| # | School | Team | Rec. | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  |
Latin School of Chicago | Varsity | 12–4 |
| 2 |  |
New Trier HS | Trevian | 10–6 |
| 3 |  |
Lake Forest High School | Scouts | 9–7 |
| 4 |  |
Loyola Academy | Ramblers | 8–8 |
| 5 |  |
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | Varsity | 6–4 |
| 6 |  |
Evanston Township HS | Varsity | 4–6 |
| 7 |  |
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | Wolfpack | 3–7 |
| 8 |  |
Hinsdale Central High School | Varsity | 0–10 |
Each side is the sum of its three boats (the skipper's fleet rating times 0.72 plus a team race offset learned from their past matches, plus the crew's offset and a small experience term) plus the school's team race strength and a home-water edge for the host. The win probability is a logistic function of the difference. The forecast was made before the event: the model was refitted on every match sailed before the first day, with fleet ratings as of the week before.
Fitted on the 756 team race matches sailed before 2015-05-02, using the line-ups that actually raced. It called 37 of 52 matches (71%) with a log-loss of 0.532 (a coin flip scores 0.693), so the event went about as expected for the forecast. vs forecast is a team's wins minus the wins the model expected from the matches it sailed: positive means it beat its rating.
For each side, the performance strength is the value that would have made its record least surprising: the strength at which the model's expected wins over exactly these opponents equal the actual wins, with every opponent fixed at its pre-event strength. For a skipper, the same shift is applied only to their boat in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed; team-mates who sailed every match together therefore get the same number. Surprise is in bits: -log2 of the probability of the record at the pre-event strength minus the same at the performance strength. P(this good or better) treats matches as independent coin flips at the model's pre-event probabilities, so it ignores form within the day; read it as a rough guide.
Pre-event strength against the strength that would have made each record least surprising, everything else fixed. Δ is in the model's logit units, the same scale as the boat values above (a side is three boats plus the school term); green is a clear over-performance, red a clear under-performance. Skippers need three or more matches.
| Place | School | Strength | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Evanston Township HS | 2.29 | 3.56 | 4–6 | 2.4 | +1.27 | 1.2 | 16% |
| 1 | Latin School of Chicago | 5.73 | 6.71 | 12–4 | 9.6 | +0.98 | 1.3 | 15% |
| 3 | Lake Forest High School | 5.10 | 5.67 | 9–7 | 7.5 | +0.57 | 0.5 | 29% |
| 2 | New Trier HS | 5.57 | 5.91 | 10–6 | 9.1 | +0.33 | 0.2 | 42% |
| 5 | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 4.27 | 4.50 | 6–4 | 5.7 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 55% |
| 4 | Loyola Academy | 6.15 | 4.98 | 8–8 | 11.1 | −1.17 | 2.1 | 98% |
| 7 | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 4.00 | 2.36 | 3–7 | 5.2 | −1.64 | 2.0 | 98% |
| 8 | Hinsdale Central High School | 1.57 | -1.43 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Skipper | School | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins | Δ | Surprise (bits) | P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| James Zampa | Evanston Township HS | 0.49 | 1.76 | 4–6 | 2.4 | +1.27 | 1.2 | 16% |
| Zach Schenkman | Latin School of Chicago | 1.46 | 2.44 | 12–4 | 9.6 | +0.98 | 1.3 | 15% |
| Allie Cahn | Latin School of Chicago | 1.27 | 2.25 | 12–4 | 9.6 | +0.98 | 1.3 | 15% |
| Joey Manning | Lake Forest High School | 1.43 | 2.00 | 9–7 | 7.5 | +0.57 | 0.5 | 29% |
| Bailey Cornog | New Trier HS | 1.48 | 1.82 | 10–6 | 9.1 | +0.33 | 0.2 | 42% |
| Christian Koules | New Trier HS | 1.50 | 1.84 | 10–6 | 9.1 | +0.33 | 0.2 | 42% |
| Sabina Van Mel | Walter Payton College Preparatory High School | 1.06 | 1.29 | 6–4 | 5.7 | +0.24 | 0.0 | 55% |
| Tom Griffin | Loyola Academy | 1.42 | 0.25 | 8–8 | 11.1 | −1.17 | 2.1 | 98% |
| Ray Groble | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 0.81 | -0.83 | 3–7 | 5.2 | −1.64 | 2.0 | 98% |
| Logan O'Connor | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.35 | -0.29 | 3–7 | 5.2 | −1.64 | 2.0 | 98% |
| Abby Mcfadyen | St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL | 1.36 | -0.28 | 3–7 | 5.2 | −1.64 | 2.0 | 98% |
| Amanda Bronson | Hinsdale Central High School | 0.22 | -2.78 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
| Michael Phlamm | Hinsdale Central High School | 0.35 | -2.65 | 0–10 | 1.4 | ≤−3.00 | 2.1 | >99% |
Probability the model gave the side that went on to win. Red bars are upsets (the winner was given under 50%).
| # | Winner | Loser | Pos. | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | |
Varsity | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-5 |
| 2 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-5-6 |
| 3 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 4 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 DNS |
| 5 | |
Scouts | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 6 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 7 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 8 | |
Varsity | 1-3-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-6 |
| 9 | |
Scouts | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 10 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-3-6 |
| 11 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 12 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 13 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-5-6 |
| 14 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-5 |
| 15 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Trevian | 1-4-6 |
| 16 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 17 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-5-6 |
| 18 | |
Trevian | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 19 | |
Ramblers | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 1-5-6 |
| 20 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 21 | |
Trevian | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 4-5-6 |
| 22 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Ramblers | 2-4-5 |
| 23 | |
Varsity | 1-2-3 | def. | |
Varsity | 4-5-6 |
| 24 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 25 | |
Ramblers | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 2-4-5 |
| 26 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 3-4-6 |
| 27 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 28 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 29 | |
Trevian | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 2-3-6 |
| 30 | |
Varsity | 2-3-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 1-5-6 |
| 31 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-5 |
| 32 | |
Trevian | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 33 | |
Scouts | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 34 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 37 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-6 |
| 42 | |
Wolfpack | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-4-5 |
| 47 | |
Varsity | 1-3-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-5-6 |
| 50 | |
Wolfpack | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Varsity | 1-4-6 |
| 51 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Varsity | 3-5-6 |
| 52 | |
Varsity | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Wolfpack | 2-4-5 |
| 35 | |
Varsity | 1-4-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 2-3-6 |
| 36 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
| 40 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-5-6 |
| 41 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-5-6 |
| 45 | |
Trevian | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-4-6 |
| 46 | |
Scouts | 1-3-6 | def. | |
Varsity | 2-4-5 |
| 38 | |
Varsity | 2-3-5 | def. | |
Ramblers | 1-4-6 |
| 39 | |
Scouts | 1-2-6 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-4-5 |
| 43 | |
Varsity | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-5-6 |
| 44 | |
Scouts | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Ramblers | 3-5-6 |
| 48 | |
Ramblers | 1-2-4 | def. | |
Trevian | 3-5-6 |
| 49 | |
Varsity | 1-2-5 | def. | |
Scouts | 3-4-6 |
Orderliness is how tightly a fleet race’s finishing order follows the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0): positive is the favourites’ day, negative the underdogs’. A value of ±0.10 means a rating gap counts about 9% more than on a typical day. This event is not a fleet race the rating model scores, so there is no actual value for it: this is what this venue’s fleet racing history says about the breeze on the day, read off the chart at the star. How this is estimated · compare venues.
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
