NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy)

HostUnregistered-NESSA
Date05/19/2018
TypeDistrict Tournament
BoatFirefly
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Boston College High School	Eagles	16–4
2	Barnstable HS	Raiders	14–6
3	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	12–8
4	Sharon High School	Eagles	11–9
5	Moses Brown School	Quakers	6–8
6	Fairfield Prep	Jesuits	4–10
7	Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	3–11
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 5,024 team race matches sailed before 2018-05-19, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 46 of 68 matches (68%) with a log-loss of 0.604 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.06 ± 0.36: a typical event, more orderly than 36% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Boston College High School Eagles	2	4.67 school +0.09	Bedford Will / Creamer Zachary 1.43 Bell Jed / Buckeridge Tyler 1.54 Graziano Nick / Moreira Simon 1.49	63%	16–4 (80%)	+3.4
2	Barnstable HS Raiders	3	3.96	Joshua Hersey / Mikayla Mathieu 1.50 Taylor Eastman / Riley Mee 1.18 Caroline Martone / Caroline Lewis 1.14 4–6 John Cilizzi / Caroline Lewis 1.07 10–0	48%	14–6 (70%)	+4.3
3	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	1	5.13 school +0.88	Brooke Shachoy / Lidia Goldberg 2.37 Frankie Doyle / Zoe Ting 1.49 Danny Noenickx / Emma Harden 0.25	73%	12–8 (60%)	−2.5
4	Sharon High School Eagles	5	3.85 school +0.23	Arthur Rabinovich / Lynn Fu 1.35 Colin Snow / Alissa Chen 1.02 Kevin Li / Eddie Bielawa 1.14 8–8 Ben Xu / Merrick Tian 1.43 3–1	46%	11–9 (55%)	+1.9
5	Moses Brown School Quakers	7	3.48 school −0.17	Aili Moffet / Francie Elliot 3–5 Alexander Runci / Maddy Kerr 1.10 3–5 Henry Lee / Grace Sawicki 1.20 3–5 Aili Moffet / Greta Shuster 3–3 Alexander Runci / Olivia Klipfel 1.10 3–3 Henry Lee / Niku Angier 1.17 3–3	43%	6–8 (43%)	+0.0
6	Fairfield Prep Jesuits	6	3.66	Jamie Paul / Ronan Flynn Chase Reynolds / Sean Sullivan Garrett Cutler / Roberto Chadwick	45%	4–10 (29%)	−2.3
7	Portsmouth Abbey School Ravens	8	2.40	Evan Boyd / Jackie Morrison 3–7 Patrick Flanigan / Ashley Breyer 1–5 Gabe Sotomayor / Zack Bartley 1–5 Evan Boyd / Ceci Bohan 0–4 Faith Cournoyer / Aidan Brown 0–4 Gabe Sotomayor / Aidan Brown 2–2 Patrick Flanigan / Jenna Palmer 1–3 Faith Cournoyer / Jackie Morrison 0–2 Faith Cournoyer / David Sozanski 1–1	23%	3–11 (21%)	−0.2
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	4	3.68 school +0.07	Coltrane Leport / Trent Bilodeau 1.07 Patrick Flahrety / Menasha Leport 1–7 Joe Serpa / Abigail Hammerlund 1–7 Joe Serpa / Caleb Burt 1–5 Zach Ward / Menasha Leport 1–5	46%	2–12 (14%)	−4.5

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Barnstable HS	3.96	5.23	14–6	9.7	+1.27	3.0	4%
1	Boston College High School	4.67	5.82	16–4	12.6	+1.16	2.1	8%
4	Sharon High School	3.85	4.38	11–9	9.1	+0.53	0.6	26%
5	Moses Brown School	3.48	3.49	6–8	6.0	+0.00	0.0	60%
7	Portsmouth Abbey School	2.40	2.29	3–11	3.2	−0.10	0.0	65%
3	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	5.13	4.37	12–8	14.5	−0.77	1.1	94%
6	Fairfield Prep	3.66	2.65	4–10	6.4	−1.01	1.3	95%
8	Marthas Vineyard RHS	3.68	1.40	2–12	6.5	−2.27	5.1	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
John Cilizzi	Barnstable HS	1.07	4.07	10–0	4.8	≥+3.00	9.8	<1%
Joshua Hersey	Barnstable HS	1.50	2.77	14–6	9.7	+1.27	3.0	4%
Bedford Will	Boston College High School	1.43	2.58	16–4	12.6	+1.16	2.1	8%
Bell Jed	Boston College High School	1.54	2.69	16–4	12.6	+1.16	2.1	8%
Graziano Nick	Boston College High School	1.49	2.65	16–4	12.6	+1.16	2.1	8%
Ben Xu	Sharon High School	1.43	2.46	3–1	2.3	+1.03	0.4	43%
Arthur Rabinovich	Sharon High School	1.35	1.88	11–9	9.1	+0.53	0.6	26%
Gabe Sotomayor	Portsmouth Abbey School	0.65	1.17	3–7	2.2	+0.52	0.2	40%
Kevin Li	Sharon High School	1.14	1.56	8–8	6.8	+0.41	0.3	36%
Aili Moffet	Moses Brown School	1.21	1.22	6–8	6.0	+0.00	0.0	60%
Alexander Runci	Moses Brown School	1.10	1.11	6–8	6.0	+0.00	0.0	60%
Evan Boyd	Portsmouth Abbey School	1.02	0.91	3–11	3.2	−0.10	0.0	65%
Patrick Flanigan	Portsmouth Abbey School	0.52	0.24	2–8	2.4	−0.29	0.1	73%
Caroline Martone	Barnstable HS	1.14	0.69	4–6	4.8	−0.45	0.2	80%
Frankie Doyle	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	1.49	0.73	12–8	14.5	−0.77	1.1	94%
Danny Noenickx	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	0.25	-0.52	12–8	14.5	−0.77	1.1	94%
Faith Cournoyer	Portsmouth Abbey School	0.68	-0.21	1–7	1.8	−0.89	0.3	87%
Jamie Paul	Fairfield Prep	1.61	0.60	4–10	6.4	−1.01	1.3	95%
Garrett Cutler	Fairfield Prep	0.52	-0.49	4–10	6.4	−1.01	1.3	95%
Zach Ward	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.05	-0.57	1–5	2.4	−1.62	1.2	96%
Coltrane Leport	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.07	-1.21	2–12	6.5	−2.27	5.1	>99%
Patrick Flahrety	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.01	-1.74	1–7	4.0	−2.75	4.1	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Barnstable HS	Moses Brown School	59%
1	2	Sharon High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	76%
1	3	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Fairfield Prep	78%
1	4	Boston College High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	70%
1	5	Barnstable HS	Portsmouth Abbey School	78%
1	6	Fairfield Prep	Moses Brown School	51%
1	7	Sharon High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	59%
1	8	Boston College High School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	41%	upset
1	9	Portsmouth Abbey School	Fairfield Prep	30%	upset
1	10	Barnstable HS	Marthas Vineyard RHS	55%
1	11	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Moses Brown School	77%
1	12	Boston College High School	Sharon High School	66%
1	13	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Fairfield Prep	51%
1	14	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Portsmouth Abbey School	88%
1	15	Barnstable HS	Sharon High School	53%
1	16	Boston College High School	Moses Brown School	70%
1	17	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Marthas Vineyard RHS	75%
1	18	Fairfield Prep	Sharon High School	42%	upset
1	19	Portsmouth Abbey School	Moses Brown School	32%	upset
1	20	Boston College High School	Barnstable HS	63%
1	21	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Sharon High School	74%
1	22	Moses Brown School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	45%	upset
1	23	Barnstable HS	Fairfield Prep	55%
1	24	Boston College High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	86%
1	25	Sharon High School	Moses Brown School	56%
1	26	Barnstable HS	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	28%	upset
1	27	Portsmouth Abbey School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	26%	upset
1	28	Boston College High School	Fairfield Prep	68%
1	57	Barnstable HS	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	28%	upset
1	58	Boston College High School	Sharon High School	67%
1	59	Barnstable HS	Sharon High School	54%
1	60	Boston College High School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	41%	upset
1	61	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Sharon High School	74%
1	62	Boston College High School	Barnstable HS	63%
2	29	Moses Brown School	Barnstable HS	41%	upset
2	30	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Portsmouth Abbey School	73%
2	31	Sharon High School	Fairfield Prep	57%
2	32	Boston College High School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	41%	upset
2	33	Barnstable HS	Portsmouth Abbey School	77%
2	34	Moses Brown School	Fairfield Prep	47%	upset
2	35	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Marthas Vineyard RHS	75%
2	36	Sharon High School	Boston College High School	34%	upset
2	37	Fairfield Prep	Portsmouth Abbey School	72%
2	38	Barnstable HS	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	28%	upset
2	39	Sharon High School	Moses Brown School	56%
2	40	Boston College High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	67%
2	41	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Fairfield Prep	75%
2	42	Sharon High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	74%
2	43	Barnstable HS	Marthas Vineyard RHS	54%
2	44	Moses Brown School	Boston College High School	30%	upset
2	45	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Sharon High School	74%
2	46	Fairfield Prep	Marthas Vineyard RHS	50%	upset
2	47	Moses Brown School	Portsmouth Abbey School	70%
2	48	Boston College High School	Barnstable HS	63%
2	49	Sharon High School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	56%
2	50	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Moses Brown School	77%
2	51	Barnstable HS	Fairfield Prep	53%
2	52	Boston College High School	Portsmouth Abbey School	86%
2	53	Moses Brown School	Marthas Vineyard RHS	45%	upset
2	54	Sharon High School	Barnstable HS	46%	upset
2	55	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Portsmouth Abbey School	88%
2	56	Boston College High School	Fairfield Prep	67%
2	63	Barnstable HS	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	28%	upset
2	64	Boston College High School	Sharon High School	67%
2	65	Sharon High School	Barnstable HS	46%	upset
2	66	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Boston College High School	59%
2	67	Sharon High School	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	26%	upset
2	68	Barnstable HS	Boston College High School	37%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Raiders	1-4-5	def.	Quakers	2-3-6
2	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Ravens	2-4-5
3	Knights	1-3-5	def.	Jesuits	2-4-6
4	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Vineyarders	4-5-6
5	Raiders	1-3-6	def.	Ravens	2-4-5
6	Jesuits	2-3-4	def.	Quakers	1-5-6
7	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Vineyarders	2-4-6
8	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Knights	2-5-6
9	Ravens	1-2-6	def.	Jesuits	3-4-5
10	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-6
11	Knights	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
12	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
13	Vineyarders	1-4-5	def.	Jesuits	2-3-6
14	Knights	1-2-6	def.	Ravens	3-4-5
15	Raiders	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6 DNF
16	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Quakers	2-4-5
17	Knights	1-2-3	def.	Vineyarders	4-5-6
18	Jesuits	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
19	Ravens	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
20	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
21	Knights	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
22	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Vineyarders	3-5-6
23	Raiders	1-3-5	def.	Jesuits	2-4-6
24	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Ravens	4-5-6
25	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Quakers	3-4-5
26	Raiders	1-4-5	def.	Knights	2-3-6
27	Ravens	1-2-5	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-6
28	Eagles	1-3-4	def.	Jesuits	2-5-6
57	Raiders	2-3-5	def.	Knights	1-4-6
58	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
59	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Eagles	3-5-6
60	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Knights	3-5-6
61	Knights	1-2-5	def.	Eagles	3-4-6
62	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Raiders	2-4-6
29	Quakers	1-2-4	def.	Raiders	3-5-6 RAF
30	Vineyarders	1-2-6	def.	Ravens	3-4-5
31	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Jesuits	3-4-6
32	Eagles	2-3-4	def.	Knights	1-5-6
33	Raiders	1-2-6	def.	Ravens	3-4-5
34	Quakers	1-2-3	def.	Jesuits	4-5-6
35	Knights	1-2-4	def.	Vineyarders	3-5-6
36	Eagles	1-3-6	def.	Eagles	2-4-5
37	Jesuits	1-2-3	def.	Ravens	4-5-6
38	Raiders	1-4-5	def.	Knights	2-3-6
39	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Quakers	3-5-6
40	Eagles	1-2-6	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-5
41	Knights	1-2-3	def.	Jesuits	4-5-6
42	Eagles	1-2-4	def.	Ravens	3-5-6
43	Raiders	1-3-6	def.	Vineyarders	2-4-5
44	Quakers	1-4-5	def.	Eagles	2-3-6
45	Knights	2-3-4	def.	Eagles	1-5-6
46	Jesuits	1-2-6	def.	Vineyarders	3-4-5
47	Quakers	1-3-5	def.	Ravens	2-4-6
48	Eagles	2-3-5	def.	Raiders	1-4-6
49	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Vineyarders	4-5-6
50	Knights	1-2-5	def.	Quakers	3-4-6
51	Raiders	1-2-4	def.	Jesuits	3-5-6
52	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Ravens	4-5-6
53	Quakers	1-3-4	def.	Vineyarders	2-5-6
54	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Raiders	4-5-6
55	Knights	1-3-4	def.	Ravens	2-5-6
56	Eagles	1-3-5	def.	Jesuits	2-4-6
63	Raiders	1-3-4	def.	Knights	2-5-6
64	Eagles	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6
65	Eagles	1-2-5	def.	Raiders	3-4-6
66	Knights	1-2-6	def.	Eagles	3-4-5
67	Eagles	1-4-5	def.	Knights	2-3-6
68	Raiders	1-2-3	def.	Eagles	4-5-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Boston College High School	Eagles	Bedford Will '18 Bell Jed '18 Graziano Nick '19	Creamer Zachary '19 Buckeridge Tyler '19 Moreira Simon '18
Barnstable HS	Raiders	Caroline Martone '18 John Cilizzi '19 Joshua Hersey '20 Taylor Eastman '20	Caroline Lewis '20 Mikayla Mathieu '18 Riley Mee '18
BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	Brooke Shachoy '18 Danny Noenickx '18 Frankie Doyle '18	Lidia Goldberg '18 Emma Harden '20 Zoe Ting '18
Sharon High School	Eagles	Arthur Rabinovich '18 Ben Xu '18 Colin Snow '18 Kevin Li '18	Lynn Fu '18 Merrick Tian '18 Alissa Chen '18 Eddie Bielawa '20
Moses Brown School	Quakers	Aili Moffet '19 Alexander Runci '19 Henry Lee '20	Francie Elliot '18 Greta Shuster '21 Maddy Kerr '19 Olivia Klipfel '21 Grace Sawicki '19 Niku Angier '19
Fairfield Prep	Jesuits	Chase Reynolds '20 Garrett Cutler '20 Jamie Paul '20	Sean Sullivan '21 Roberto Chadwick '20 Ronan Flynn '18
Portsmouth Abbey School	Ravens	Evan Boyd '19 Faith Cournoyer '19 Gabe Sotomayor '18 Patrick Flanigan '19	Ceci Bohan '20 Jackie Morrison '18 Aidan Brown '20 David Sozanski '19 Zack Bartley '20 Ashley Breyer '20 Jenna Palmer '20
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	Coltrane Leport '18 Joe Serpa '20 Patrick Flahrety '20 Zach Ward '21	Trent Bilodeau '21 Caleb Burt '21 Abigail Hammerlund '20 Menasha Leport '21

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →