Dartmouth High School '20
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.78 (fleet 2.88) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 6–14 (30%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 5–1 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 1 | 1–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 6–14 against 8.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−2.8). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-11 | Cape & Islands Team Racing Championship | skipper | 1.72 | 2.39 | 5–1 | 4.5 | +0.67 | 0.2 | 55% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | skipper | 1.65 | -1.00 | 1–13 | 4.3 | −2.65 | 4.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.3 | 1.84 |
| Cape & Islands Team Racing Championship | Skipper | TR | 10 | 80% | — |
| Cape and Islands Fleet Championship | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.4 | 0.22 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Greenwich, CT | Skipper | A | 5 | 4.0 | 2.08 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Fritz Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 14 | 7% | — |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.8 | 0.21 |
| Cape & Islands Fleet Champs | Skipper | A | 6 | 3.0 | 2.13 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Thomas Walker |  Hobart and William Smith Colleges |
'24 |
| ISSA | Thomas Walker |  Brookline High |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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