2019 Autumn Classic

HostChicago Yacht Club Belmont
Date10/12/2019
TypeLeague Championship
Boat420E
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	23	9	32
2	New Trier HS	Trevian	19	22	41
3	Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	52	25	77
4	Latin School of Chicago	Romans	44	44	88
5	Culver Academies	Eagles	46	47	93
6	Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	32	63	95
7	University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	50	49	99
8	Loyola Academy	Ramblers	62	43	105
9	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	61	51	112
10	Fenwick High School	Friars	50	66	116
11	Jones College Prep	Eagles	51	82	133
12	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	88	52	140
13	Lyons Township High School	Lions	57	86	143

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
New Trier HS	Trevian	4	3	1	1	5	3	2	19	Garrett Cook '20 Anna Mcbride '20
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	5	5	3	4	2	1	3	23	Jack Baldwin '22 [1-7] Leo Daly '22 [1] Luke Goldman '21 [2-7]
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	1	4	7	2	9	5	4	32	Luke Hosek '20 Lauren Mellinger '21
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	3	2	BKD	7	1	DSQ	12	44	James Nappo '20 Cj Ricci '20
Culver Academies	Eagles	6	12	4	6	3	9	6	46	Beckett Kumler '20 Ethen Stone '21
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	9	8	6	9	6	7	5	50	Benny Wild '22 [1-7] Adler Wright '22 [1-2, 5-6] Benjamin Luu '23 [3-4, 7]
Fenwick High School	Friars	12	9	9	5	10	4	1	50	John Hultquist '20 [1-7] Julia Overmyer '23 [1-4] William Carl '23 [5-7]
Jones College Prep	Eagles	7	1	5	12	4	12	10	51	Emmett Nevel '21 Maddie Fitzgerald '22
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	DNF	6	8	3	11	2	7	52	Ulysses Hennelly '20 Mary Castellini '21
Lyons Township High School	Lions	2	11	2	11	13	10	8	57	Jack Bergman '20 Ali Jensen '22
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	8	10	10	8	8	6	11	61	Wyatt Harley '21 [1-6] Cecily Marden '21 [7] Aviva Kaplan '20 [1-6] Wyatt Harley '21 [7]
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	10	7	11	10	7	8	9	62	Santiago Echevarria '22 Angelina Simon '20
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	11	13	DNF	DNF	12	11	13	88	Henry Scholz '23 [1] Zach Biela '20 [2-7] Isaac Martinez '23 [1-3, 6-7] Jack Parsons '23 [4-5]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	TOT	Sailors
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Wolfpack	1	2	1	1	2	1	1	9	Peter Barnard '23 Daniel Sandoval '22
New Trier HS	Trevian	2	5	2	3	1	2	7	22	Ted Lutton '20 Alex Adams '20
Evanston Township HS	Wildkits	3	1	3	5	3	8	2	25	Charlie Herrick '22 Saskia Teterycz '21
Loyola Academy	Ramblers	7	4	6	2	9	6	9	43	Lexi Chigas '22 Grace Beard '21
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	6	10	8	8	4	5	3	44	Christian Prendergast '24 Emily Marlas '22
Culver Academies	Eagles	5	8	11	4	8	3	8	47	Caleb Barrett '20 Isabelle Kanach '21
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Maroons	12	7	4	6	6	4	10	49	Philip Lengyel '21 [1-7] Ava Wilson '20 [1-4] Bryan Pan '23 [5-7]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	9	3	7	9	10	9	4	51	Alessandra Torres '20 [1-6] Rem Johannknecht '22 [7] Rem Johannknecht '22 [1-6] Alessandra Torres '20 [7]
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	4	6	5	7	11	7	12	52	Leo Kumar '23 Michal Janowicz '21
Lane Tech College Prep	Varsity	8	9	9	DNF	5	12	6	63	Julian Bornstien '20 [1-7] Audra Spokas-Jaros '21 [1-2] Christopher Connally '20 [3-7]
Fenwick High School	Friars	10	11	10	12	7	11	5	66	Aidan Soule '25 Sam Kulisek '23
Jones College Prep	Eagles	11	DNS	13	10	13	10	11	82	Michael Stewart '21 [1-2] Molly Sheridan '21 [3-4] Jake Weinstein '23 [5-7] David Eskilson '22 [1-4] Molly Sheridan '21 [5-7]
Lyons Township High School	Lions	13	12	12	11	12	13	13	86	Gavin Dempsey '22 [1-4] Keg Avakian '22 [5-7] Keg Avakian '22 [1-2] Nick Lorenzen '23 [3-7]

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.050+0.05

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2019 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	9	9	20	20	6	6	16
Culver Academies Eagles	20	20	6	6	16	16	14
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	19	19	17	17	15	15	13
Fenwick High School Friars	6	6	16	16	14	14	12
Jones College Prep Eagles	17	17	15	15	13	13	11
Lake Forest High School Scouts	16	16	14	14	12	12	10
Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	15	15	13	13	11	11	9
Latin School of Chicago Romans	14	14	12	12	10	10	8
Loyola Academy Ramblers	13	13	11	11	9	9	20
Lyons Township High School Lions	12	12	10	10	8	8	19
New Trier HS Trevian	11	11	9	9	20	20	6
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	10	10	8	8	19	19	17
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	8	8	19	19	17	17	15

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools Maroons	8	8	19	19	17	17	15
Culver Academies Eagles	19	19	17	17	15	15	13
Evanston Township HS Wildkits	6	6	16	16	14	14	12
Fenwick High School Friars	17	17	15	15	13	13	11
Jones College Prep Eagles	16	16	14	14	12	12	10
Lake Forest High School Scouts	15	15	13	13	11	11	9
Lane Tech College Prep Varsity	14	14	12	12	10	10	8
Latin School of Chicago Romans	13	13	11	11	9	9	20
Loyola Academy Ramblers	12	12	10	10	8	8	19
Lyons Township High School Lions	11	11	9	9	20	20	6
New Trier HS Trevian	10	10	8	8	19	19	17
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Wolfpack	9	9	20	20	6	6	16
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	20	20	6	6	16	16	14

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Culver Academies	Beckett Kumler '20	Ethen Stone '21
Eagles	Caleb Barrett '20	Isabelle Kanach '21
Evanston Township HS	Ulysses Hennelly '20	Mary Castellini '21
Wildkits	Charlie Herrick '22	Saskia Teterycz '21
Fenwick High School	John Hultquist '20 [1-7]	Julia Overmyer '23 [1-4] William Carl '23 [5-7]
Friars	Aidan Soule '25	Sam Kulisek '23
Jones College Prep	Emmett Nevel '21	Maddie Fitzgerald '22
Eagles	Michael Stewart '21 [1-2] Molly Sheridan '21 [3-4] Jake Weinstein '23 [5-7]	David Eskilson '22 [1-4] Molly Sheridan '21 [5-7]
Lake Forest High School	Henry Scholz '23 [1] Zach Biela '20 [2-7]	Isaac Martinez '23 [1-3, 6-7] Jack Parsons '23 [4-5]
Scouts	Leo Kumar '23	Michal Janowicz '21
Lane Tech College Prep	Luke Hosek '20	Lauren Mellinger '21
Varsity	Julian Bornstien '20 [1-7]	Audra Spokas-Jaros '21 [1-2] Christopher Connally '20 [3-7]
Latin School of Chicago	James Nappo '20	Cj Ricci '20
Romans	Christian Prendergast '24	Emily Marlas '22
Loyola Academy	Santiago Echevarria '22	Angelina Simon '20
Ramblers	Lexi Chigas '22	Grace Beard '21
Lyons Township High School	Jack Bergman '20	Ali Jensen '22
Lions	Gavin Dempsey '22 [1-4] Keg Avakian '22 [5-7]	Keg Avakian '22 [1-2] Nick Lorenzen '23 [3-7]
New Trier HS	Garrett Cook '20	Anna Mcbride '20
Trevian	Ted Lutton '20	Alex Adams '20
Saint Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL	Jack Baldwin '22 [1-7]	Leo Daly '22 [1] Luke Goldman '21 [2-7]
Wolfpack	Peter Barnard '23	Daniel Sandoval '22
University of Chicago Laboratory Schools	Benny Wild '22 [1-7]	Adler Wright '22 [1-2, 5-6] Benjamin Luu '23 [3-4, 7]
Maroons	Philip Lengyel '21 [1-7]	Ava Wilson '20 [1-4] Bryan Pan '23 [5-7]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Wyatt Harley '21 [1-6] Cecily Marden '21 [7]	Aviva Kaplan '20 [1-6] Wyatt Harley '21 [7]
Grizzlies	Alessandra Torres '20 [1-6] Rem Johannknecht '22 [7]	Rem Johannknecht '22 [1-6] Alessandra Torres '20 [7]

Conditions — 10/12/2019 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 48% · Pressure 1014.6 hPa

Temperature

47°F

↑ 53°F ↓ 38°F

Feels like 35°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

17.8 kn

avg · max 20.3 kn

Gusts to 31.3 kn

From SW (220°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover9% Sunshine10.9 hrs Humidity48% Pressure1014.6 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 19 kn* · W 12 kn (*weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In this breeze at Chicago Yacht Club Belmont: a favourites’ day (+0.05)

Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.

Fleet adjustment +0.01 (an ordinary fleet) · combined forecast +0.07

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.19 ± 0.15)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.05 means a rating gap counts about 5% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Chicago Yacht Club Belmont by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Chicago Yacht Club Belmont, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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