2018 NIT Team Racing Regatta

HostMercy
Date05/26/2018
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	8–1
2	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	7–2
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	7–2
4	Boston College High School	Eagles	6–3
5	Falmouth High School, ME	Yachtsmen	5–4
6	Lake Forest High School	Scouts	4–5
7	Milton Academy	Mustangs	4–5
8	Broadneck High School	Bruins	2–7
9	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	2–7
10	Latin School of Chicago	Romans	0–9

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,246 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-26, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 59 of 105 matches (56%) with a log-loss of 0.771 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −1.48 ± 0.25: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 3% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	H. B. Plant High School Panthers	2	6.15 school −0.07	Connor Nelson / Tee Chulikavit 2.48 Brandon Geller / Dominic Canonico 2.11 Sean Toro / Spencer Brooks 1.57	70%	12–9 (57%)	−2.7
2	Greenwich High School Cardinals	6	5.38 school +0.51	Aiden Iacconis / Kate Russack Pierce Ornstein / Isabella Clemens 1.92 Max Anker / Angus Manion 1.92	53%	3–0 (100%)	+1.4
3	Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	1	6.64 school −0.17	Ellie Maus / Matt Wright 2.38 Parker Purrington / Sarah Smith 2.27 Chris Robertson / Sam Beck 2.15	80%	13–11 (54%)	−6.1
4	Boston College High School Eagles	4	5.27 school +0.28	Bedford Will / Dromey Patrick 1.42 Bell Jed / Buckeridge Tyler 1.75 Graziano Nick / Moreira Simon 1.62	55%	14–13 (52%)	−0.8
5	Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen	3	5.47 school −0.18	Caleb Robinson / Emma Cole 2.24 Peter Morrissette / Catherine Morrissette 2.09 Brendan Mittleider / Ava Brimicombe 1.14	60%	11–13 (46%)	−3.3
6	Lake Forest High School Scouts	8	4.10 school +0.45	Connor Sheridan / Su Yardimci 1.67 Zach Biela / Gabe Kobza 0.70 Nicholas Elsasser / Casey Murray 1.21	34%	12–12 (50%)	+3.9
7	Milton Academy Mustangs	5	5.12 school +0.39	Ben Monnich / Julia O'Connor Hunter Zonnenberg / Isabelle Alex Jamie Fox / Alexandra Barron 2.20	53%	11–13 (46%)	−1.8
8	Broadneck High School Bruins	10	3.60 school +0.53	Katherine Bennett / Julia Tucker 2.06 Sander Miller / Maggie Mckay 0.71 Sean Jahnige / Nicole Ryan 0.24	24%	9–12 (43%)	+4.0
9	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Grizzlies	9	3.94 school +0.20	Wyatt Harley / Francis Depke 0.97 Owen Patterson / Asha Baddi 1.96 Alessandra Torres / Tj Boland 0.65	33%	6–15 (29%)	−1.0
10	Latin School of Chicago Romans	7	4.42 school −0.23	Marleigh Belsley / Nicholas Peluchiwski 1.66 Will Davies / James Nappo 1.45 Nikolas Chambers / Cj Ricci 1.37	36%	14–7 (67%)	+6.4

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Greenwich High School	5.38	8.38	3–0	1.6	≥+3.00	2.4	15%
10	Latin School of Chicago	4.42	6.23	14–7	7.6	+1.81	6.5	<1%
8	Broadneck High School	3.60	4.83	9–12	5.0	+1.23	2.9	4%
6	Lake Forest High School	4.10	5.08	12–12	8.1	+0.98	2.2	6%
4	Boston College High School	5.27	5.08	14–13	14.8	−0.19	0.1	71%
9	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	3.94	3.63	6–15	7.0	−0.31	0.2	76%
7	Milton Academy	5.12	4.68	11–13	12.7	−0.43	0.4	84%
1	H. B. Plant High School	6.15	5.35	12–9	14.7	−0.80	1.2	94%
5	Falmouth High School, ME	5.47	4.64	11–13	14.3	−0.83	1.6	96%
3	Norfolk Collegiate School	6.64	4.99	13–11	19.1	−1.66	6.0	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Aiden Iacconis	Greenwich High School	1.00	4.00	3–0	1.6	≥+3.00	2.4	15%
Sander Miller	Broadneck High School	0.71	1.94	9–12	5.0	+1.23	2.9	4%
Zach Biela	Lake Forest High School	0.70	1.68	12–12	8.1	+0.98	2.2	6%
Bedford Will	Boston College High School	1.42	1.24	14–13	14.8	−0.19	0.1	71%
Bell Jed	Boston College High School	1.75	1.57	14–13	14.8	−0.19	0.1	71%
Graziano Nick	Boston College High School	1.62	1.44	14–13	14.8	−0.19	0.1	71%
Wyatt Harley	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	0.97	0.66	6–15	7.0	−0.31	0.2	76%
Owen Patterson	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	1.96	1.64	6–15	7.0	−0.31	0.2	76%
Alessandra Torres	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	0.65	0.34	6–15	7.0	−0.31	0.2	76%
Ben Monnich	Milton Academy	0.97	0.53	11–13	12.7	−0.43	0.4	84%
Hunter Zonnenberg	Milton Academy	1.36	0.93	11–13	12.7	−0.43	0.4	84%
Jamie Fox	Milton Academy	2.20	1.76	11–13	12.7	−0.43	0.4	84%
Sean Toro	H. B. Plant High School	1.57	0.77	12–9	14.7	−0.80	1.2	94%
Brendan Mittleider	Falmouth High School, ME	1.14	0.31	11–13	14.3	−0.83	1.6	96%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Norfolk Collegiate School	Lake Forest High School	88%
1	2	Falmouth High School, ME	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	76%
1	3	Greenwich High School	Boston College High School	55%
1	4	H. B. Plant High School	Broadneck High School	88%
1	5	Milton Academy	Latin School of Chicago	63%
1	6	Lake Forest High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	54%
1	8	Falmouth High School, ME	Broadneck High School	80%
1	9	Boston College High School	Milton Academy	53%
1	10	H. B. Plant High School	Latin School of Chicago	80%
1	12	Lake Forest High School	Broadneck High School	60%
1	13	Norfolk Collegiate School	Milton Academy	78%
1	14	H. B. Plant High School	Falmouth High School, ME	64%
1	15	Boston College High School	Latin School of Chicago	66%
1	17	Milton Academy	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	71%
1	18	H. B. Plant High School	Lake Forest High School	83%
1	19	Norfolk Collegiate School	Boston College High School	76%
1	20	Falmouth High School, ME	Latin School of Chicago	69%
1	21	Milton Academy	Broadneck High School	76%
1	23	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Boston College High School	26%	upset
1	24	Falmouth High School, ME	Lake Forest High School	74%
1	25	Norfolk Collegiate School	Latin School of Chicago	85%
1	26	H. B. Plant High School	Milton Academy	69%
1	27	Boston College High School	Broadneck High School	78%
1	29	Norfolk Collegiate School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	89%
1	30	Lake Forest High School	Latin School of Chicago	44%	upset
1	31	Boston College High School	H. B. Plant High School	33%	upset
1	32	Falmouth High School, ME	Milton Academy	57%
1	33	Norfolk Collegiate School	Broadneck High School	92%
1	35	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Latin School of Chicago	41%	upset
1	36	Boston College High School	Falmouth High School, ME	46%	upset
1	37	H. B. Plant High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	40%	upset
1	38	Lake Forest High School	Milton Academy	31%	upset
1	39	Broadneck High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	43%	upset
1	41	Norfolk Collegiate School	Falmouth High School, ME	72%
1	42	Boston College High School	Lake Forest High School	71%
2	46	Falmouth High School, ME	Lake Forest High School	74%
2	47	Boston College High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	74%
2	49	Milton Academy	Broadneck High School	77%
2	50	Latin School of Chicago	Norfolk Collegiate School	15%	upset
2	51	Lake Forest High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	53%
2	53	Boston College High School	Broadneck High School	79%
2	54	H. B. Plant High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	40%	upset
2	55	Latin School of Chicago	Milton Academy	37%	upset
2	57	Lake Forest High School	Broadneck High School	60%
2	58	Falmouth High School, ME	Norfolk Collegiate School	28%	upset
2	59	Boston College High School	Milton Academy	53%
2	60	Latin School of Chicago	H. B. Plant High School	21%	upset
2	62	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	11%	upset
2	63	Lake Forest High School	Milton Academy	31%	upset
2	64	Falmouth High School, ME	H. B. Plant High School	37%	upset
2	65	Latin School of Chicago	Boston College High School	34%	upset
2	66	Broadneck High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	8%	upset
2	69	Lake Forest High School	Boston College High School	29%	upset
2	70	Latin School of Chicago	Falmouth High School, ME	31%	upset
2	71	Norfolk Collegiate School	Milton Academy	76%
2	72	Broadneck High School	H. B. Plant High School	12%	upset
2	73	Greenwich High School	Boston College High School	52%
2	74	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Falmouth High School, ME	23%	upset
2	75	Latin School of Chicago	Lake Forest High School	56%
2	76	Milton Academy	H. B. Plant High School	31%	upset
2	77	Norfolk Collegiate School	Boston College High School	74%
2	78	Broadneck High School	Falmouth High School, ME	19%	upset
2	80	Latin School of Chicago	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	59%
2	81	H. B. Plant High School	Boston College High School	66%
2	82	Milton Academy	Falmouth High School, ME	43%	upset
2	83	Norfolk Collegiate School	Lake Forest High School	88%
2	84	Broadneck High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	43%	upset
2	86	Boston College High School	Falmouth High School, ME	46%	upset
2	87	H. B. Plant High School	Lake Forest High School	83%
2	88	Milton Academy	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	72%
3	91	Falmouth High School, ME	Lake Forest High School	75%
3	92	Boston College High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	74%
3	94	Milton Academy	Broadneck High School	77%
3	95	Latin School of Chicago	Norfolk Collegiate School	15%	upset
3	96	Lake Forest High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	53%
3	98	Boston College High School	Broadneck High School	79%
3	99	H. B. Plant High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	41%	upset
3	100	Latin School of Chicago	Milton Academy	37%	upset
3	102	Lake Forest High School	Broadneck High School	60%
3	103	Falmouth High School, ME	Norfolk Collegiate School	29%	upset
3	104	Boston College High School	Milton Academy	53%
3	105	Latin School of Chicago	H. B. Plant High School	21%	upset
3	107	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	11%	upset
3	108	Lake Forest High School	Milton Academy	31%	upset
3	109	Falmouth High School, ME	H. B. Plant High School	38%	upset
3	110	Latin School of Chicago	Boston College High School	34%	upset
3	111	Broadneck High School	Norfolk Collegiate School	9%	upset
3	114	Lake Forest High School	Boston College High School	28%	upset
3	115	Latin School of Chicago	Falmouth High School, ME	30%	upset
3	116	Norfolk Collegiate School	Milton Academy	76%
3	117	Broadneck High School	H. B. Plant High School	12%	upset
3	118	Greenwich High School	Boston College High School	51%
3	119	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Falmouth High School, ME	23%	upset
3	120	Latin School of Chicago	Lake Forest High School	57%
3	121	Milton Academy	H. B. Plant High School	32%	upset
3	122	Norfolk Collegiate School	Boston College High School	74%
3	123	Broadneck High School	Falmouth High School, ME	18%	upset
3	125	Latin School of Chicago	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	59%
3	126	H. B. Plant High School	Boston College High School	66%
3	127	Milton Academy	Falmouth High School, ME	43%	upset
3	128	Norfolk Collegiate School	Lake Forest High School	88%
3	129	Broadneck High School	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	43%	upset
3	131	Boston College High School	Falmouth High School, ME	46%	upset
3	132	H. B. Plant High School	Lake Forest High School	83%
3	133	Milton Academy	Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	72%

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Scouts	4-5-6
2	Yachtsmen	1-2-3	def.	Grizzlies	4-5-6
3	Cardinals	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
4	Panthers	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
5	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Romans	4-5-6
6	Scouts	2-3-4	def.	Grizzlies	1-5-6
7	Cardinals	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
8	Yachtsmen	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
9	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Mustangs	1-5-6
10	Panthers	1-2-4	def.	Romans	3-5-6
11	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Grizzlies	3-4-6
12	Scouts	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
13	Oaks	1-3-5	def.	Mustangs	2-4-6
14	Panthers	1-2-5	def.	Yachtsmen	3-4-6
15	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Romans	3-4-6
16	Cardinals	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
17	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Grizzlies	3-4-6
18	Panthers	1-2-5	def.	Scouts	3-4-6
19	Oaks	1-3-5	def.	Eagles	2-4-6
20	Yachtsmen	1-2-4	def.	Romans	3-5-6
21	Mustangs	1-4-5	def.	Bruins	2-3-6
22	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Cardinals	3-4-5
23	Grizzlies	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
24	Yachtsmen	1-2-5	def.	Scouts	3-4-6
25	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Romans	4-5-6
26	Panthers	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
27	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
28	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Yachtsmen	3-4-6
29	Oaks	1-2-3	def.	Grizzlies	4-5-6
30	Scouts	1-2-6	def.	Romans	3-4-5
31	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Panthers	2-3-6
32	Yachtsmen	1-2-5	def.	Mustangs	3-4-6
33	Oaks	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
34	Cardinals	1-2-5	def.	Scouts	3-4-6
35	Grizzlies	1-2-5	def.	Romans	3-4-6
36	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Yachtsmen	2-4-5
37	Panthers	2-3-4	def.	Oaks	1-5-6
38	Scouts	1-2-3	def.	Mustangs	4-5-6
39	Bruins	1-2-4	def.	Grizzlies	3-5-6
40	Cardinals	1-2-6	def.	Romans	3-4-5
41	Oaks	2-3-5 DSQ	def.	Yachtsmen	1-4-6 DSQ
42	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Scouts	4-5-6
43	Panthers	1-2-5	def.	Grizzlies	3-4-6
44	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Cardinals	4-5-6
45	Bruins	1-2-3	def.	Romans	4-5-6
46	Yachtsmen		def.	Scouts
47	Eagles		def.	Grizzlies
48	Panthers		def.	Cardinals
49	Mustangs		def.	Bruins
50	Romans		def.	Oaks
51	Scouts		def.	Grizzlies
52	Yachtsmen		def.	Cardinals
53	Eagles		def.	Bruins
54	Panthers		def.	Oaks
55	Romans		def.	Mustangs
56	Grizzlies		def.	Cardinals
57	Scouts		def.	Bruins
58	Yachtsmen		def.	Oaks
59	Eagles		def.	Mustangs
60	Romans		def.	Panthers
61	Cardinals		def.	Bruins
62	Grizzlies		def.	Oaks
63	Scouts		def.	Mustangs
64	Yachtsmen		def.	Panthers
65	Romans		def.	Eagles
66	Bruins		def.	Oaks
67	Cardinals		def.	Mustangs
68	Grizzlies		def.	Panthers
69	Scouts		def.	Eagles
70	Romans		def.	Yachtsmen
71	Oaks		def.	Mustangs
72	Bruins		def.	Panthers
73	Cardinals		def.	Eagles
74	Grizzlies		def.	Yachtsmen
75	Romans		def.	Scouts
76	Mustangs		def.	Panthers
77	Oaks		def.	Eagles
78	Bruins		def.	Yachtsmen
79	Cardinals		def.	Scouts
80	Romans		def.	Grizzlies
81	Panthers		def.	Eagles
82	Mustangs		def.	Yachtsmen
83	Oaks		def.	Scouts
84	Bruins		def.	Grizzlies
85	Romans		def.	Cardinals
86	Eagles		def.	Yachtsmen
87	Panthers		def.	Scouts
88	Mustangs		def.	Grizzlies
89	Oaks		def.	Cardinals
90	Romans		def.	Bruins
91	Yachtsmen		def.	Scouts
92	Eagles		def.	Grizzlies
93	Panthers		def.	Cardinals
94	Mustangs		def.	Bruins
95	Romans		def.	Oaks
96	Scouts		def.	Grizzlies
97	Yachtsmen		def.	Cardinals
98	Eagles		def.	Bruins
99	Panthers		def.	Oaks
100	Romans		def.	Mustangs
101	Grizzlies		def.	Cardinals
102	Scouts		def.	Bruins
103	Yachtsmen		def.	Oaks
104	Eagles		def.	Mustangs
105	Romans		def.	Panthers
106	Cardinals		def.	Bruins
107	Grizzlies		def.	Oaks
108	Scouts		def.	Mustangs
109	Yachtsmen		def.	Panthers
110	Romans		def.	Eagles
111	Bruins		def.	Oaks
112	Cardinals		def.	Mustangs
113	Grizzlies		def.	Panthers
114	Scouts		def.	Eagles
115	Romans		def.	Yachtsmen
116	Oaks		def.	Mustangs
117	Bruins		def.	Panthers
118	Cardinals		def.	Eagles
119	Grizzlies		def.	Yachtsmen
120	Romans		def.	Scouts
121	Mustangs		def.	Panthers
122	Oaks		def.	Eagles
123	Bruins		def.	Yachtsmen
124	Cardinals		def.	Scouts
125	Romans		def.	Grizzlies
126	Panthers		def.	Eagles
127	Mustangs		def.	Yachtsmen
128	Oaks		def.	Scouts
129	Bruins		def.	Grizzlies
130	Romans		def.	Cardinals
131	Eagles		def.	Yachtsmen
132	Panthers		def.	Scouts
133	Mustangs		def.	Grizzlies
134	Oaks		def.	Cardinals
135	Romans		def.	Bruins

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
H. B. Plant High School	Panthers	Brandon Geller '19 Connor Nelson '19 Sean Toro '19	Dominic Canonico '19 Tee Chulikavit '19 Spencer Brooks '19
Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Aiden Iacconis '21 Max Anker '20 Pierce Ornstein '18	Kate Russack '18 Angus Manion '21 Isabella Clemens '18
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	Chris Robertson '19 Ellie Maus '18 Parker Purrington '19	Sam Beck '21 Matt Wright '19 Sarah Smith '18
Boston College High School	Eagles	Bedford Will '18 Bell Jed '18 Graziano Nick '19	Dromey Patrick '20 Buckeridge Tyler '19 Moreira Simon '18
Falmouth High School, ME	Yachtsmen	Brendan Mittleider '19 Caleb Robinson '18 Peter Morrissette '18	Ava Brimicombe '21 Emma Cole '21 Catherine Morrissette '20
Lake Forest High School	Scouts	Connor Sheridan '18 Nicholas Elsasser '18 Zach Biela '20	Su Yardimci '18 Casey Murray '20 Gabe Kobza '20
Milton Academy	Mustangs	Ben Monnich '20 Hunter Zonnenberg '19 Jamie Fox '21	Julia O'Connor '19 Isabelle Alex '21 Alexandra Barron '20
Broadneck High School	Bruins	Katherine Bennett '18 Sander Miller '18 Sean Jahnige '18	Julia Tucker '18 Maggie Mckay '18 Nicole Ryan '18
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School	Grizzlies	Alessandra Torres '20 Owen Patterson '19 Wyatt Harley '21	Tj Boland '19 Asha Baddi '20 Francis Depke '21
Latin School of Chicago	Romans	Marleigh Belsley '19 Nikolas Chambers '19 Will Davies '18	Nicholas Peluchiwski '18 Cj Ricci '20 James Nappo '20

Conditions — 05/26/2018 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast

Humidity 67% · Pressure 1009.9 hPa

Temperature

74°F

↑ 80°F ↓ 69°F

Feels like 77°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.2 kn

avg · max 6.7 kn

Gusts to 15.7 kn

From SW (233°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover96% Sunshine9.1 hrs Humidity67% Pressure1009.9 hPa

What this breeze does at Mercy — from fleet racing

Breeze: SW about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Mercy in this breeze: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Mercy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Mercy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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