Milton Academy '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (fleet 1.30) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–13 (46%) as crew 11–3 (79%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 11–13 | 1–3 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 10–0 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (38 matches) the record is 22–16 against 19.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+2.4). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-26 | 2018 NIT Team Racing Regatta | skipper | 0.97 | 0.53 | 11–13 | 12.7 | −0.43 | 0.4 | 84% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | crew | 2.02 | 1.50 | 1–3 | 1.3 | −0.52 | 0.1 | 80% |
| 2017-04-29 | Seawolf Invite | crew | 2.76 | 5.76 | 10–0 | 5.5 | ≥+3.00 | 7.8 | <1% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fall 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| Polar Bear Open | Skipper | B | 8 | 9.9 | -1.51 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| Phebe Corckran King Memorial Trophy | Skipper | B | 5 | 10.4 | 0.23 |
| O'day Qualifier - SailMaine | Crew | A | 2 | 4.5 | — |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Crew | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Crew | B | 1 | 17.0 | — |
| 2018 NIT Team Racing Regatta | Skipper | TR | 9 | 44% | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | B | 2 | 8.5 | 1.31 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Seawolf Invite | Crew | TR | — | — | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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