NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy"

HostRochester Yacht Club
Date05/23/2015
TypeNational Invitational
BoatC420
ScoringTeam

#	School	Team	Rec.
1	Milton Academy	Mustangs	11–3
2	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	11–3
3	Tabor Academy	Seawolves	11–3
4	Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	7–7
5	North Kingstown High School	Skippers	6–8
6	Broadneck High School	Bruins	4–10
7	Mercy High School	Varsity	4–10
8	New Trier HS	Trevian	2–12

Pre-event forecast

Fitted on the 1,241 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-23, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 25 of 38 matches (66%) with a log-loss of 0.662 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went poorly for the forecast. Orderliness −0.86 ± 0.48: an upset-heavy event, more orderly than 9% of high school team race events (temperature of the forecast log-odds that best fits the results, relative to the league average; nothing about the field, venue or wind predicts it, see the Weather tab). vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.

Place	School	Pred.	Strength	Boats (skipper / crew, boat value)	Pred. win %	Record	vs forecast
1	Milton Academy Mustangs	1	6.97 school −0.26	Nicholas Giovanni / Emily Grace 2.44 Luke Monnich / Jamie Fox 2.19 Henry Burnes / Isabelle Alex 2.37	66%	9–3 (75%)	+1.0
2	Marthas Vineyard RHS Islanders	5	6.35 school +0.28	Raz Sayre / Adam Bilodeau 2.41 Eli Hanschka / Mary Morano 1.72 Charlie Morano / Ellie Reagan 1.77 8–2 Miles Jordi / Russell Shapiro 2–0	54%	10–2 (83%)	+3.5
3	Tabor Academy Seawolves	2	6.69 school −0.05	Tucker Hersam / Stephanie Zou 1.78 Parker Loftus / Nathalie Cavallo 2.28 Chase Cooper / Lulu Russell 2.12	60%	9–3 (75%)	+1.8
4	Latin School of Chicago Varsity	3	6.79 school +0.32	Mark Davies / Will Davies 2.77 Zach Schenkman / Emma Hyer 1.92 Allie Cahn / Leah Peluchiwski 1.74	58%	4–6 (40%)	−1.8
5	North Kingstown High School Skippers	6	5.46 school −0.14	Marina Barzaghi / Adeline Sutton Mikey O'Flaherty / Evan Bowen Aidan Naughton / Ryan Soucy	30%	3–7 (30%)	+0.0
7	Mercy High School Varsity	7	3.73 school −0.31	John Robert Lawless / Bridgit Patterson 1.60 Peter Mcmillan / Hannah Gilges 1.27 Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom / Sophie Aureli	10%	2–6 (25%)	+1.2
8	New Trier HS Trevian	4	6.45 school +0.18	Bailey Cornog / Katie Lowenbaum 1.90 Colin Richards / Sarah Wright 2.40 Christian Koules / Caroline O'Malley 1.94 1–9 Brendan Kaplan / Caroline O'Malley 0–2	57%	1–11 (8%)	−5.8

Surprisal: who beat their rating

Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.

Place	School	Strength	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
2	Marthas Vineyard RHS	6.35	8.38	10–2	6.5	+2.03	3.7	3%
7	Mercy High School	3.73	5.16	2–6	0.8	+1.42	1.1	19%
3	Tabor Academy	6.69	7.64	9–3	7.3	+0.95	0.9	22%
1	Milton Academy	6.97	7.56	9–3	8.0	+0.59	0.3	37%
5	North Kingstown High School	5.46	5.47	3–7	3.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
4	Latin School of Chicago	6.79	5.83	4–6	5.8	−0.97	1.0	93%
8	New Trier HS	6.45	2.50	1–11	6.8	−3.95	10.5	>99%

By skipper

Skipper	School	Value	Perf.	Record	Exp. wins	Δ	Surprise (bits)	P(this good or better)
Raz Sayre	Marthas Vineyard RHS	2.41	4.43	10–2	6.5	+2.03	3.7	3%
Eli Hanschka	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.72	3.74	10–2	6.5	+2.03	3.7	3%
Charlie Morano	Marthas Vineyard RHS	1.77	3.60	8–2	5.2	+1.83	2.7	6%
John Robert Lawless	Mercy High School	1.60	3.02	2–6	0.8	+1.42	1.1	19%
Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom	Mercy High School	0.86	2.29	2–6	0.8	+1.42	1.1	19%
Chase Cooper	Tabor Academy	2.12	3.07	9–3	7.3	+0.95	0.9	22%
Nicholas Giovanni	Milton Academy	2.44	3.02	9–3	8.0	+0.59	0.3	37%
Mikey O'Flaherty	North Kingstown High School	1.44	1.45	3–7	3.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
Aidan Naughton	North Kingstown High School	1.76	1.78	3–7	3.0	+0.02	0.0	61%
Zach Schenkman	Latin School of Chicago	1.92	0.95	4–6	5.8	−0.97	1.0	93%
Allie Cahn	Latin School of Chicago	1.74	0.77	4–6	5.8	−0.97	1.0	93%
Christian Koules	New Trier HS	1.94	-1.75	1–9	5.5	−3.69	7.8	>99%
Bailey Cornog	New Trier HS	1.90	-2.04	1–11	6.8	−3.95	10.5	>99%

Match by match

Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).

Rd	#	Winner	Loser	P(winner)
1	1	Mercy High School	Milton Academy	7%	upset
1	2	Marthas Vineyard RHS	New Trier HS	45%	upset
1	3	Latin School of Chicago	North Kingstown High School	78%
1	5	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Mercy High School	89%
1	6	Milton Academy	Latin School of Chicago	51%
1	7	Tabor Academy	New Trier HS	44%	upset
1	9	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Latin School of Chicago	41%	upset
1	10	Tabor Academy	Mercy High School	89%
1	11	North Kingstown High School	Milton Academy	22%	upset
1	13	Tabor Academy	Latin School of Chicago	45%	upset
1	14	Marthas Vineyard RHS	North Kingstown High School	63%
1	15	Mercy High School	New Trier HS	11%	upset
1	17	Tabor Academy	North Kingstown High School	71%
1	18	Latin School of Chicago	New Trier HS	56%
1	19	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Milton Academy	40%	upset
1	21	North Kingstown High School	New Trier HS	35%	upset
1	22	Milton Academy	Tabor Academy	56%
1	25	Milton Academy	New Trier HS	60%
1	27	Tabor Academy	Marthas Vineyard RHS	56%
2	29	Milton Academy	Mercy High School	92%
2	30	Marthas Vineyard RHS	New Trier HS	49%	upset
2	31	Latin School of Chicago	North Kingstown High School	73%
2	33	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Mercy High School	89%
2	34	Milton Academy	Latin School of Chicago	54%
2	35	Tabor Academy	New Trier HS	56%
2	37	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Latin School of Chicago	44%	upset
2	38	Tabor Academy	Mercy High School	91%
2	39	Milton Academy	North Kingstown High School	76%
2	41	Tabor Academy	Latin School of Chicago	51%
2	42	Marthas Vineyard RHS	North Kingstown High School	62%
2	43	New Trier HS	Mercy High School	88%
2	45	Tabor Academy	North Kingstown High School	73%
2	46	Latin School of Chicago	New Trier HS	56%
2	47	Milton Academy	Marthas Vineyard RHS	61%
2	49	North Kingstown High School	New Trier HS	37%	upset
2	50	Milton Academy	Tabor Academy	53%
2	53	Milton Academy	New Trier HS	61%
2	55	Marthas Vineyard RHS	Tabor Academy	42%	upset

Filter by team:

#					Pos.
1	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Mustangs	3-5-6
2	Islanders	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
3	Varsity	1-3-4	def.	Skippers	2-5-6
4	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
5	Islanders	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
6	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
7	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
8	Bruins	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
9	Islanders	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
10	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
11	Skippers	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
12	Trevian	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
13	Seawolves	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
14	Islanders	1-3-4	def.	Skippers	2-5-6
15	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Trevian	1-5-6
16	Mustangs	1-3-4	def.	Bruins	2-5-6
17	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Skippers	3-5-6
18	Varsity	1-2-4	def.	Trevian	3-5-6
19	Islanders	1-2-6	def.	Mustangs	3-4-5
20	Varsity	2-3-4	def.	Bruins	1-5-6
21	Skippers	2-3-4	def.	Trevian	1-5-6
22	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Seawolves	3-5-6
23	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Varsity	3-4-5
24	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Islanders	1-5-6
25	Mustangs	1-2-5	def.	Trevian	3-4-6
26	Skippers	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
27	Seawolves	2-3-4	def.	Islanders	1-5-6
28	Varsity	2-3-5	def.	Bruins	1-4-6
29	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
30	Islanders	1-2-5	def.	Trevian	3-4-6
31	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Skippers	3-4-6
32	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
33	Islanders	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
34	Mustangs	1-3-4	def.	Varsity	2-5-6
35	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Trevian	4-5-6
36	Skippers	1-2-5	def.	Bruins	3-4-6
37	Islanders	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
38	Seawolves	1-2-4	def.	Varsity	3-5-6
39	Mustangs	1-2-4	def.	Skippers	3-5-6
40	Bruins	2-3-4	def.	Trevian	1-5-6
41	Seawolves	1-2-3	def.	Varsity	4-5-6
42	Islanders	1-2-6	def.	Skippers	3-4-5
43	Trevian	1-3-5	def.	Varsity	2-4-6
44	Mustangs	1-2-3	def.	Bruins	4-5-6
45	Seawolves	1-2-5	def.	Skippers	3-4-6
46	Varsity	1-2-6	def.	Trevian	3-4-5
47	Mustangs	2-3-4	def.	Islanders	1-5-6
48	Bruins	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
49	Skippers	1-2-3	def.	Trevian	4-5-6
50	Mustangs	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
51	Varsity	1-2-5	def.	Varsity	3-4-6
52	Islanders	1-2-6	def.	Bruins	3-4-5
53	Mustangs	2-3-4	def.	Trevian	1-5-6
54	Skippers	2-3-5	def.	Varsity	1-4-6
55	Islanders	1-2-6	def.	Seawolves	3-4-5
56	Varsity	2-3-5	def.	Bruins	1-4-6

School	Team	Skippers	Crew
Milton Academy	Mustangs	Henry Burnes '17 Luke Monnich '21 Nicholas Giovanni '15	Isabelle Alex '21 Jamie Fox '21 Emily Grace '16
Marthas Vineyard RHS	Islanders	Charlie Morano '15 Eli Hanschka '15 Miles Jordi '18 Raz Sayre '15	Ellie Reagan '15 Mary Morano '17 Russell Shapiro '15 Adam Bilodeau '16
Tabor Academy	Seawolves	Chase Cooper '17 Parker Loftus '16 Tucker Hersam '16	Lulu Russell '17 Nathalie Cavallo '16 Stephanie Zou '16
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	Allie Cahn '16 Mark Davies '16 Zach Schenkman '15	Leah Peluchiwski '16 Will Davies '18 Emma Hyer '18
North Kingstown High School	Skippers	Aidan Naughton '18 Marina Barzaghi '17 Mikey O'Flaherty '17	Ryan Soucy '18 Adeline Sutton '17 Evan Bowen '15
Mercy High School	Varsity	Gavin First Name Last Name Graduation Year Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Delete Row Bloom '17 John Robert Lawless '15 Peter Mcmillan '15	Sophie Aureli '18 Bridgit Patterson '18 Hannah Gilges '18
New Trier HS	Trevian	Bailey Cornog '15 Brendan Kaplan '15 Christian Koules '15 Colin Richards '15	Katie Lowenbaum '17 Caroline O'Malley '17 Sarah Wright '15

Conditions — 05/23/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 42% · Pressure 1029.5 hPa

Temperature

54°F

↑ 60°F ↓ 43°F

Feels like 50°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

4.5 kn

avg · max 5.3 kn

Gusts to 13.4 kn

From W (277°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity42% Pressure1029.5 hPa

What this breeze does at Rochester Yacht Club — from fleet racing

Breeze: W about 7 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)

In fleet races at Rochester Yacht Club in this breeze: a typical day (+0.02)

Nothing in this breeze favours either side in fleet racing here: results follow the ratings about as usual.

Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Rochester Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (only 1 labelled days at Rochester Yacht Club, so the surface is mostly the all-venue pattern).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

How team race forecasts workThree boats’ ratings, a school term and a home edge; 78.8% of held-out matches called.
Play 1, Play 2, Play 4: how team races are wonHow often each play happens, how that shifts with breeze and level, and whether a star wins differently.
Which team races go to form?Orderliness is a real property of a team race regatta and nothing known in advance predicts it.

All notes →

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