Shilati '18
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	17	24	23	24	14	19	25	26	25	24	221	Ryan Henderson '19 Oscar Underburg '20
Beacon Academy	Varsity	20	OCS	26	23	20	23	26	20	DNF	23	235	Tasker Peacock '20 Noah Lichstein '20

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	TOT	Sailors
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks 1	4	4	4	2	2	1	2	1	10	6	36	Jp Friend '18 Maggie Siepmann '20
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	7	3	1	3	6	10	3	7	1	10	51	Will Davies '18 Cj Ricci '20
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	2	1	11	5	1	13	6	5	13	4	61	Nate Olmsted '19 [1-10] Rowan O'Connell '20 [1-5, 7-8] Lexie Baker '19 [6, 9-10]
Big Foot High School	Varsity	6	15	19	4	3	3	7	3	4	1	65	Kyle Navin '20 [1-6] Finn Rowe '19 [7-10] Christian Karabas '19 [1-2, 7-10] Bo Freytag '18 [3-4] Alex Laing '18 [5-6]
Orono High School	Scarlet	1	5	10	9	4	15	10	17	2	2	75	Rachel Bartel '20 [1-10] Chase Blum '18 [1-2, 5-8] Seamus Hendrickson '21 [3-4] Archie Bolgar '19 [9-10]
Mahtomedi	Zephyrs	3	2	6	7	5	9	17	13	3	16	81	Clara Brown '18 [1-10] Kristen Geib '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Anika Liner '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons 1	10	8	12	11	10	4	1	6	5	DSQ	94	Quinn Harris '22 Lexi Garczynski '19
Wayzata High School	Navy	5	19	20	1	12	6	5	4	12	13	97	Wiley Hunt '19 Maria Pumper '19
New Trier HS	Trevian	13	18	7	10	7	11	8	2	11	11	98	Dylan Hardt '20 [1-4] Dylan Cotter '18 [5-10] Nathan Whisner '19 [1-4]
Kettle Moraine High School	VARSITY	17	6	3	13	13	2	12	10	25	3	104	Red Tornehl '20 Maddie Crucius '20
Southwest High School	Varsity	9	17	5	6	9	5	9	8	19	18	105	Nicole Giuliani '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Calvin Lamosse '21 [3-4, 7-8] Gints Pelecis '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
Oconomowoc High School	Raccoons 2	12	7	15	8	11	16	13	9	9	8	108	John Dvorak '19 Claire Phelps '19
Hinsdale Central High School	Varsity	8	14	8	15	20	18	4	11	7	5	110	David Phlamm '18 Berenger Jeannides '18
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks 2	22	16	17	25	8	7	16	12	6	7	136	Luca Marban '21 [1-10] Max Krotts '22 [1-4] Eli Koper '22 [5-10]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	14	23	16	20	19	8	11	14	17	12	154	Matteo Torquati '20 [1-10] Jason Tothy '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Otto Brown '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	18	11	14	22	17	14	15	15	18	17	161	Caroline Sandoval '19 Nicholas Alfano '18
Edina High School	Varsity	20	24	13	17	25	12	14	16	8	14	163	Kate Higgins '18 Marit Lebakken '20
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	23	21	2	12	14	19	25	18	23	9	166	Bridget Falkenhayn '19 Angelina Simon '20
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Varsity	15	22	9	21	18	21	18	25	14	20	183	Liliana Taub '19 [1-2] Alessandra Torres '20 [3-10] Tj Boland '19 [1-2] Aviva Kaplan '20 [3-10]
Beacon Academy	Varsity	21	12	18	14	16	17	21	24	24	21	188	Grayson Hunter '19 Daren Nerad '20
Sheboygan North High School (WI)	Raiders	11	10	22	18	24	25	20	21	15	23	189	Ashley English '20 Sam Delasanta '20
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	16	9	25	26	15	24	24	22	16	19	196	William Frendreiss '20 [1-10] Jake Nolan '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Matheui Halpin '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Fenwick High School	Friars	19	13	21	19	23	22	19	19	26	15	196	John Hultquist '20 [1-10] Allison Lang '18 [1-2, 5-10] Aidan Soule '25 [3-4]
Gibraltar High School	Vikings	26	25	24	16	22	20	23	26	21	24	227	Kelsey Weddig '18 [1-6] Jack Rebhan '20 [7-10] Jack Rebhan '20 [1-6] Kelsey Weddig '18 [7-10]
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	25	20	23	24	26	26	26	20	20	22	232	Ulysses Hennelly '20 Maxime Visa '19
Mounds Park Academy	Panthers	24	26	26	23	21	23	22	23	22	25	235	Karan Jain '19 [1-10] Stephen Olk '21 [1-4, 9-10] Emmett Tanzer '21 [5-8]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.300+0.30

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2017 (2 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A
Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Beacon Academy Varsity	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Big Foot High School Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons					2	2	4	4	6	6
Edina High School Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Fenwick High School Friars	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Gibraltar High School Vikings	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Hinsdale Central High School Varsity	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Latin School of Chicago Varsity	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Loyola Academy Ramblers	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	21	21
Mahtomedi Zephyrs	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Minnetonka High School Skippers	15	15	17	17	19	19	21	21
Mounds Park Academy Panthers	16	16	18	18	20	20
New Trier HS Trevian	17	17	19	19	21	21
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	18	18	20	20
Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 1	19	19	21	21					1	1
Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 2	20	20							2	2
Orono High School Scarlet	21	21					1	1	3	3
Southwest High School Varsity							2	2	4	4
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack					1	1	3	3	5	5
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity			1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Wayzata High School Navy			2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B
Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Beacon Academy Varsity	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Big Foot High School Varsity	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons			1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Edina High School Varsity	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15
Fenwick High School Friars	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16
Gibraltar High School Vikings	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17
Hinsdale Central High School Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18
Kettle Moraine High School VARSITY	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19
Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Latin School of Chicago Varsity	13	13	15	15	17	17	19	19	21	21
Loyola Academy Ramblers	14	14	16	16	18	18	20	20
Mahtomedi Zephyrs	15	15	17	17	19	19	21	21
Minnetonka High School Skippers	16	16	18	18	20	20
Mounds Park Academy Panthers	17	17	19	19	21	21
New Trier HS Trevian	18	18	20	20
Sheboygan North High School (WI) Raiders	19	19	21	21					1	1
Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 1	20	20							2	2
Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 2	21	21					1	1	3	3
Orono High School Scarlet							2	2	4	4
Southwest High School Varsity					1	1	3	3	5	5
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack					2	2	4	4	6	6
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity			2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Wayzata High School Navy	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Arrowhead High School	Jonothan Bailey '19	Erin Schaubel '18
Warhawks 1	Jp Friend '18	Maggie Siepmann '20
Arrowhead High School	Jack Schweda '20	Lily Stemper '20
Warhawks 2	Luca Marban '21 [1-10]	Max Krotts '22 [1-4] Eli Koper '22 [5-10]
Beacon Academy	Tasker Peacock '20	Noah Lichstein '20
Varsity	Grayson Hunter '19	Daren Nerad '20
Big Foot High School	Harry Melges Iv '19 [1-10]	Finn Rowe '19 [1-4] Tom Ahrens '20 [5-6] Kyle Navin '20 [7-10]
Varsity	Kyle Navin '20 [1-6] Finn Rowe '19 [7-10]	Christian Karabas '19 [1-2, 7-10] Bo Freytag '18 [3-4] Alex Laing '18 [5-6]
Edina High School	George Moore '20 [1-10]	Reilly Hannula '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Xochitl Galvanpizana '18 [3-4, 7-8]
Varsity	Kate Higgins '18	Marit Lebakken '20
Evanston Township HS	Ryan Henderson '19	Oscar Underburg '20
Wildkits	Ulysses Hennelly '20	Maxime Visa '19
Fenwick High School	Harry Bearrows '18 [1-10]	Maura Hopkinson '20 [1-2, 5-10] Julia Overmyer '23 [3-4]
Friars	John Hultquist '20 [1-10]	Allison Lang '18 [1-2, 5-10] Aidan Soule '25 [3-4]
Gibraltar High School	Eric Hoyerman '19	Kaylee Weddig '18
Vikings	Kelsey Weddig '18 [1-6] Jack Rebhan '20 [7-10]	Jack Rebhan '20 [1-6] Kelsey Weddig '18 [7-10]
Hinsdale Central High School	Sherman Thompson '18	Evan Fallon '18
Varsity	David Phlamm '18	Berenger Jeannides '18
Kettle Moraine High School	Christian Spencer '18	Sam Spencer '20
VARSITY	Red Tornehl '20	Maddie Crucius '20
Lane Tech College Prep	Luke Hosek '20	Bradley Hill '20
Varsity	William Frendreiss '20 [1-10]	Jake Nolan '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Matheui Halpin '19 [3-4, 7-8]
Latin School of Chicago	Nikolas Chambers '19 [1-10]	Julia Fairbank '19 [1-4] James Nappo '20 [5-10]
Varsity	Will Davies '18	Cj Ricci '20
Loyola Academy	Hugh Rider '18	Joseph Shilati '18
Ramblers	Bridget Falkenhayn '19	Angelina Simon '20
Mahtomedi	Genna Viggiano '18 [1-10]	Lauren Geib '18 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Cole Barre '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Zephyrs	Clara Brown '18 [1-10]	Kristen Geib '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Anika Liner '21 [3-4, 7-8]
Minnetonka High School	Graham Ness '19	Annika Irene '19
Skippers	Nate Olmsted '19 [1-10]	Rowan O'Connell '20 [1-5, 7-8] Lexie Baker '19 [6, 9-10]
Mounds Park Academy	Toby Sullivan '19	Jose Varela '19
Panthers	Karan Jain '19 [1-10]	Stephen Olk '21 [1-4, 9-10] Emmett Tanzer '21 [5-8]
New Trier HS	Lolly Vasilion '18	Izzy Cox '19
Trevian	Dylan Hardt '20 [1-4] Dylan Cotter '18 [5-10]	Nathan Whisner '19 [1-4]
Oconomowoc High School	Will Grosspietsch '18	Ryan Odeja '19
Raccoons 1	Quinn Harris '22	Lexi Garczynski '19
Oconomowoc High School	Graves Anna '18	Jacob Spear '22
Raccoons 2	John Dvorak '19	Claire Phelps '19
Orono High School	Samuel Bartel '18 [1-10]	Archie Bolgar '19 [1-6] Seamus Hendrickson '21 [7-10]
Scarlet	Rachel Bartel '20 [1-10]	Chase Blum '18 [1-2, 5-8] Seamus Hendrickson '21 [3-4] Archie Bolgar '19 [9-10]
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Aisling Sullivan '18	Cristina Dombrowski '19
Wolfpack	Caroline Sandoval '19	Nicholas Alfano '18
Sheboygan North High School (WI)	Patrick Fisher '20 [1-10]	Hannah Post '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Ryan Yedica '22 [3-4, 7-8]
Raiders	Ashley English '20	Sam Delasanta '20
Southwest High School	Tighe Case '18 [1-10]	Remi Clark '20 [1-6, 9-10] Natasha Levy '20 [7-8]
Varsity	Nicole Giuliani '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Calvin Lamosse '21 [3-4, 7-8]	Gints Pelecis '21 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10]
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Sam Morin '18 [1-10]	Alec Wyers '20 [1-4, 9-10] John Drewno '21 [5-8]
Maroons	Matteo Torquati '20 [1-10]	Jason Tothy '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9-10] Otto Brown '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Owen Patterson '19	Asha Baddi '20
Varsity	Liliana Taub '19 [1-2] Alessandra Torres '20 [3-10]	Tj Boland '19 [1-2] Aviva Kaplan '20 [3-10]
Wayzata High School	Emma Aubuchon '19	Ellen Tovb '19
Navy	Wiley Hunt '19	Maria Pumper '19

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Fall Scramble

Division A

Division B

From the notes