NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy)

Pre-event forecast?

Fitted on the 3,532 team race matches sailed before 2017-05-20, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 35 of 45 matches (78%) with a log-loss of 0.566 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. Orderliness −0.66 ± 0.34: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 13% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	North Kingstown High School Skippers	1	5.90 school −0.25	Mikey O'Flaherty / Kevin Stamp 1.76 Marina Barzaghi / Adeline Sutton 2.22 9–0 Aidan Naughton / Jaia Colongese 2.12 9–0 Marina Barzaghi / Elsa Kincaid 2.19 6–0 Aidan Naughton / Will Andrews 2.11 6–0	87%	15–0 (100%)	+1.9
2	Sharon High School Eagles	3	4.00 school −0.18	Jack Eberhardt / Lynn Fu 1.85 Meghan Haviland / Colin Snow 1.75 Gautam Goel / Alissa Chen 9–3 Aaron Fairchild / Merrick Tian 3–0	54%	12–3 (80%)	+3.9
3	Barnstable HS Raiders	4	3.59	Taylor Eastman / Shannon Macdonald 1.07 Christopher Adams / Lilly Mathieu 0.81 Matt Hersey / Mikayla Mathieu 1.77 6–6 Caroline Martone / Chuck Nystrom 0.87 0–3	49%	6–9 (40%)	−1.3
4	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols Knights	6	1.15 school +0.31	Lidia Goldberg / Lydia Austin Max Gudwin / Robert Brower Trevor Donovan / Frankie Doyle	9%	5–10 (33%)	+3.6
5	Moses Brown School Quakers	2	4.30 school +0.22	Colin Moffet / Grace Sawicki Adrian Van Der Wal / Hannah Kinder 1.92 Henry Lee / Niku Angier 1–8 Alexander Runci / Skyler Sullivan 4–2	59%	5–10 (33%)	−3.9
6	Wellesley High School Raiders	5	3.40 school +0.25	Owen Ward / Margaret Benson 0–9 Hailey Feinzig / Eleanor Bennett 0–9 Chase Ireland / Elizabeth Harrington 0–9 Owen Ward / Maia Grissino 2–4 Hailey Feinzig / Thomas Gartley 2–4 Chase Ireland / Emily Lo 2–4	42%	2–13 (13%)	−4.2

Surprisal: who beat their rating?

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
1	North Kingstown High School	5.90	8.90	15–0	13.1	≥+3.00	2.7	12%
4	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	1.15	3.29	5–10	1.4	+2.13	5.0	1%
2	Sharon High School	4.00	6.00	12–3	8.1	+2.00	4.2	2%
3	Barnstable HS	3.59	2.96	6–9	7.3	−0.63	0.5	87%
5	Moses Brown School	4.30	2.52	5–10	8.9	−1.78	3.8	>99%
6	Wellesley High School	3.40	0.82	2–13	6.2	−2.59	5.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Mikey O'Flaherty	North Kingstown High School	1.76	4.76	15–0	13.1	≥+3.00	2.7	12%
Aidan Naughton	North Kingstown High School	2.12	5.12	15–0	13.1	≥+3.00	2.7	12%
Aaron Fairchild	Sharon High School	0.89	3.89	3–0	2.1	≥+3.00	1.4	32%
Lidia Goldberg	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	0.78	2.92	5–10	1.4	+2.13	5.0	1%
Max Gudwin	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	-0.29	1.85	5–10	1.4	+2.13	5.0	1%
Gautam Goel	Sharon High School	0.38	2.19	9–3	6.0	+1.81	3.0	5%
Alexander Runci	Moses Brown School	0.87	1.18	4–2	3.7	+0.32	0.1	57%
Christopher Adams	Barnstable HS	0.81	0.19	6–9	7.3	−0.63	0.5	87%
Colin Moffet	Moses Brown School	0.89	-0.89	5–10	8.9	−1.78	3.8	>99%
Adrian Van Der Wal	Moses Brown School	1.92	0.14	5–10	8.9	−1.78	3.8	>99%
Caroline Martone	Barnstable HS	0.87	-2.13	0–3	0.3	≤−3.00	0.4	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

#	Winner				Loser		Pos.
1		Raiders	1-4-5	def.		Knights	2-3-6
2		Skippers	1-2-3	def.		Quakers	4-5-6
3		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
4		Skippers	1-2-5	def.		Knights	3-4-6
5		Raiders	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
6		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Quakers	3-4-6
7		Skippers	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
8		Knights	1-2-6	def.		Quakers	3-4-5
9		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
10		Quakers	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
11		Skippers	1-2-5	def.		Raiders	3-4-6
12		Eagles	1-2-4	def.		Knights	3-5-6
13		Quakers	1-4-5	def.		Raiders	2-3-6
14		Raiders	1-4-5	def.		Knights	2-3-6
15		Skippers	1-2-6	def.		Eagles	3-4-5
16		Raiders	2-3-4	def.		Knights	1-5-6
17		Skippers	1-2-5	def.		Quakers	3-4-6
18		Eagles	2-3-5	def.		Raiders	1-4-6
19		Skippers	1-2-6	def.		Knights	3-4-5
20		Raiders	2-3-4	def.		Raiders	1-5-6
21		Eagles	1-2-3	def.		Quakers	4-5-6
22		Skippers	1-2-5	def.		Raiders	3-4-6
23		Quakers	1-4-5	def.		Knights	2-3-6
24		Eagles	2-3-5	def.		Raiders	1-4-6
25		Raiders	1-3-6	def.		Quakers	2-4-5
26		Skippers	1-3-6	def.		Raiders	2-4-5
27		Eagles	1-2-5	def.		Knights	3-4-6
28		Quakers	1-2-5	def.		Raiders	3-4-6
29		Knights	1-3-5	def.		Raiders	2-4-6
30		Skippers	1-2-5	def.		Eagles	3-4-6
31		Skippers	1-2-3	def.		Raiders	4-5-6
32		Eagles	2-3-4	def.		Knights	1-5-6
33		Raiders	1-3-4	def.		Quakers	2-5-6
34		Skippers	1-2-5	def.		Knights	3-4-6
35		Quakers	2-3-4	def.		Raiders	1-5-6
36		Eagles	1-2-6	def.		Raiders	3-4-5
37		Knights	2-3-4	def.		Raiders	1-5-6
38		Eagles	1-2-4	def.		Raiders	3-5-6
39		Skippers	1-2-5	def.		Quakers	3-4-6
40		Skippers	1-2-4	def.		Raiders	3-5-6
41		Eagles	1-2-4	def.		Quakers	3-5-6
42		Knights	1-3-5	def.		Raiders	2-4-6
43		Skippers	1-2-6	def.		Eagles	3-4-5
44		Raiders	1-3-6	def.		Raiders	2-4-5
45		Knights	1-2-6	def.		Quakers	3-4-5

	School	Team	Skippers	Crew
	North Kingstown High School	Skippers	Aidan Naughton '18 Marina Barzaghi '17 Mikey O'Flaherty '17	Jaia Colongese '18 Will Andrews '17 Adeline Sutton '17 Elsa Kincaid '18 Kevin Stamp '18
	Sharon High School	Eagles	Aaron Fairchild '17 Gautam Goel '17 Jack Eberhardt '17 Meghan Haviland '17	Merrick Tian '18 Alissa Chen '18 Lynn Fu '18 Colin Snow '18
	Barnstable HS	Raiders	Caroline Martone '18 Christopher Adams '19 Matt Hersey '18 Taylor Eastman '20	Chuck Nystrom '19 Lilly Mathieu '19 Mikayla Mathieu '18 Shannon Macdonald '17
	BB&N - Buckingham Browne and Nichols	Knights	Lidia Goldberg '18 Max Gudwin '17 Trevor Donovan '18	Lydia Austin '19 Robert Brower '18 Frankie Doyle '18
	Moses Brown School	Quakers	Adrian Van Der Wal '17 Alexander Runci '19 Colin Moffet '17 Henry Lee '20	Hannah Kinder '17 Skyler Sullivan '18 Grace Sawicki '19 Niku Angier '19
	Wellesley High School	Raiders	Chase Ireland '18 Hailey Feinzig '18 Owen Ward '18	Emily Lo '20 Elizabeth Harrington '18 Thomas Gartley '18 Eleanor Bennett '17 Maia Grissino '19 Margaret Benson '19