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O'Day Qualifier - Marion

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 26 12 38
2 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 37 29 66
3 Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 44 34 78
4 Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 30 48 78
5 Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 40 43 83
6 Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 60 37 97
7 Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Clippers 36 66 102
8 St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep Eagles 51 61 112
9 Sandwich Middle High School Sandwich Middle High School Blue Knights 81 77 158
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 1 5 4 2 3 7 1 2 1 26 Jack Howard '19 [1-9]
Henry Worden '20 [1-2]
Menasha Leport '21 [3-9]
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 6 3 7 1 1 6 2 1 3 30 Thomas Walker '20
Lucy Tibbals '19
Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Clippers 2 1 3 6 8 1 4 7 4 36 Nicholas Dryer '21 [1-9]
Shefali Singh '19 [1-4]
Celia Lewis '20 [5-8]
Maia Armitage '20 [9]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 5 2 1 4 6 2 6 6 5 37 Joe Serpa '20
Abigail Hammerlund '20
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 3 6 2 8 4 4 3 3 7 40 Taylor Eastman '20
Lilly Mathieu '19
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 4 4 5 5 5 3 8 4 6 44 Charles Kreuzkamp '20
Kaleigh Morgan '19
St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep Eagles 8 8 8 3 2 5 7 8 2 51 Wilson Kaznoski '20
Evan Symes '19
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 7 7 6 7 7 8 5 5 8 60 Christopher Anchan '19 [1-8]
Krishanu Datta '19 [9]
Tyler Vanhelene '19 [1-8]
Fiona Wu '21 [9]
Sandwich Middle High School Sandwich Middle High School Blue Knights 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 81 Tiernan O'Kane '22 [1-6]
Ali Senior '20 [7-9]
Justin Higgins '20 [1-2, 5-9]
Ali Senior '20 [3-4]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 1 12 Jack Corbett '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Anthony Minder '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Harper Mckerrow '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Cat Shakin '19 [3-4, 7-9]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders 1 7 2 4 3 2 1 4 5 29 Miles Wolff '22 [1-9]
Caleb Burt '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Ashtyn Watts '21 [5-6, 9]
Barrington High School Barrington High School Eagles 5 2 3 6 4 3 6 3 2 34 Josh Dillon '21
Drew Dillon '19
Sharon High School Sharon High School Eagles 3 3 6 5 5 4 4 1 6 37 Miguel Vonfedak '19 [1-8]
Janelle Li '21 [9]
Addison Stead '19 [1-8]
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 4 4 8 2 2 7 7 6 3 43 John Cilizzi '19 [1-7]
Joshua Hersey '20 [8-9]
Caroline Lewis '20 [1-7]
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians DSQ 6 5 3 7 5 3 5 4 48 Charlie Fairfax '22
Izaiah Farr '19
St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep Eagles 6 8 7 7 8 6 5 7 7 61 George Lockwood '20 [1-6]
Jasper Westhoven '19 [7-9]
Enrique Ruiz '22 [1-6]
Jack Brown '19 [7-9]
Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Clippers 7 5 4 9 6 8 DNF 8 9 66 Ava Warner '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Grant Leachman '20 [3-4, 7-8]
Jack Underhill '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Maia Armitage '20 [3-4]
Courtney Frangioso '20 [7-8]
Shu-Tong Murray '20 [9]
Sandwich Middle High School Sandwich Middle High School Blue Knights 8 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 8 77 Ethan Martin '23
Thomas Greeley '19
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A
Barnstable HSBarnstable HS Raiders113355779
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles224466881
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians335577992
Falmouth High School, MAFalmouth High School, MA Clippers446688113
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders557799224
Sandwich Middle High SchoolSandwich Middle High School Blue Knights668811335
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles779922446
St. Johns PrepSt. Johns Prep Eagles881133557
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves992244668

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B
Barnstable HSBarnstable HS Raiders111113131515171710
Barrington High SchoolBarrington High School Eagles121214141616181811
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians131315151717101012
Falmouth High School, MAFalmouth High School, MA Clippers141416161818111113
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders151517171010121214
Sandwich Middle High SchoolSandwich Middle High School Blue Knights161618181111131315
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Eagles171710101212141416
St. Johns PrepSt. Johns Prep Eagles181811111313151517
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves101012121414161618
School / Team SkipperCrew
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Taylor Eastman '20 Lilly Mathieu '19
Raiders John Cilizzi '19 [1-7]
Joshua Hersey '20 [8-9]		 Caroline Lewis '20 [1-7]
Barrington High School Barrington High School Charles Kreuzkamp '20 Kaleigh Morgan '19
Eagles Josh Dillon '21 Drew Dillon '19
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Thomas Walker '20 Lucy Tibbals '19
Indians Charlie Fairfax '22 Izaiah Farr '19
Falmouth High School, MA Falmouth High School, MA Nicholas Dryer '21 [1-9] Shefali Singh '19 [1-4]
Celia Lewis '20 [5-8]
Maia Armitage '20 [9]
Clippers Ava Warner '20 [1-2, 5-6, 9]
Grant Leachman '20 [3-4, 7-8]		 Jack Underhill '20 [1-2, 5-6]
Maia Armitage '20 [3-4]
Courtney Frangioso '20 [7-8]
Shu-Tong Murray '20 [9]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Joe Serpa '20 Abigail Hammerlund '20
Vineyarders Miles Wolff '22 [1-9] Caleb Burt '21 [1-4, 7-8]
Ashtyn Watts '21 [5-6, 9]
Sandwich Middle High School Sandwich Middle High School Tiernan O'Kane '22 [1-6]
Ali Senior '20 [7-9]		 Justin Higgins '20 [1-2, 5-9]
Ali Senior '20 [3-4]
Blue Knights Ethan Martin '23 Thomas Greeley '19
Sharon High School Sharon High School Christopher Anchan '19 [1-8]
Krishanu Datta '19 [9]		 Tyler Vanhelene '19 [1-8]
Fiona Wu '21 [9]
Eagles Miguel Vonfedak '19 [1-8]
Janelle Li '21 [9]		 Addison Stead '19 [1-8]
St. Johns Prep St. Johns Prep Wilson Kaznoski '20 Evan Symes '19
Eagles George Lockwood '20 [1-6]
Jasper Westhoven '19 [7-9]		 Enrique Ruiz '22 [1-6]
Jack Brown '19 [7-9]
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Jack Howard '19 [1-9] Henry Worden '20 [1-2]
Menasha Leport '21 [3-9]
Seawolves Jack Corbett '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Anthony Minder '19 [3-4, 7-9]		 Harper Mckerrow '19 [1-2, 5-6]
Cat Shakin '19 [3-4, 7-9]

Conditions — 04/13/2019 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 95%  ·  Pressure 1018.3 hPa

Temperature

54°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 53°F
Feels like 49°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
11.7 kn
avg  ·  max 13.0 kn
Gusts to 29.4 kn
From SSW (210°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover97% Sunshine2.6 hrs Humidity95% Pressure1018.3 hPa Rain0.58 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: SW 14 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Tabor Academy: a strongly favourites’ day (+0.23)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.06 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.28
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.30 ± 0.16)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.23 means a rating gap counts about 20% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tabor Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Tabor Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →