NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy)

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 5,024 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 56 of 68 matches (82%) with a log-loss of 0.438 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went well for the forecast. Orderliness +0.33 ± 0.29: an orderly event, more orderly than 64% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Tabor Academy Seawolves	2	7.29 school +0.35	Cj Mckenna / Nick Marshall 2.45 Jack Howard / Michael Collins 2.38 Anthony Minder / Cat Shakin 2.06	69%	17–3 (85%)	+3.1
2	St. George's School Dragons	1	7.76 school +0.68	Gray Benson / Amelia Jessop 2.17 John Kirkpatrick / Wyatt Fogg Matt Logue / Ben White 2.63	78%	16–4 (80%)	+0.5
3	Milton Academy Mustangs	4	6.36 school +0.18	Charles Hibben / Alexandra Barron 2.28 Hunter Zonnenberg / Isabelle Alex Jamie Fox / Julia O'Connor 13–3 Jamie Fox / Ben Monnich 1–3	52%	14–6 (70%)	+3.7
4	The Hotchkiss School Bearcats	3	6.62	Tommy Whittemore / Elizabeth Koobatian 2.62 Christopher Lukens / Gwyneth Howell 2.20 John Eastman / Elissa Ito	57%	7–13 (35%)	−4.4
5	Greenwich High School Cardinals	6	4.73 school +0.36	Max Anker / Angus Manion Pierce Ornstein / Isabella Clemens 1.77 Aidan Iaconis / Kate Russack 5–3 Aidan Iaconis / Louisa Bjerke 1–5	31%	6–8 (43%)	+1.7
6	Falmouth High School (ME) Yachtsmen	5	5.21 school −0.22	Caleb Robinson / Alex Mazelsky 2.09 Peter Morrissette / Emma Cole 1.97 Brendan Mittleider / Catherine Carpenter 1.29	39%	6–8 (43%)	+0.5
7	Dartmouth High School Indians	7	4.58 school +0.59	Tony Root / Sadie Thomas Thomas Walker / Ben Will Gracie Woodcock / Lucy Tibbals	31%	1–13 (7%)	−3.3
8	North Kingstown High School Skippers	8	3.90	Alex Dicenso / Nora Ong 1–11 Odey Hariri / Kevin Stamp 0–10 Dixon Wixted / Elsa Kincaid 0–10 Kevin Stamp / Odey Hariri 1–3 Dixon Wixted / Olvia Mazzone 1–3 Alex Dicenso / Coghlin Molly 0–2	19%	1–13 (7%)	−1.7

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	Tabor Academy	7.29	8.64	17–3	13.9	+1.34	2.2	8%
3	Milton Academy	6.36	7.58	14–6	10.4	+1.22	2.5	6%
5	Greenwich High School	4.73	5.54	6–8	4.3	+0.81	0.8	22%
6	Falmouth High School (ME)	5.21	5.44	6–8	5.5	+0.23	0.1	50%
2	St. George's School	7.76	7.96	16–4	15.5	+0.19	0.0	53%
4	The Hotchkiss School	6.62	5.16	7–13	11.4	−1.46	3.6	99%
8	North Kingstown High School	3.90	2.32	1–13	2.7	−1.57	1.3	96%
7	Dartmouth High School	4.58	1.92	1–13	4.3	−2.65	4.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Anthony Minder	Tabor Academy	2.06	3.41	17–3	13.9	+1.34	2.2	8%
Charles Hibben	Milton Academy	2.28	3.50	14–6	10.4	+1.22	2.5	6%
Jamie Fox	Milton Academy	1.90	3.12	14–6	10.4	+1.22	2.5	6%
Aidan Iaconis	Greenwich High School	0.70	1.51	6–8	4.3	+0.81	0.8	22%
Brendan Mittleider	Falmouth High School (ME)	1.29	1.53	6–8	5.5	+0.23	0.1	50%
Tommy Whittemore	The Hotchkiss School	2.62	1.16	7–13	11.4	−1.46	3.6	99%
Alex Dicenso	North Kingstown High School	1.28	-0.29	1–13	2.7	−1.57	1.3	96%
Dixon Wixted	North Kingstown High School	1.55	-0.03	1–13	2.7	−1.57	1.3	96%
Tony Root	Dartmouth High School	0.99	-1.66	1–13	4.3	−2.65	4.1	>99%
Gracie Woodcock	Dartmouth High School	1.05	-1.60	1–13	4.3	−2.65	4.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Mustangs	1-3-4	def.		Yachtsmen	2-5-6
2		Bearcats	1-2-3	def.		Indians	4-5-6
3		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Cardinals	3-4-6
4		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Skippers	3-4-6
5		Mustangs	1-2-6	def.		Bearcats	3-4-5
6		Dragons	1-3-5	def.		Yachtsmen	2-4-6
7		Indians	1-2-3	def.		Skippers	4-5-6
8		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Cardinals	3-4-6
9		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Bearcats	3-4-5
10		Mustangs	1-2-3	def.		Skippers	4-5-6 DSQ
11		Cardinals	2-3-5	def.		Yachtsmen	1-4-6
12		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Indians	3-4-6
13		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Skippers	3-4-6
14		Bearcats	1-2-5	def.		Cardinals	3-4-6
15		Mustangs	1-3-4	def.		Indians	2-5-6
16		Seawolves	1-2-6	def.		Yachtsmen	3-4-5
17		Cardinals	1-2-3	def.		Skippers	4-5-6
18		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Indians	3-4-6
19		Yachtsmen	1-2-6	def.		Bearcats	3-4-5
20		Mustangs	2-3-5	def.		Seawolves	1-4-6
21		Cardinals	1-2-5	def.		Indians	3-4-6
22		Yachtsmen	2-3-5	def.		Skippers	1-4-6
23		Dragons	1-2-4	def.		Mustangs	3-5-6
24		Seawolves	1-4-5	def.		Bearcats	2-3-6
25		Yachtsmen	1-2-5	def.		Indians	3-4-6
26		Mustangs	1-2-5	def.		Cardinals	3-4-6
27		Bearcats	1-2-4	def.		Skippers	3-5-6
28		Dragons	1-2-4	def.		Seawolves	3-5-6
57		Seawolves	1-2-6	def.		Mustangs	3-4-5
58		Dragons	1-2-5	def.		Bearcats	3-4-6
59		Seawolves	1-3-4	def.		Bearcats	2-5-6
60		Mustangs	1-2-5	def.		Dragons	3-4-6
61		Bearcats	1-2-3	def.		Mustangs	4-5-6
62		Dragons	1-2-6	def.		Seawolves	3-4-5
29		Mustangs	2-3-5	def.		Yachtsmen	1-4-6
30		Bearcats	1-2-6	def.		Indians	3-4-5
31		Dragons	1-2-3	def.		Cardinals	4-5-6
32		Seawolves	1-2-6	def.		Skippers	3-4-5
33		Mustangs	1-3-5	def.		Bearcats	2-4-6
34		Dragons	1-2-4	def.		Yachtsmen	3-5-6
35		Skippers	1-2-4	def.		Indians	3-5-6
36		Seawolves	1-2-4	def.		Cardinals	3-5-6
37		Dragons	1-2-3	def.		Bearcats	4-5-6
38		Mustangs	1-2-3	def.		Skippers	4-5-6
39		Yachtsmen	3-4-5	def.		Cardinals	1-2-6 DSQ
40		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Indians	3-4-6
41		Dragons	1-2-3	def.		Skippers	4-5-6
42		Cardinals	1-3-6	def.		Bearcats	2-4-5
43		Mustangs	1-2-5	def.		Indians	3-4-6
44		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Yachtsmen	4-5-6
45		Cardinals	2-3-4	def.		Skippers	1-5-6
46		Dragons	1-2-4	def.		Indians	3-5-6
47		Bearcats	1-2-5	def.		Yachtsmen	3-4-6
48		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Mustangs	3-4-6
49		Cardinals	1-2-6	def.		Indians	3-4-5
50		Yachtsmen	1-4-5	def.		Skippers	2-3-6
51		Mustangs	1-2-5	def.		Dragons	3-4-6
52		Seawolves	1-4-5	def.		Bearcats	2-3-6
53		Yachtsmen	1-2-5	def.		Indians	3-4-6
54		Mustangs	1-2-3	def.		Cardinals	4-5-6
55		Bearcats	2-3-5	def.		Skippers	1-4-6
56		Seawolves	1-3-5	def.		Dragons	2-4-6
63		Seawolves	1-2-3	def.		Mustangs	4-5-6
64		Dragons	1-4-5	def.		Bearcats	2-3-6
65		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Bearcats	3-4-6
66		Dragons	1-2-4	def.		Mustangs	3-5-6
67		Mustangs	1-2-4	def.		Bearcats	3-5-6
68		Seawolves	1-2-5	def.		Dragons	3-4-6

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Anthony Minder '19 Cj Mckenna '18 Jack Howard '19	Cat Shakin '19 Nick Marshall '18 Michael Collins '18
	St. George's School	Dragons	Gray Benson '18 John Kirkpatrick '18 Matt Logue '18	Amelia Jessop '21 Wyatt Fogg '19 Ben White '18
	Milton Academy	Mustangs	Charles Hibben '18 Hunter Zonnenberg '20 Jamie Fox '21	Alexandra Barron '20 Isabelle Alex '21 Julia O'Connor '20 Ben Monnich '20
	The Hotchkiss School	Bearcats	Christopher Lukens '19 John Eastman '20 Tommy Whittemore '18	Gwyneth Howell '20 Elissa Ito '19 Elizabeth Koobatian '19
	Greenwich High School	Cardinals	Aidan Iaconis '21 Max Anker '20 Pierce Ornstein '18	Kate Russack '18 Louisa Bjerke '18 Angus Manion '21 Isabella Clemens '18
	Falmouth High School (ME)	Yachtsmen	Brendan Mittleider '19 Caleb Robinson '18 Peter Morrissette '18	Catherine Carpenter '19 Alex Mazelsky '20 Emma Cole '21
	Dartmouth High School	Indians	Gracie Woodcock '19 Thomas Walker '20 Tony Root '18	Lucy Tibbals '19 Ben Will '18 Sadie Thomas '19
	North Kingstown High School	Skippers	Alex Dicenso '19 Dixon Wixted '21 Kevin Stamp '18 Odey Hariri '20	Nora Ong '19 Coghlin Molly '21 Elsa Kincaid '18 Olvia Mazzone '19 Odey Hariri '20 Kevin Stamp '18