Hinsdale Central High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0.49 (fleet 0.79) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 1–12 (8%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 1–2 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 0–10 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (3 matches) the record is 1–2 against 1.1 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−0.1). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 0 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-04-10 | LF COLYC Combo Team Race | skipper | 0.82 | 0.49 | 1–2 | 1.1 | −0.33 | 0.0 | 84% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Season | |||||
| LF COLYC Combo Team Race | Skipper | TR | 3 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2015 Season | |||||
| Pewaukee Fall Scramble | Skipper | B | 10 | 8.5 | 1.24 |
| High School Keelboat Invite Keelboat | Crew | A | 5 | 3.6 | — |
| Spring 2015 Season | |||||
| May Madness | Skipper | A | 14 | 12.4 | 0.01 |
| HS Invite - Baker Central Qualifier | Skipper | TR | 10 | 0% | — |
| Fall 2014 Season | |||||
| MISSA Halloween Spectacular - V | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.3 | -0.65 |
| Kick Off Classic 2014 | Skipper | B | 6 | 18.3 | -3.00 |
| Fall Scramble | Skipper | B | 8 | 14.8 | -0.37 |
| Banks Blackwell Invitational | Skipper | A | 7 | 12.6 | 0.28 |
| Autumn Classic | Skipper | B | 5 | 17.2 | -0.85 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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