New Trier HS '15
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.23 (fleet 2.00) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 22–22 (50%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 | 3 | 22–22 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 2 graded regattas (28 matches) the record is 12–16 against 17.3 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.3). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 11 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2015-05-23 | NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | skipper | 1.90 | -2.04 | 1–11 | 6.8 | −3.95 | 10.5 | >99% |
| 2015-05-16 | Baker Qualifier | skipper | 1.81 | 2.01 | 11–5 | 10.5 | +0.19 | 0.0 | 52% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| NIT Regatta "Founders Trophy" | Skipper | TR | 14 | 14% | — |
| MISSA Mallory Qualifier | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.8 | 1.20 |
| MISSA Mallory Central Qualifier | Skipper | A | 4 | 2.8 | 2.51 |
| IL State Champs | Skipper | A | 10 | 4.6 | 1.69 |
| Ice Breaker | Skipper | A | 10 | 5.4 | 1.75 |
| HS Invite - Baker Central Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 62% | — |
| Baker Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 16 | 69% | — |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| PCISA Girls Invitational | Skipper | A | 9 | 10.1 | 0.70 |
| MISSA Halloween Spectacular - V | Skipper | A | 6 | 6.5 | 1.66 |
| Kick Off Classic 2014 | Skipper | A | 3 | 12.0 | 0.29 |
| Great Lakes Championships | Skipper | A | 10 | 8.4 | 1.25 |
| Autumn Classic | Skipper | A | 5 | 5.6 | 2.23 |
| 2014 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | A | 14 | 10.6 | 0.23 |
| Spring 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Mallory Qualifiers 2014 | Skipper | B | 12 | 6.4 | 2.13 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Bailey Cornog |  Villanova University |
'19 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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