Marthas Vineyard RHS '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.07 (fleet 1.74) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–13 (7%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–13 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 1–13 against 7.5 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−6.5). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | skipper | 1.21 | -2.45 | 1–13 | 7.5 | −3.67 | 10.9 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Team Racing Tournament (Terk Trophy) | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.1 | 0.52 |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Great Oaks Qualifier | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.8 | 0.69 |
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | B | 8 | 4.9 | 1.29 |
| 2015 NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman Trophy) | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.3 | 0.53 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Connecticut State Championship | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.5 | 0.95 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman) | Skipper | A, B | 6 | 11.3 | -0.46 |
| Great Oaks Invitational Silver Rnd | Skipper | A | 3 | 6.0 | 1.68 |
| Great Oaks Invitational Red Fleet | Skipper | A | 2 | 10.0 | 0.74 |
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | A | 6 | 7.7 | 0.07 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
To have this profile removed, email quinnbrighton2005@gmail.com.
