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O'Day Qualifier at Tabor

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Varsity 26 40 66
2 Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 35 41 76
3 Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Varsity 39 38 77
4 Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 38 40 78
5 Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 69 41 110
6 Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 55 56 111
7 Nauset Regional High School Nauset Regional High School Varsity 63 52 115
8 Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Varsity 55 72 127
9 Boston College High School Boston College High School Varsity 87 72 159
10 St. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's 83 98 181
11 Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue 120 120 240
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Varsity 2 5 7 1 2 1 2 1 2 3 26 Logan Russell '15 [1-10]
Kendolyn Roe '14 [1-6]
Sarah Noyes '15 [7-10]
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 6 1 2 3 6 2 3 8 3 1 35 Carter Pemberton '16 [1-10]
John Wetzel '16 [1-8]
Lily Mcgrath '14 [9-10]
Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 3 6 1 5 3 5 1 4 4 6 38 Vincent Miao '14
Madhura Shah '15
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Varsity 1 2 3 7 1 6 4 7 1 7 39 Rasmus Sayre '15 [1-10]
Anna Flahrety '15 [1-8]
Adam Bilodeau '16 [9-10]
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 4 8 5 4 7 8 7 2 8 2 55 Nat Estes '15
Jack Kenney '15
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Varsity 7 3 9 9 5 3 5 5 5 4 55 Preston Duclan '15 [1-10]
Maura Lonergan '15 [1-6]
Chloe Kelleher '14 [7-8]
Elizabeth Lonergan '16 [9-10]
Nauset Regional High School Nauset Regional High School Varsity 8 7 8 2 4 7 10 6 6 5 63 Rob Whittaker (C) '14
Adrian Singer '15
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 9 4 4 8 8 10 6 3 7 10 69 Chris Colbeth '15 [1-6]
Jan Kite-Powell '15 [7-10]
Meg Sarles '15 [1-2]
Sarah Caso '15 [3-10]
St. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's 5 9 10 10 10 4 8 9 10 8 83 Andrew Warner '14
Alex Pappas '14
Boston College High School Boston College High School Varsity 10 10 6 6 9 9 9 10 9 9 87 Bell Jed '18
Connor O'Neill '15
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 120 No Show
No Show
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 R9 R10 TOT Sailors
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Varsity 2 3 2 4 3 6 7 4 4 3 38 Charlie Morano '15
Ellie Reagan '15
Sharon High School Sharon High School Varsity 3 4 4 5 4 2 1 1 7 9 40 Wilson Gregory '14
Geofrey Commons '14
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Varsity 5 1 3 7 5 3 4 3 1 8 40 India Johnstone '14 [1-8]
Parker Loftus '16 [9-10]
Meaghan Macrae '14 [1-8]
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Seahawks 1 9 5 1 1 5 6 5 3 5 41 Elizabeth Pemberton '14
Morgan Farber '16
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Varsity 8 2 6 3 2 9 3 2 5 1 41 Piers Klein '18
Sarah Caso '15
Nauset Regional High School Nauset Regional High School Varsity 4 6 8 8 8 1 2 7 2 6 52 Alexander Calderwood (C) '14
Sean Mahoney '14
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Indians 6 7 1 6 6 4 8 8 8 2 56 Nat Estes '15 [1-10]
Nat Estes '15 [1-4]
James Cassell '16 [5-10]
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Varsity 7 5 7 2 10 7 9 9 9 7 72 Madeline Pope '17 [1-6]
Ariana Smaldone '17 [7-8]
Maura Lonergan '15 [9-10]
Elizabeth Lonergan '16 [1-6]
Olivia Dube '16 [7-8]
Chloe Kelleher '14 [9-10]
Boston College High School Boston College High School Varsity 9 8 10 9 7 8 5 6 6 4 72 James Ruberti '14 [1-10]
Connor O'Neill '15 [1-6]
Graziano Nick '19 [7-10]
St. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's 10 10 9 10 9 10 10 10 10 10 98 Jay Daukas '14 [1-6]
John Flatley '15 [7-10]
Shawn Lynch '15 [1-8]
Matthew Ouellette '14 [9-10]
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School Big Blue DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS DNS 120 No Show
No Show
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.070+0.07
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2014 (1 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A9A10A
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Varsity1122334455
Boston College High SchoolBoston College High School Varsity2233445566
Cape Cod AcademyCape Cod Academy Seahawks3344556677
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians4455667788
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity5566778899
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Varsity667788991010
Nauset Regional High SchoolNauset Regional High School Varsity77889910101111
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Varsity88991010111111
St. Sebastian's SchoolSt. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's99101011111122
Swampscott High SchoolSwampscott High School Big Blue10101111112233
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Varsity111111223344

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B9B10B
Bishop Stang HighBishop Stang High Varsity1122334455
Boston College High SchoolBoston College High School Varsity2233445566
Cape Cod AcademyCape Cod Academy Seahawks3344556677
Dartmouth High SchoolDartmouth High School Indians4455667788
Duxbury High SchoolDuxbury High School Varsity5566778899
Marthas Vineyard RHSMarthas Vineyard RHS Varsity667788991010
Nauset Regional High SchoolNauset Regional High School Varsity77889910101111
Sharon High SchoolSharon High School Varsity88991010111111
St. Sebastian's SchoolSt. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's99101011111122
Swampscott High SchoolSwampscott High School Big Blue10101111112233
Tabor AcademyTabor Academy Varsity111111223344
School / Team SkipperCrew
Bishop Stang High Bishop Stang High Preston Duclan '15 [1-10] Maura Lonergan '15 [1-6]
Chloe Kelleher '14 [7-8]
Elizabeth Lonergan '16 [9-10]
Varsity Madeline Pope '17 [1-6]
Ariana Smaldone '17 [7-8]
Maura Lonergan '15 [9-10]		 Elizabeth Lonergan '16 [1-6]
Olivia Dube '16 [7-8]
Chloe Kelleher '14 [9-10]
Boston College High School Boston College High School Bell Jed '18 Connor O'Neill '15
Varsity James Ruberti '14 [1-10] Connor O'Neill '15 [1-6]
Graziano Nick '19 [7-10]
Cape Cod Academy Cape Cod Academy Carter Pemberton '16 [1-10] John Wetzel '16 [1-8]
Lily Mcgrath '14 [9-10]
Seahawks Elizabeth Pemberton '14 Morgan Farber '16
Dartmouth High School Dartmouth High School Nat Estes '15 Jack Kenney '15
Indians Nat Estes '15 [1-10] Nat Estes '15 [1-4]
James Cassell '16 [5-10]
Duxbury High School Duxbury High School Chris Colbeth '15 [1-6]
Jan Kite-Powell '15 [7-10]		 Meg Sarles '15 [1-2]
Sarah Caso '15 [3-10]
Varsity Piers Klein '18 Sarah Caso '15
Marthas Vineyard RHS Marthas Vineyard RHS Rasmus Sayre '15 [1-10] Anna Flahrety '15 [1-8]
Adam Bilodeau '16 [9-10]
Varsity Charlie Morano '15 Ellie Reagan '15
Nauset Regional High School Nauset Regional High School Rob Whittaker (C) '14 Adrian Singer '15
Varsity Alexander Calderwood (C) '14 Sean Mahoney '14
Sharon High School Sharon High School Vincent Miao '14 Madhura Shah '15
Varsity Wilson Gregory '14 Geofrey Commons '14
St. Sebastian's School St. Sebastian's School Andrew Warner '14 Alex Pappas '14
St. Sebastian's Jay Daukas '14 [1-6]
John Flatley '15 [7-10]		 Shawn Lynch '15 [1-8]
Matthew Ouellette '14 [9-10]
Swampscott High School Swampscott High School No Show No Show
Big Blue No Show No Show
Tabor Academy Tabor Academy Logan Russell '15 [1-10] Kendolyn Roe '14 [1-6]
Sarah Noyes '15 [7-10]
Varsity India Johnstone '14 [1-8]
Parker Loftus '16 [9-10]		 Meaghan Macrae '14 [1-8]

Conditions — 04/26/2014 (8am–6pm)

☁️Overcast
Humidity 89%  ·  Pressure 1009.0 hPa

Temperature

45°F
↑ 47°F   ↓ 44°F
Feels like 40°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
6.5 kn
avg  ·  max 8.0 kn
Gusts to 17.5 kn
From ENE (74°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover100% Sunshine0.0 hrs Humidity89% Pressure1009.0 hPa Rain0.31 in

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: E 6 kn (scorer’s report)
In this breeze at Tabor Academy: a strongly underdogs’ day (−0.14)
Expect upsets: lower-rated teams have a better chance of beating the seeds, and the fleet bunches up.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast −0.03
Actual: about typical, within noise (−0.06 ± 0.14)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.14 means a rating gap counts about 12% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Tabor Academy by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 6 labelled days at Tabor Academy, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →