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Fall Scramble

# SchoolTeam A B TOT
1 Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Varsity 68 22 90
2 Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 45 49 94
3 Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 70 38 108
4 Badger High School Badger High School Varsity 63 46 109
5 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School JV 60 52 112
6 Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity 44 76 120
7 University Lake School University Lake School Varsity 78 45 123
8 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 83 58 141
9 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Varsity 67 77 144
10 St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL 1 69 81 150
11 Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Varsity 51 127 178
12 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 1 89 91 180
13 New Trier HS New Trier HS Varsity 110 75 185
14 Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 94 127 221
15 Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 99 126 225
16 Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 114 115 229
17 Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Hill Toppers 117 123 240
18 Loyola Academy Loyola Academy JV 139 113 252
19 Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 141 118 259
20 Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2 152 134 286
21 Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 116 175 291
22 Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 2 157 158 315
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity 1 4 6 2 8 14 7 2 44 Christian Spencer '18
Parker Girard '16
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 2 6 4 1 3 8 10 11 45 Brady Carlson '17
Will Grosspietsch '18
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Varsity 10 5 7 4 2 4 9 10 51 Josh Sullivan '16
Clara Brown '18
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School JV 5 9 1 10 1 15 18 1 60 Alex Keck '17
Maddie Crucius '20
Badger High School Badger High School Varsity 9 3 3 16 DNF 1 3 5 63 Mac Six '15
Thomas Peck '17
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Varsity 20 2 8 3 6 6 4 18 67 Graham Post '17
Kelsey Donahue '16
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Varsity 22 1 2 14 9 2 5 13 68 Carolyn Keck '15
Lindsey Cavaiani '15
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL 1 17 13 5 8 7 3 2 14 69 Kate O'Donnell '15
Tiernaur Anderson '16
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 14 10 9 7 15 11 1 3 70 Lily Loosbrock '17 [1-8]
Marta Torelli '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Graham Ness '19 [3-4]
University Lake School University Lake School Varsity 19 7 14 5 5 5 19 4 78 Carter Cooper '16
Henry Vonhagke '17
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 3 19 11 12 12 7 13 6 83 Jonathan Bailey '18
Hayden Frentzel '16
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 1 8 18 16 6 4 12 17 8 89 Gavin Adams '15
Emma Zastrow '16
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 7 11 12 17 17 17 6 7 94 Skye Shepherd '16 [1-8]
Sarah Tompsidis '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Sarah Schmider '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 4 12 10 13 16 18 14 12 99 Sabina Van Mel '15 [1-8]
Lucie Mcknight '17 [1-6]
Hanna Mularczyk '17 [7-8]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Varsity 16 15 18 15 13 13 11 9 110 Alex Fowkes '16
Caroline O'Malley '17
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 21 14 17 9 11 10 15 17 114 Marleigh Belsley '19
Nick Peluchiwski '18
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 13 16 15 11 14 16 12 19 116 Emily Gildea '17
Ian Reed '17
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Hill Toppers 12 8 21 18 19 9 8 22 117 Matt Malone '17
Hunter Keating '18
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy JV 11 DNF 20 20 10 19 20 16 139 Peter Reckamp '16
Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen '17
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 15 20 13 22 20 20 16 15 141 Cj Enright '17 [1-8]
Cal Bronson '17 [1-3, 7-8]
Berenger Jeannides '18 [4-6]
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2 6 21 19 21 21 22 22 20 152 Chloe Frentzel '17
Katie Carlson '18
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 2 18 17 22 19 18 21 21 21 157 James Zampa '16
Cole Schilling '15
SchoolTeam R1 R2 R3 R4 R5 R6 R7 R8 TOT Sailors
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Varsity 1 1 7 2 1 1 2 7 22 Tom Groskopf '15 [1-8]
Megan Grosspietsch '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Gina Morris '16 [3-4, 7-8]
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Skippers 2 4 4 7 4 8 3 6 38 Jacob Siegel '15 [1-8]
Austin Haag '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Graham Ness '19 [5-6]
University Lake School University Lake School Varsity 4 3 5 4 10 12 4 3 45 No Show
No Show
Badger High School Badger High School Varsity 6 11 6 12 6 3 1 1 46 Carson Hillier '18
Jack Anderson '18
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Raccoons 12 9 3 6 7 2 5 5 49 Connor Carlson '17 [1-8]
Graves Anna '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Pauline Brown '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School JV 3 2 2 1 2 9 10 OCS 52 Jack Tegeder '17
Paul Mclean '17
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 1 8 7 8 9 3 5 7 11 58 Joey Biwer '19
Molly Burns '16
New Trier HS New Trier HS Varsity 9 5 15 11 11 6 6 12 75 Dylan Cotter '18 [1-8]
Mandy Watson '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Charlie Clarke '15 [5-6]
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Varsity 10 6 13 10 8 7 13 9 76 Jp Munich '17
Alex Guindon '17
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Varsity 13 10 10 5 12 17 8 2 77 Zachary Miller '16 [1-8]
Annie Mollman '17 [1-2, 4-8]
Will Flocco '16 [3]
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL 1 5 13 9 8 5 13 11 17 81 Gordon Scully '17 [1-8]
Isabella Lorenz '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Alastair Scully '18 [3-6]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 1 11 12 19 3 9 15 14 8 91 Colleen Wiechart '15
Irene Dobbs '15
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy JV 19 8 17 18 17 11 9 14 113 Henry Stack '15
Genevieve Lee '16
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Varsity 15 15 1 20 18 16 12 18 115 Nikolas Chambers '19
Anthony Kolton '19
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Varsity 18 18 12 15 15 4 17 19 118 Amanda Bronson '16
Michael Phlamm '16
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Hill Toppers 17 14 14 17 13 19 19 10 123 Jerry Komas '16
Graham Kent '16
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity 16 16 20 19 14 10 18 13 126 Peter Odom '17 [1-8]
Natalie Gastevich '16 [1-6]
Caroline Bernet '17 [7-8]
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Scouts 7 19 11 16 21 18 15 20 127 Kelly Page '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Kate Lekberg '18 [3-4]
Nicholas Elsasser '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Kate Lekberg '18 [5-6]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Varsity 14 21 16 13 19 20 20 4 127 Genna Viggiano '18
Courtney Clark '17
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Warhawks 2 20 20 18 14 16 14 16 16 134 No Show
Grayson Wallace '18
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Varsity 2 21 17 22 21 20 21 21 15 158 Logan Pearlman '16
Samantha Idler '17
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Varsity 22 22 21 DNS 22 22 22 21 175 Matt Sheerin '16 [1-8]
Chris Murphy '15 [1-4]
Blake Weglarz '16 [5-8]
Boat Speed Analyzer
SlowExpected boat effectFast
−0.200+0.20
Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Fall 2014 (8 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team1A2A3A4A5A6A7A8A
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 111335577
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 222446688
Badger High SchoolBadger High School Varsity33557799
Brother Rice High School - ILBrother Rice High School - IL Varsity4466881010
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity 15577991111
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity 2668810101212
Hinsdale Central High SchoolHinsdale Central High School Varsity779911111313
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School JV99111113131515
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School Varsity88101012121414
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts1010121214141616
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Varsity1111131315151717
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy JV1313151517171919
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Varsity1212141416161818
MahtomediMahtomedi Varsity1414161618182020
Marquette University High SchoolMarquette University High School Hill Toppers1515171719192121
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers1616181820202222
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Varsity17171919212111
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons191921211133
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Varsity18182020222222
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL 1202022222244
University Lake SchoolUniversity Lake School Varsity2121113355
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity2222224466

Division B

Team1B2B3B4B5B6B7B8B
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 122446688
Arrowhead High SchoolArrowhead High School Warhawks 233557799
Badger High SchoolBadger High School Varsity4466881010
Brother Rice High School - ILBrother Rice High School - IL Varsity5577991111
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity 1668810101212
Evanston Township HSEvanston Township HS Varsity 2779911111313
Hinsdale Central High SchoolHinsdale Central High School Varsity88101012121414
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School JV1010121214141616
Kettle Moraine High SchoolKettle Moraine High School Varsity99111113131515
Lake Forest High SchoolLake Forest High School Scouts1111131315151717
Latin School of ChicagoLatin School of Chicago Varsity1212141416161818
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy JV1414161618182020
Loyola AcademyLoyola Academy Varsity1313151517171919
MahtomediMahtomedi Varsity1515171719192121
Marquette University High SchoolMarquette University High School Hill Toppers1616181820202222
Minnetonka High SchoolMinnetonka High School Skippers17171919212111
New Trier HSNew Trier HS Varsity18182020222222
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Raccoons202022222244
Oconomowoc High SchoolOconomowoc High School Varsity191921211133
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, ILSt. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL 12121113355
University Lake SchoolUniversity Lake School Varsity2222224466
Walter Payton College Preparatory High SchoolWalter Payton College Preparatory High School Varsity11335577
School / Team SkipperCrew
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Jonathan Bailey '18 Hayden Frentzel '16
Warhawks 1 Joey Biwer '19 Molly Burns '16
Arrowhead High School Arrowhead High School Chloe Frentzel '17 Katie Carlson '18
Warhawks 2 No Show Grayson Wallace '18
Badger High School Badger High School Mac Six '15 Thomas Peck '17
Varsity Carson Hillier '18 Jack Anderson '18
Brother Rice High School - IL Brother Rice High School - IL Emily Gildea '17 Ian Reed '17
Varsity Matt Sheerin '16 [1-8] Chris Murphy '15 [1-4]
Blake Weglarz '16 [5-8]
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS Gavin Adams '15 Emma Zastrow '16
Varsity 1 Colleen Wiechart '15 Irene Dobbs '15
Evanston Township HS Evanston Township HS James Zampa '16 Cole Schilling '15
Varsity 2 Logan Pearlman '16 Samantha Idler '17
Hinsdale Central High School Hinsdale Central High School Cj Enright '17 [1-8] Cal Bronson '17 [1-3, 7-8]
Berenger Jeannides '18 [4-6]
Varsity Amanda Bronson '16 Michael Phlamm '16
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Alex Keck '17 Maddie Crucius '20
JV Jack Tegeder '17 Paul Mclean '17
Kettle Moraine High School Kettle Moraine High School Christian Spencer '18 Parker Girard '16
Varsity Jp Munich '17 Alex Guindon '17
Lake Forest High School Lake Forest High School Skye Shepherd '16 [1-8] Sarah Tompsidis '17 [1-2, 5-6]
Sarah Schmider '17 [3-4, 7-8]
Scouts Kelly Page '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Kate Lekberg '18 [3-4]		 Nicholas Elsasser '18 [1-4, 7-8]
Kate Lekberg '18 [5-6]
Latin School of Chicago Latin School of Chicago Marleigh Belsley '19 Nick Peluchiwski '18
Varsity Nikolas Chambers '19 Anthony Kolton '19
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Peter Reckamp '16 Cynthia Rodriguez-Huspen '17
JV Henry Stack '15 Genevieve Lee '16
Loyola Academy Loyola Academy Graham Post '17 Kelsey Donahue '16
Varsity Zachary Miller '16 [1-8] Annie Mollman '17 [1-2, 4-8]
Will Flocco '16 [3]
Mahtomedi Mahtomedi Josh Sullivan '16 Clara Brown '18
Varsity Genna Viggiano '18 Courtney Clark '17
Marquette University High School Marquette University High School Matt Malone '17 Hunter Keating '18
Hill Toppers Jerry Komas '16 Graham Kent '16
Minnetonka High School Minnetonka High School Lily Loosbrock '17 [1-8] Marta Torelli '17 [1-2, 5-8]
Graham Ness '19 [3-4]
Skippers Jacob Siegel '15 [1-8] Austin Haag '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Graham Ness '19 [5-6]
New Trier HS New Trier HS Alex Fowkes '16 Caroline O'Malley '17
Varsity Dylan Cotter '18 [1-8] Mandy Watson '16 [1-4, 7-8]
Charlie Clarke '15 [5-6]
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Brady Carlson '17 Will Grosspietsch '18
Raccoons Connor Carlson '17 [1-8] Graves Anna '18 [1-2, 5-6]
Pauline Brown '15 [3-4, 7-8]
Oconomowoc High School Oconomowoc High School Carolyn Keck '15 Lindsey Cavaiani '15
Varsity Tom Groskopf '15 [1-8] Megan Grosspietsch '16 [1-2, 5-6]
Gina Morris '16 [3-4, 7-8]
St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL St. Ignatius College Prep, Chicago, IL Kate O'Donnell '15 Tiernaur Anderson '16
1 Gordon Scully '17 [1-8] Isabella Lorenz '16 [1-2, 7-8]
Alastair Scully '18 [3-6]
University Lake School University Lake School Carter Cooper '16 Henry Vonhagke '17
Varsity No Show No Show
Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Walter Payton College Preparatory High School Sabina Van Mel '15 [1-8] Lucie Mcknight '17 [1-6]
Hanna Mularczyk '17 [7-8]
Varsity Peter Odom '17 [1-8] Natalie Gastevich '16 [1-6]
Caroline Bernet '17 [7-8]

Conditions — 09/13/2014 (8am–6pm)

🌤️Partly cloudy
Humidity 64%  ·  Pressure 1027.8 hPa

Temperature

51°F
↑ 55°F   ↓ 43°F
Feels like 47°F

Wind

● from   ▲ toward
3.7 kn
avg  ·  max 8.1 kn
Gusts to 21.2 kn
From NW (322°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover73% Sunshine11.0 hrs Humidity64% Pressure1027.8 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: N 6 kn · SW 11 kn (weather reanalysis in the scorer’s units)
In this breeze at Pewaukee Yacht Club: a favourites’ day (+0.02)
Back the top seeds: results should follow the ratings, and the gaps between favourites hold.
Fleet adjustment +0.11 (a softer or greener fleet makes the ratings stick) · combined forecast +0.13
Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.10 ± 0.10)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.02 means a rating gap counts about 2% more than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Pewaukee Yacht Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (20 labelled days at Pewaukee Yacht Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

All notes →