Duxbury High School '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.08 (fleet 3.36) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 0–14 (0%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 0–14 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (14 matches) the record is 0–14 against 3.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−3.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 5 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | skipper | 1.75 | -1.25 | 0–14 | 3.3 | ≤−3.00 | 5.1 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marblehead | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.4 | 1.50 |
| NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 0% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | A | 7 | 7.1 | 1.70 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| Xavier Fall Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 2.3 | 1.72 |
| Y-Town Sail-Down | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.0 | 1.17 |
| NESSA Fall Funfest (Gleekman) | Skipper | A | 2 | 4.5 | 1.75 |
| Arnold Brown Regatta | Skipper | A | 8 | 3.2 | 2.21 |
| 2014 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.6 | 0.74 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier at Tabor | Skipper | A | 4 | 6.5 | 0.59 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Jan Kite-Powell |  University of Vermont |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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