Lake Forest High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.56 (fleet 0.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.02 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 27–24 (53%) as crew 0–1 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 4 | 27–23 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 0–1 | 0–1 |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (50 matches) the record is 27–23 against 22.9 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.1). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | 2018 NIT Team Racing Regatta | skipper | 0.70 | 1.68 | 12–12 | 8.1 | +0.98 | 2.2 | 6% |
| 2018-05-05 | MISSA Baker Qualifier Gold | skipper | 0.59 | 2.06 | 3–2 | 1.7 | +1.46 | 1.1 | 22% |
| 2018-04-21 | MISSA Central Baker Pre-Qualifier | skipper | 0.42 | -0.11 | 8–8 | 9.5 | −0.53 | 0.4 | 86% |
| 2018-04-15 | Central Team Race Scrimmage | skipper | 0.42 | 1.04 | 4–1 | 3.6 | +0.62 | 0.1 | 57% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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