Navigate

Arnold Brown Regatta

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 26 31 57
2 North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Varsity 27 32 59
3 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 1 22 50 72
4 Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Varsity 34 41 75
5 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 44 46 90
6 Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Varsity 63 32 95
7 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 2 62 39 101
8 Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Varsity 55 52 107
9 Interscholastic Sailing Association Interscholastic Sailing Association Unregistered ME Team 71 63 134
10 Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 73 69 142
11 Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 69 86 155
12 Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Varsity 79 86 165
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 1 4 1 2 3 1 3 6 2 22 Raz Sayre '15 [1-8]
Zana Van Rooyen '15 [1-4]
Maddy Moore '15 [5-8]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 3 4 5 1 7 1 2 3 26 Jan Kite-Powell '15
Sarah Caso '15
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Varsity 1 2 1 5 2 2 4 10 27 Dakota Northrup '15 [1-8]
Adeline Sutton '17 [1-2]
Aliza Gomez '16 [3-8]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Varsity 2 3 9 2 3 10 1 4 34 Peter Lynn '15
Marika Van Dusen '16
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 5 11 3 10 5 6 3 1 44 Cooper Siepert '16
William Corsello '17
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Varsity 9 6 6 4 10 5 9 6 55 No Show
No Show
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 2 10 10 7 6 4 9 5 11 62 Zach Bresnik '16 [1-6]
Margaret Woodruff '16 [7-8]
Emily Moore '17 [1-4]
Elizabeth O'Brien '18 [5-8]
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Varsity 7 12 4 12 9 4 7 8 63 Caroline Downey '15
Elizabeth Lonergan '16
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 6 7 10 7 12 7 11 9 69 Blaze Engelman '15
Matthew Proia '16
Interscholastic Sailing Association Interscholastic Sailing Association Unregistered ME Team 8 5 11 11 11 8 12 5 71 Caleb Niles '17
Seth Atwood '15
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 11 8 12 9 6 12 8 7 73 Charlie Maitland '15
Anna Rowland '18
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Varsity 12 9 8 8 8 11 10 DSQ 79 Carter Mitchell '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Mcgruer '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Charlotte Garland '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Eliza Rogers '15 [3-4, 7-8]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 4 1 2 2 4 5 6 7 31 Chris Colbeth '15
Gretchen Mccarthy '16
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Varsity 2 6 6 6 8 1 2 1 32 Kevin Gallagher '17
Preston Duclos '15
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Varsity 5 3 4 9 1 3 5 2 32 Marina Barzaghi '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Noah Simmons '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Mike O'Flaherty '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Adeline Sutton '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 2 7 8 5 5 2 2 7 3 39 Lucas Dutton '16 [1-2]
Mary Morano '17 [3-8]
Lila Sullivan '15 [1-2]
Lucas Dutton '16 [3-8]
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Varsity DSQ 5 1 4 3 8 3 4 41 Will Hundahl '15 [1-8]
Cashel Rice '15 [1-4]
Mark Himes '19 [5-8]
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 8 10 7 1 5 9 1 5 46 Greg Corsello '16
Tucker Wanzer '16
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 1 1 11 9 3 9 4 4 9 50 Charlie Morano '15
Ellie Reagan '15
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School Varsity 6 2 3 7 6 7 10 11 52 No Show
No Show
Interscholastic Sailing Association Interscholastic Sailing Association Unregistered ME Team 3 9 8 10 7 12 8 6 63 Gabrielle Nuki '16
Kelley Fruwer '17
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Varsity 9 7 12 8 10 6 9 8 69 Noah Allen '15 [1-8]
Grace Benoit '18 [1-4]
Katie Hayes '16 [5-8]
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Varsity 10 12 10 11 11 11 11 10 86 Andrew Morrissette '17
Nolan Bell '15
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Varsity DSQ 4 11 12 12 10 12 12 86 Maddie Nystrom '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Christopher Cone '18 [3-6]
Elizabeth Gooch '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Austin Gillespie '15 [3-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.120+0.12
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Interscholastic Sailing AssociationInterscholastic Sailing Association Unregistered ME Team7788991010
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Varsity11223344
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Varsity221112121111
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity33445566
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity44332211
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS Varsity55667788
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity66554433
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Varsity88776655
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 199101011111212
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 21010998877
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Varsity111112121122
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Varsity12121111101099

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Interscholastic Sailing AssociationInterscholastic Sailing Association Unregistered ME Team11223344
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Varsity7788991010
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Varsity88776655
Champlain VUHSChamplain VUHS Varsity99101011111212
Cheverus High SchoolCheverus High School Varsity1010998877
Dover Sherborn RHSDover Sherborn RHS Varsity111112121122
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity12121111101099
Marblehead High SchoolMarblehead High School Varsity221112121111
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 133445566
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Islanders 244332211
North Kingstown High SchoolNorth Kingstown High School Varsity55667788
Wellesley High SchoolWellesley High School Varsity66554433
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Caroline Downey '15 Elizabeth Lonergan '16
Varsity Kevin Gallagher '17 Preston Duclos '15
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Cooper Siepert '16 William Corsello '17
Varsity Greg Corsello '16 Tucker Wanzer '16
Champlain VUHS Champlain VUHS Charlie Maitland '15 Anna Rowland '18
Varsity Noah Allen '15 [1-8] Grace Benoit '18 [1-4]
Katie Hayes '16 [5-8]
Cheverus High School Cheverus High School Blaze Engelman '15 Matthew Proia '16
Varsity Andrew Morrissette '17 Nolan Bell '15
Dover Sherborn RHS Dover Sherborn RHS Carter Mitchell '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Colin Mcgruer '16 [3-4, 7-8]		 Charlotte Garland '15 [1-2, 5-6]
Eliza Rogers '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Varsity Maddie Nystrom '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Christopher Cone '18 [3-6]		 Elizabeth Gooch '17 [1-2, 7-8]
Austin Gillespie '15 [3-6]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Jan Kite-Powell '15 Sarah Caso '15
Varsity Chris Colbeth '15 Gretchen Mccarthy '16
Interscholastic Sailing Association Interscholastic Sailing Association Caleb Niles '17 Seth Atwood '15
Unregistered ME Team Gabrielle Nuki '16 Kelley Fruwer '17
Marblehead High School Marblehead High School Peter Lynn '15 Marika Van Dusen '16
Varsity Will Hundahl '15 [1-8] Cashel Rice '15 [1-4]
Mark Himes '19 [5-8]
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Raz Sayre '15 [1-8] Zana Van Rooyen '15 [1-4]
Maddy Moore '15 [5-8]
Islanders 1 Charlie Morano '15 Ellie Reagan '15
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Zach Bresnik '16 [1-6]
Margaret Woodruff '16 [7-8]		 Emily Moore '17 [1-4]
Elizabeth O'Brien '18 [5-8]
Islanders 2 Lucas Dutton '16 [1-2]
Mary Morano '17 [3-8]		 Lila Sullivan '15 [1-2]
Lucas Dutton '16 [3-8]
North Kingstown High School North Kingstown High School Dakota Northrup '15 [1-8] Adeline Sutton '17 [1-2]
Aliza Gomez '16 [3-8]
Varsity Marina Barzaghi '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Noah Simmons '16 [3-4, 7-8]		 Mike O'Flaherty '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Adeline Sutton '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Wellesley High School Wellesley High School No Show No Show
Varsity No Show No Show

Conditions — 09/20/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 66%  ·  Pressure 1025.2 hPa

Temperature

63°F
↑ 66°F   ↓ 58°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
9.4 kn
avg  ·  max 12.3 kn
Gusts to 22.5 kn
From S (178°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover14% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity66% Pressure1025.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: S 12 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Marthas Vineyard Reg: a favourites’ day (+0.04)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.07 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.04 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.04 means a rating gap counts about 4% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Marthas Vineyard Reg by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Marthas Vineyard Reg, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →