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Xavier Fall Invite

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 2 14 16 30
2 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 1 12 20 32
3 Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 22 23 45
4 Stonington High School Stonington High School Varsity 1 34 14 48
5 Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 1 15 40 55
6 Stonington High School Stonington High School Varsity 2 43 22 65
7 Interscholastic Sailing Association Interscholastic Sailing Association Varsity 30 37 67
8 Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 2 46 44 90
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 1 2 3 1 2 2 2 12 Chris Colbeth '15
Meg Sarles '15
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 2 3 1 3 1 1 5 14 Jan Kite-Powell '15
Griffin Lorimer '18
Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 1 1 2 4 4 3 1 15 Gordon Gurnell '17
Graham Taylor '15
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 5 4 2 3 5 3 22 Cooper Siepert '16
William Corsello '17
Interscholastic Sailing Association Interscholastic Sailing Association Varsity 4 5 5 6 4 6 30 Sam Weiser '15
Beth Carroll '15
Stonington High School Stonington High School Varsity 1 6 7 6 5 6 4 34 C Boxton '15
Kate Green '15
Stonington High School Stonington High School Varsity 2 7 6 8 7 7 8 43 Eric Gimple '15
A Wood '16
Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 2 8 8 7 8 8 7 46 Brian Tiernan '17 [1-6]
Drew Pye '16 [1-3]
Chase Arnold '17 [4-6]
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 TOT Sailors
Stonington High School Stonington High School Varsity 1 4 3 1 2 1 3 14 L Spaundling '17
Gabby Heughins '17
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 2 2 1 2 4 3 4 16 Nathan Ikeda '17
Ian Rappe '18
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 1 1 4 4 5 4 2 20 Sarah Caso '15
Meg Sarles '15
Stonington High School Stonington High School Varsity 2 5 2 5 3 2 5 22 L Gimple '17 [1-6]
R Anessly '18 [1-3]
A Souenberger '18 [4-6]
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Varsity 3 7 3 1 8 1 23 Greg Corsello '16
Tucker Wanzer '16
Interscholastic Sailing Association Interscholastic Sailing Association Varsity 8 6 6 6 5 6 37 Joey Chomyn '19 [1-3]
Peter Hyde '16 [4-6]
Annabelle Weiger '17 [1-3]
Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 1 6 5 7 8 6 8 40 Jackson Xenelis '15 [1-6]
Dan Mcginley '17 [1-3]
Mitchell Nelson '18 [4-6]
Xavier High School Xavier High School Falcons 2 7 8 8 7 7 7 44 Kristian Dilillo '15 [1-6]
Connor Marszalek '15 [1-3]
Austin Guasp '16 [4-6]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.100+0.10
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A
Interscholastic Sailing AssociationInterscholastic Sailing Association Varsity557799
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Varsity113355
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity 1335577
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity 244221010
Stonington High SchoolStonington High School Varsity 1664422
Stonington High SchoolStonington High School Varsity 2779911
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Falcons 1886644
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Falcons 2991133

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B
Interscholastic Sailing AssociationInterscholastic Sailing Association Varsity66881010
Cape Elizabeth High SchoolCape Elizabeth High School Varsity224466
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity 1446688
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity 2331199
Stonington High SchoolStonington High School Varsity 1553311
Stonington High SchoolStonington High School Varsity 288101022
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Falcons 1775533
Xavier High SchoolXavier High School Falcons 210102244
School / Team SkipperCrew
Cape Elizabeth High School Cape Elizabeth High School Cooper Siepert '16 William Corsello '17
Varsity Greg Corsello '16 Tucker Wanzer '16
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Chris Colbeth '15 Meg Sarles '15
Varsity 1 Sarah Caso '15 Meg Sarles '15
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Jan Kite-Powell '15 Griffin Lorimer '18
Varsity 2 Nathan Ikeda '17 Ian Rappe '18
Interscholastic Sailing Association Interscholastic Sailing Association Sam Weiser '15 Beth Carroll '15
Varsity Joey Chomyn '19 [1-3]
Peter Hyde '16 [4-6]		 Annabelle Weiger '17 [1-3]
Stonington High School Stonington High School C Boxton '15 Kate Green '15
Varsity 1 L Spaundling '17 Gabby Heughins '17
Stonington High School Stonington High School Eric Gimple '15 A Wood '16
Varsity 2 L Gimple '17 [1-6] R Anessly '18 [1-3]
A Souenberger '18 [4-6]
Xavier High School Xavier High School Gordon Gurnell '17 Graham Taylor '15
Falcons 1 Jackson Xenelis '15 [1-6] Dan Mcginley '17 [1-3]
Mitchell Nelson '18 [4-6]
Xavier High School Xavier High School Brian Tiernan '17 [1-6] Drew Pye '16 [1-3]
Chase Arnold '17 [4-6]
Falcons 2 Kristian Dilillo '15 [1-6] Connor Marszalek '15 [1-3]
Austin Guasp '16 [4-6]

Conditions — 09/14/2014 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky
Humidity 55%  ·  Pressure 1023.2 hPa

Temperature

62°F
↑ 69°F   ↓ 51°F
Feels like 60°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
4.6 kn
avg  ·  max 7.7 kn
Gusts to 20.4 kn
From NW (324°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover40% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity55% Pressure1023.2 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 9 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Xavier: an underdogs’ day (−0.03)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.14 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.11
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.06 ± 0.19)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.03 means a rating gap counts about 2% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Xavier by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Xavier, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →