Bishop Stang High '17
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.57 (fleet 2.54) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | +0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 10–18 (36%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 10–18 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 10–18 against 9.0 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.0). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 1 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | National Invitational Tournament | skipper | 1.37 | 2.26 | 6–8 | 4.0 | +0.89 | 1.0 | 18% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.06 | 0.63 | 4–10 | 5.0 | −0.44 | 0.2 | 80% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2017 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | B | 9 | 3.3 | 2.09 |
| NESSA Women's Champs (Herreshoff) | Skipper | A | 10 | 7.2 | 1.05 |
| NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Tabor | Skipper | B | 6 | 3.0 | 1.04 |
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | A | 7 | 9.6 | -0.40 |
| NESSA Women's Championship (R Herreshoff Trophy) | Skipper | A | 8 | 9.6 | 0.11 |
| NESSA Herreshoff Qualifier - Tabor | Skipper | A | 9 | 3.4 | 0.96 |
| National Invitational Tournament | Skipper | TR | 14 | 43% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | A | 7 | 6.3 | 0.19 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Women's Champs (Herreshoff) | Skipper | B | 13 | 8.5 | 0.40 |
| Herreshoff Qualifier - MMA #2 | Crew | A, B | 14 | 5.6 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Victoria Pajak |  Northeastern University |
'21 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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