Tabor Academy '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2.56 (fleet 4.15) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 35–20 (64%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 2 | 20–11 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 2 | 15–9 | — |
Rating before each regatta driven (solid; dots green when the boat won 60% or more of its matches there, red under 40%) and what the fleet rating alone would give (dashed). The gap is the team race offset as it stood at the time. Hover a dot for the regatta; click to open it.
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 4 graded regattas (55 matches) the record is 35–20 against 33.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (+1.7). 1 regatta clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 2 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 3 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-28 | ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | skipper | 2.84 | 2.34 | 5–6 | 5.9 | −0.50 | 0.2 | 82% |
| 2016-05-21 | NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | skipper | 2.77 | 3.72 | 15–5 | 12.5 | +0.95 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 2015-05-23 | NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | skipper | 2.28 | 3.23 | 9–3 | 7.3 | +0.95 | 0.9 | 22% |
| 2015-05-16 | NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | skipper | 2.69 | 1.84 | 6–6 | 7.7 | −0.85 | 0.8 | 92% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | A | 8 | 2.2 | 2.92 |
| NESSA Fleet Racing Championship (O'Day Trophy) | Skipper | A | 7 | 5.0 | 1.82 |
| NESSA Team Racing Championship (Mark Trophy) | Skipper | TR | 20 | 75% | — |
| Mallory National Championship | Skipper | A | 12 | 11.4 | 0.60 |
| ISSA Baker Trophy - Team Race Nationals | Skipper | TR | 11 | 46% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Lawrence A. White Trophy | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.4 | 1.84 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier - Marion, MA | Skipper | B | 8 | 1.8 | 3.75 |
| NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | Skipper | TR | 14 | 79% | — |
| NESSA Teams - Mark Trophy | Skipper | TR | 14 | 50% | — |
| NESSA Fleets -O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 7 | 3.7 | 3.03 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| O'Day Qualifier at Tabor | Skipper | B | 2 | 4.5 | 1.55 |
| NESSA Championship / O'Day Trophy | Skipper | B | 1 | 13.0 | — |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Parker Loftus |  U. S. Naval Academy |
'20 |
| ICSA | Parker Loftus |  College of Charleston |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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