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NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Tabor

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 24 31 55
2 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 18 40 58
3 Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Spartans 44 23 67
4 Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 51 32 83
5 Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 74 46 120
6 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 73 60 133
7 Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 83 54 137
8 Notre Dame Academy Notre Dame Academy NDA Varsity 66 89 155
9 Manchester/Essex RHS Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets 86 75 161
10 Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 44 130 174
11 Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars 130 130 260
12 East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers 130 130 260
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 2 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 1 18 Lulu Russell '17
Kat Mitchell '17
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 1 1 1 3 4 4 2 3 1 4 24 Morgan Sailer '18 [1-10]
Victoria Boatwright '17 [1-6]
Ellie Williams '18 [7-10]
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Spartans 3 2 4 4 7 2 3 DSQ 3 3 44 Victoria Pajak '17
Elizabeth Lonergan '16
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons 7 5 5 1 3 5 4 4 4 6 44 Emma Montgomery '18
Olivia Johnson '17
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders OCS 3 2 5 2 3 6 2 OCS 2 51 Annie Spence '16 [1-10]
Lilly Mathieu '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Shannon Macdonald '17 [5-8]
Notre Dame Academy Notre Dame Academy NDA Varsity 5 8 7 6 5 7 7 9 7 5 66 Elizabeth Bell '16
Rosie Holland '18
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 6 9 8 7 6 10 9 5 5 8 73 Jenna Weiner '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Catherine Zhu '18 [3-4, 7-10]
Catherine Zhu '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Jenna Weiner '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Megan Kelly '18 [9-10]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs OCS 6 6 8 9 6 5 6 8 7 74 Clementine Furber '17
Alice Kenny '18
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 4 7 10 9 8 8 10 8 9 10 83 Emily Wang '17 [1-8]
Emily Rader '19 [9-10]
Marlee Griffin '18 [1-8]
Mack Kiesman '19 [9-10]
Manchester/Essex RHS Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets 8 10 9 10 10 9 8 7 6 9 86 Hailey Wolfe '19 [1-4]
Laura Hannafin '18 [5-10]
Lena Brzezinski '19 [1-4]
Anika Martz '18 [5-10]
Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 130 No Show
No Show
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 130 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Spartans 1 1 2 3 2 7 1 3 1 2 23 Madeline Pope '17
Arianna Smaldone '16
St. George's School St. George's School Dragons 2 2 6 2 4 1 2 7 4 1 31 Caroline Benson '19 [1-10]
Elise Baker '17 [1-4, 9-10]
Olivia Gonzalez '17 [5-8]
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Raiders 4 5 1 4 1 4 5 1 3 4 32 Caroline Martone '18 [1-10]
Mikayla Mathieu '18 [1-4, 9-10]
Liz Silva '16 [5-8]
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Seawolves 3 3 3 1 6 5 6 4 6 3 40 Blair Lalor '18 [1-6, 9-10]
Ella Withington '18 [7-8]
Reagan Eyler '17 [1-4]
Stephanie Zou '16 [5-6]
Blair Lalor '18 [7-8]
Julia Jeffries '18 [9-10]
Portland High School Portland High School Bulldogs 6 6 7 8 3 3 4 2 2 5 46 Annabelle Wieser '17
Elizabeth Thompson '18
Wayland High School Wayland High School Warriors 5 4 4 7 5 2 9 5 5 8 54 Sarah Raines '17
Lucy Poole '18
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Raider 7 7 5 6 7 6 3 6 7 6 60 Elizabeth Harrington '18 [1-10]
Megan Kelly '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Serelle Carr '19 [3-4, 7-10]
Manchester/Essex RHS Manchester/Essex RHS Hornets 8 8 8 5 8 8 7 8 8 7 75 Micaela Coonley '18
Nina Williamms '18
Notre Dame Academy Notre Dame Academy NDA Varsity 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 89 Caroline Buckley '19
Abigail Frasier '20
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Falcons DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 130 No Show
No Show
Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 130 No Show
No Show
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School Avengers DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 130 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.060+0.06
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (10 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Barnstable HSBarnstable HS Raiders1133557799
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Spartans22121210108866
Choate Rosemary HallChoate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars335577991111
East Greenwich High SchoolEast Greenwich High School Avengers44221212101088
Manchester/Essex RHSManchester/Essex RHS Hornets557799111111
Newton Country Day SchoolNewton Country Day School Falcons66442212121010
Notre Dame AcademyNotre Dame Academy NDA Varsity779911111133
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs886644221212
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons991111113355
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves101088664422
Wayland High SchoolWayland High School Warriors111111335577
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Raider12121010886644

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Barnstable HSBarnstable HS Raiders224466881010
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Spartans111111997755
Choate Rosemary HallChoate Rosemary Hall Wild Boars44668810101212
East Greenwich High SchoolEast Greenwich High School Avengers331111119977
Manchester/Essex RHSManchester/Essex RHS Hornets66881010121222
Newton Country Day SchoolNewton Country Day School Falcons553311111199
Notre Dame AcademyNotre Dame Academy NDA Varsity88101012122244
Portland High SchoolPortland High School Bulldogs775533111111
St. George's SchoolSt. George's School Dragons10101212224466
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Seawolves9977553311
Wayland High SchoolWayland High School Warriors121222446688
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Raider111199775533
School / Team SkipperCrew
Barnstable HS Barnstable HS Annie Spence '16 [1-10] Lilly Mathieu '19 [1-4, 9-10]
Shannon Macdonald '17 [5-8]
Raiders Caroline Martone '18 [1-10] Mikayla Mathieu '18 [1-4, 9-10]
Liz Silva '16 [5-8]
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Victoria Pajak '17 Elizabeth Lonergan '16
Spartans Madeline Pope '17 Arianna Smaldone '16
Choate Rosemary Hall Choate Rosemary Hall No Show No Show
Wild Boars No Show No Show
East Greenwich High School East Greenwich High School No Show No Show
Avengers No Show No Show
Manchester/Essex RHS Manchester/Essex RHS Hailey Wolfe '19 [1-4]
Laura Hannafin '18 [5-10]		 Lena Brzezinski '19 [1-4]
Anika Martz '18 [5-10]
Hornets Micaela Coonley '18 Nina Williamms '18
Newton Country Day School Newton Country Day School Emma Montgomery '18 Olivia Johnson '17
Falcons No Show No Show
Notre Dame Academy Notre Dame Academy Elizabeth Bell '16 Rosie Holland '18
NDA Varsity Caroline Buckley '19 Abigail Frasier '20
Portland High School Portland High School Clementine Furber '17 Alice Kenny '18
Bulldogs Annabelle Wieser '17 Elizabeth Thompson '18
St. George's School St. George's School Morgan Sailer '18 [1-10] Victoria Boatwright '17 [1-6]
Ellie Williams '18 [7-10]
Dragons Caroline Benson '19 [1-10] Elise Baker '17 [1-4, 9-10]
Olivia Gonzalez '17 [5-8]
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Lulu Russell '17 Kat Mitchell '17
Seawolves Blair Lalor '18 [1-6, 9-10]
Ella Withington '18 [7-8]		 Reagan Eyler '17 [1-4]
Stephanie Zou '16 [5-6]
Blair Lalor '18 [7-8]
Julia Jeffries '18 [9-10]
Wayland High School Wayland High School Emily Wang '17 [1-8]
Emily Rader '19 [9-10]		 Marlee Griffin '18 [1-8]
Mack Kiesman '19 [9-10]
Warriors Sarah Raines '17 Lucy Poole '18
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Jenna Weiner '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Catherine Zhu '18 [3-4, 7-10]		 Catherine Zhu '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Jenna Weiner '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Megan Kelly '18 [9-10]
Raider Elizabeth Harrington '18 [1-10] Megan Kelly '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Serelle Carr '19 [3-4, 7-10]

Conditions — 04/17/2016 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 51%  ·  Pressure 1028.8 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 56°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 45°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
8.1 kn
avg  ·  max 10.1 kn
Gusts to 21.8 kn
From NNE (32°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity51% Pressure1028.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tabor Academy: a typical day (+0.01)
Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.
Fleet adjustment +0.15 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.15
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.24 ± 0.13)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tabor Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Tabor Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →