Barnstable HS '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.80 (fleet 1.29) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 19–3 (86%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 | 1 | 3–3 | — |
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 14–0 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | 2–0 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 3 graded regattas (20 matches) the record is 17–3 against 12.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+4.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 12 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019-05-18 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.11 | -0.27 | 3–3 | 4.4 | −1.38 | 1.1 | 96% |
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.07 | 4.07 | 10–0 | 4.8 | ≥+3.00 | 9.8 | <1% |
| 2018-04-07 | Clipper Challenge | skipper | 1.16 | 4.16 | 4–0 | 3.0 | ≥+3.00 | 1.5 | 31% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2019 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion | Skipper | B | 7 | 4.9 | 0.60 |
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 7 | 43% | — |
| FIGAWI High school Invitational | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.7 | 0.65 |
| Cape and Islands Fleet Championship | Skipper | B | 6 | 4.5 | 0.37 |
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 70% | — |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 2 | 16.0 | -2.21 |
| Clipper Challenge | Skipper | TR | 5 | 100% | — |
| Cape & Islands Fleet Champs | Skipper | B | 2 | 2.5 | 2.47 |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Falmouth 6X Team Race | Skipper | TR | 10 | 40% | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
