Minnetonka High School '16
A team race rating is what the sailor brings to one of the three boats: 0.72 x their fleet rating plus a team-race offset learned from every match they sailed, shrunk toward zero so a few matches cannot move it far. Sides are compared by the sum of their three boats plus the school's team race strength.
| Rating | Rank | vs fleet rating | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1.36 (fleet 2.21) | unranked (fewer than 30 matches as skipper, or not active) | −0.00 ± 0.18 about what the fleet rating predicts |
as skipper 13–12 (52%) |
| Season | Regattas | Skipper W–L | Crew W–L |
|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 | 1 | 5–10 | — |
| Spring 2015 | 1 | 8–2 | — |
For each regatta, the boat value that would have made this sailor's record least surprising: the shift applied to their boat alone, in the matches they sailed, with team-mates and opponents fixed at the pre-event forecast. A boat's skipper and crew share the boat, so they get the same number when they sailed every match together. Surprise is in bits at the pre-event value minus at the performance value; P(this good or better) treats the matches as independent at the forecast probabilities. Regattas forecast from fewer than 1,000 training matches are left out.
Over 1 graded regattas (15 matches) the record is 5–10 against 10.6 wins the pre-event forecasts expected (−5.6). 0 regattas clearly above the rating (P ≤ 20%), 1 clearly below (P ≥ 80%); 8 bits of surprise in all.
| Date | Regatta | Role | Value | Perf. | Record | Exp. wins |
Δ | Surprise (bits) |
P(this good or better) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2016-05-21 | LMSS TEAM RACE | skipper | 1.66 | -0.75 | 5–10 | 10.6 | −2.41 | 7.7 | >99% |
| Regatta | Role | Div | Races | Avg | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Spring 2016 Team page Season | |||||
| LMSS TEAM RACE | Skipper | TR | 15 | 33% | — |
| Fall 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| Dusty Water Invitational | Skipper | B | 11 | 6.3 | 1.90 |
| 2015 Atlantic Coast Championship | Skipper | B | 9 | 14.0 | -0.99 |
| Spring 2015 Team page Season | |||||
| May Madness | Skipper | A | 14 | 5.1 | 2.21 |
| LMSS Team Race | Skipper | TR | — | — | — |
| Coed MN St. Tournament | Skipper | A | 6 | 9.2 | -0.01 |
| Fall 2014 Team page Season | |||||
| MISSA Halloween Spectacular - JV | Skipper | A | 11 | 6.7 | 1.43 |
| Kick Off Classic 2014 | Skipper | B | 6 | 10.7 | 0.18 |
| Fall Scramble | Crew | B | 6 | 4.3 | — |
| Fall Colors Invite | Skipper | A | 6 | 4.3 | 1.79 |
| Art Johnson Invitational | Skipper | A | 8 | 7.4 | 1.74 |
| League | Name | School | Year |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICSA | Austin Haag |  University of Michigan |
'20 |
Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.
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