Moses Brown School '19
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.69 (fleet 1.11) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as crew 8–15 (35%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 1 | — | 3–5 |
| Spring 2017 | 1 | — | 5–10 |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (23 matches) the record is 8–15 against 11.7 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.7). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 4 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | crew | 1.20 | 1.32 | 3–5 | 2.8 | +0.12 | 0.0 | 59% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | crew | 0.89 | -0.89 | 5–10 | 8.9 | −1.78 | 3.8 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Crew | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| NESSA Girls Championship (Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | B | 1 | 5.0 | — |
| Fall 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| Arnold Brown Regatta 2017 | Crew | A | 4 | 5.8 | — |
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Crew | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| NESSA Women's Champs (Herreshoff) | Skipper | A | 9 | 9.7 | 0.05 |
| NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Portland | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.5 | 0.49 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| Sail Black Rock Intersectional | Crew | A | 5 | 9.8 | — |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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