Lane Tech College Prep '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.80 (fleet 2.91) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–6 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 6–6 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (12 matches) the record is 6–6 against 5.4 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 0 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-04-21 | MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.92 | 1.20 | 4–3 | 3.6 | +0.28 | 0.1 | 54% |
| 2018-04-15 | Central Team Race Scrimmage | skipper | 0.78 | 1.07 | 2–3 | 1.8 | +0.29 | 0.0 | 59% |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Luke Hosek |  Roger Williams University |
'24 |
| ISSA | Luke Hosek |  University of Chicago Laboratory Schools |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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