Arnold Brown Regatta

HostSail MV
Date09/20/2015
TypeIn-District
BoatC420
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	21	28	49
2	North Kingstown High School	Skippers	25	43	68
3	Xavier High School	Falcons	27	48	75
4	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	37	39	76
5	Duxbury High School	Varsity	50	34	84
6	Marblehead High School	Magician	53	33	86
7	Sharon High School	Varsity	42	48	90
8	Bishop Stang High	Spartans	57	40	97
9	Burlington High School	Seahorse	82	63	145
10	Dover Sherborn RHS	Varsity	77	70	147
11	Champlain VUHS	Varsity	71	87	158
12	Cheverus High School	Stags	79	91	170

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	4	3	3	2	1	2	2	4	21	Cooper Siepert '16 Patrick Miller '19
North Kingstown High School	Skippers	1	1	1	3	2	5	5	7	25	Delaney Bamford '16 [1-8] Ryan Soucy '18 [1-2, 5-6] Jaia Colongese '18 [3-4] Mikey O'Flaherty '17 [7-8]
Xavier High School	Falcons	6	2	4	4	3	6	1	1	27	Gordon Gurnell '17 Dan Mcginley '16
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	3	10	7	5	4	3	3	2	37	Mary Morano '17 [1-8] Coltrane Leport '18 [1-4] Lucas Dutton '16 [5-8]
Sharon High School	Varsity	5	5	8	6	5	4	6	3	42	Jack Eberhardt '17 Pauljack Solomon '16
Duxbury High School	Varsity	2	7	5	10	6	1	DSQ	BKD	50	Nathan Ikeda '17 [1-8] Caitlyn Sarles '16 [1-4] Griffin Brayer '16 [5-8]
Marblehead High School	Magician	9	4	6	7	10	8	4	5	53	Kyle Aikman '17 [1-4] Ryan Hamilton '19 [5-8] Katie Rodger '16 [1-4] Marika Van Dusen '16 [5-8]
Bishop Stang High	Spartans	OCS	9	2	1	7	7	7	11	57	Victoria Pajak '17 [1-8] Joseph Russo '18 [1-2] Arianna Smaldone '16 [3-4] Cece Schneider '16 [5-6] Olivia Dube '16 [7-8]
Champlain VUHS	Varsity	8	8	12	12	8	9	8	6	71	Erika Barth '16 Lindsea Hayes '18
Dover Sherborn RHS	Varsity	7	6	11	11	OCS	10	9	10	77	Sam Scatchard '16 [1-2, 5-8] Colin Mcgruer '16 [3-4] Colin Mcgruer '16 [1-2, 7-8] Brian Mitchell '18 [3-6]
Cheverus High School	Stags	10	12	9	9	9	11	11	8	79	Andrew Morrissette '17 Alex Drago '19
Burlington High School	Seahorse	11	11	10	8	11	12	10	9	82	Ben Hunt '16 Lucie-Rose Hladik '16

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	TOT	Sailors
Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	3	9	1	1	3	1	3	7	28	Greg Corsello '16 Tucker Wanzer '16
Marblehead High School	Magician	2	3	5	9	8	4	1	1	33	Islay Van Dusen '18 [1-8] Marika Van Dusen '16 [1-4] Garrett Mckinnon '17 [5-8]
Duxbury High School	Varsity	1	4	2	5	5	2	6	9	34	Piers Klein '18 [1-8] Gretchen Mccarthy '16 [1-4] Noel Prince '16 [5-8]
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Vineyarders	8	8	4	2	6	7	2	2	39	Zach Bresnik '16 [1-8] Elizabeth O'Brien '18 [1-4] Adam Bilodeau '16 [5-8]
Bishop Stang High	Spartans	7	1	8	6	1	5	4	8	40	Santiago Hirschmann '18 [1-2] Kevin Gallagher '17 [3-8] Julian Sudofsky '19 [1-2] Elizabeth Lonergan '16 [3-4] Owen Reuther '17 [5-6] Cece Schneider '16 [7-8]
North Kingstown High School	Skippers	6	2	9	4	7	3	9	3	43	Noah Simmons '16 [1-2, 5-6] Marina Barzaghi '17 [3-4, 7-8] Adeline Sutton '17 [1-2, 5-8] Caroline Bourgeois '18 [3-4]
Sharon High School	Varsity	5	10	6	3	2	8	8	6	48	Meghan Haviland '17 Colin Snow '18
Xavier High School	Falcons	10	5	3	8	4	6	7	5	48	Stewart Gurnell '19 Jon Reboul '17
Burlington High School	Seahorse	9	7	7	11	10	10	5	4	63	Schuyler Macdonald '16 Morgan Hazo '15
Dover Sherborn RHS	Varsity	4	6	10	12	9	9	10	10	70	Maddie Nystrom '17 [1-2, 5-8] Christopher Cone '18 [3-4] Jensine Philips '18 [1-4, 7-8] Christopher Cone '18 [5-6]
Champlain VUHS	Varsity	11	12	11	7	12	11	11	12	87	Katie Hayes '16 Teddy Turnau '17
Cheverus High School	Stags	12	11	12	10	11	12	12	11	91	Christian Lamontagne '17 Matthew Proia '16

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.090+0.09

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2015 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A
Bishop Stang High Spartans	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7
Burlington High School Seahorse	2	2	12	12	10	10	8	8
Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9
Champlain VUHS Varsity	4	4	2	2	12	12	10	10
Cheverus High School Stags	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11
Dover Sherborn RHS Varsity	6	6	4	4	2	2	12	12
Duxbury High School Varsity	7	7	9	9	11	11	1	1
Marblehead High School Magician	8	8	6	6	4	4	2	2
Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	9	9	11	11	1	1	3	3
North Kingstown High School Skippers	10	10	8	8	6	6	4	4
Sharon High School Varsity	11	11	1	1	3	3	5	5
Xavier High School Falcons	12	12	10	10	8	8	6	6

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B
Bishop Stang High Spartans	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8
Burlington High School Seahorse	1	1	11	11	9	9	7	7
Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10
Champlain VUHS Varsity	3	3	1	1	11	11	9	9
Cheverus High School Stags	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12
Dover Sherborn RHS Varsity	5	5	3	3	1	1	11	11
Duxbury High School Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12	2	2
Marblehead High School Magician	7	7	5	5	3	3	1	1
Marthas Vineyard RHS Vineyarders	10	10	12	12	2	2	4	4
North Kingstown High School Skippers	9	9	7	7	5	5	3	3
Sharon High School Varsity	12	12	2	2	4	4	6	6
Xavier High School Falcons	11	11	9	9	7	7	5	5

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Bishop Stang High	Victoria Pajak '17 [1-8]	Joseph Russo '18 [1-2] Arianna Smaldone '16 [3-4] Cece Schneider '16 [5-6] Olivia Dube '16 [7-8]
Spartans	Santiago Hirschmann '18 [1-2] Kevin Gallagher '17 [3-8]	Julian Sudofsky '19 [1-2] Elizabeth Lonergan '16 [3-4] Owen Reuther '17 [5-6] Cece Schneider '16 [7-8]
Burlington High School	Ben Hunt '16	Lucie-Rose Hladik '16
Seahorse	Schuyler Macdonald '16	Morgan Hazo '15
Cape Elizabeth High School	Cooper Siepert '16	Patrick Miller '19
Capers	Greg Corsello '16	Tucker Wanzer '16
Champlain VUHS	Erika Barth '16	Lindsea Hayes '18
Varsity	Katie Hayes '16	Teddy Turnau '17
Cheverus High School	Andrew Morrissette '17	Alex Drago '19
Stags	Christian Lamontagne '17	Matthew Proia '16
Dover Sherborn RHS	Sam Scatchard '16 [1-2, 5-8] Colin Mcgruer '16 [3-4]	Colin Mcgruer '16 [1-2, 7-8] Brian Mitchell '18 [3-6]
Varsity	Maddie Nystrom '17 [1-2, 5-8] Christopher Cone '18 [3-4]	Jensine Philips '18 [1-4, 7-8] Christopher Cone '18 [5-6]
Duxbury High School	Nathan Ikeda '17 [1-8]	Caitlyn Sarles '16 [1-4] Griffin Brayer '16 [5-8]
Varsity	Piers Klein '18 [1-8]	Gretchen Mccarthy '16 [1-4] Noel Prince '16 [5-8]
Marblehead High School	Kyle Aikman '17 [1-4] Ryan Hamilton '19 [5-8]	Katie Rodger '16 [1-4] Marika Van Dusen '16 [5-8]
Magician	Islay Van Dusen '18 [1-8]	Marika Van Dusen '16 [1-4] Garrett Mckinnon '17 [5-8]
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Mary Morano '17 [1-8]	Coltrane Leport '18 [1-4] Lucas Dutton '16 [5-8]
Vineyarders	Zach Bresnik '16 [1-8]	Elizabeth O'Brien '18 [1-4] Adam Bilodeau '16 [5-8]
North Kingstown High School	Delaney Bamford '16 [1-8]	Ryan Soucy '18 [1-2, 5-6] Jaia Colongese '18 [3-4] Mikey O'Flaherty '17 [7-8]
Skippers	Noah Simmons '16 [1-2, 5-6] Marina Barzaghi '17 [3-4, 7-8]	Adeline Sutton '17 [1-2, 5-8] Caroline Bourgeois '18 [3-4]
Sharon High School	Jack Eberhardt '17	Pauljack Solomon '16
Varsity	Meghan Haviland '17	Colin Snow '18
Xavier High School	Gordon Gurnell '17	Dan Mcginley '16
Falcons	Stewart Gurnell '19	Jon Reboul '17

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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Arnold Brown Regatta

Division A

Division B

From the notes