Barnstable HS '18
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.91 (fleet 1.47) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 11–11 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2018 | 2 | 9–6 | — |
| Spring 2017 | 2 | 2–5 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (22 matches) the record is 11–11 against 10.8 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+0.2). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 3 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2018-05-19 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.14 | 0.69 | 4–6 | 4.8 | −0.45 | 0.2 | 80% |
| 2018-04-07 | Clipper Challenge | skipper | 0.91 | 3.91 | 5–0 | 3.7 | ≥+3.00 | 2.0 | 21% |
| 2017-05-20 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 0.87 | -2.13 | 0–3 | 0.3 | ≤−3.00 | 0.4 | >99% |
| 2017-04-08 | Falmouth 6X Team Race | skipper | 0.69 | 0.58 | 2–2 | 2.0 | −0.11 | 0.0 | 84% |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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