2015 Atlantic Coast Championship

HostNorfolk Yacht and Country Club
Date11/14/2015
TypeNational Invitational
BoatCFJ
Scoring2 Divisions

#	School	Team	A	B	TOT
1	St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	54	40	94
2	Key School	Zags	33	73	106
3	Christchurch School	Seahorses	41	66	107
4	Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	60	69	129
5	Falmouth High School, ME	Yachtsmen	91	75	166
6	Broadneck High School	Bruins	109	63	172
7	Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	113	62	175
8	Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	98	100	198
9	Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	85	117	202
10	Severn School	Admirals	105	99	204
11	Antilles School	Hurricanes	110	109	219
12	North Kingstown High School Sailing	Skippers	119	112	231
13	Kettle Moraine High School	Varsity	121	122	243
14	Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	104	158	262
15	Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	173	106	279
16	Falcons	Falcons	147	162	309
17	Minnetonka High School	Skippers	161	160	321
18	Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	158	188	346

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
Key School	Zags	3	4	1	2	5	5	3	1	3	3	3	33	Christian Filter '16 Nicholas Papadopoulos '18
Christchurch School	Seahorses	2	3	5	3	1	9	1	2	5	5	5	41	Hector Guzman '16 [1-11] Sally Johnson '18 [1-2, 5-9] Alara Sahin '18 [3-4, 10-11]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	7	6	2	1	4	16	5	3	2	6	2	54	Sophia Reineke '17 Max Gillette '16
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	1	2	12	6	9	4	6	4	6	1	9	60	Dreugh Phillips '16 [1-11] Sarah Smith '18 [1-2, 10-11] Daniel Vail '17 [3-9]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	10	1	13	4	6	2	7	10	15	7	10	85	Kyle Mergenthaler '16 Mackie Conner '16
Falmouth High School, ME	Yachtsmen	9	17	4	16	8	10	2	13	1	10	1	91	Cameron Rousseau '16 [1-11] Reed Mcdermott '16 [1-4] Audrey Morin '17 [5-11]
Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	8	7	3	9	13	14	13	12	7	4	8	98	Cooper Siepert '16 Patrick Miller '19
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	13	14	8	5	3	3	16	9	11	11	11	104	Mark Davies '16 Marleigh Belsley '19
Severn School	Admirals	6	8	9	7	12	13	11	8	14	2	15	105	Stephen Duncan '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Stephanie Houck '17 [3-4, 7-9] Caroline Mcneil '18 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Blair Reilly '18 [3-4, 7-9]
Broadneck High School	Bruins	5	15	6	8	15	18	4	7	9	15	7	109	Phillip Schofield '17 [1-11] Kate Selley '16 [1-4, 7-11] Allison Gingerich '17 [5-6]
Antilles School	Hurricanes	17	13	16	13	11	1	10	5	12	8	4	110	Ryan Hunter '17 [1-2, 5-9] Teddy Nicolosi '19 [3-4, 10-11] Maggie Bartlett '16 [1-9] Ryan Hunter '17 [10-11]
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	4	5	11	11	16	7	12	11	8	14	14	113	Gray Kiger '16 [1-6, 10-11] Jessica Williams '16 [7-9] Marshall Mccraw '16 [1-6, 10-11] Emmaline Herring '16 [7-9]
North Kingstown High School Sailing	Skippers	11	12	7	10	10	8	8	14	10	16	13	119	Mikey O'Flaherty '17 [1-4] Delaney Bamford '16 [5-11] Ryan Soucy '18 [1-4, 10-11] Mikey O'Flaherty '17 [5-9]
Kettle Moraine High School	Varsity	12	16	15	12	7	15	9	6	4	13	12	121	Christian Spencer '18 Paul Mclean '17
Falcons	Falcons	16	11	14	17	DSQ	11	15	16	13	9	6	147
Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	15	18	17	14	14	6	14	15	16	12	17	158	Collin Porter '19 Cecilia Belzer '18
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	14	9	18	15	2	17	17	18	18	17	16	161	Lily Loosbrock '17 Berette Mcnaught '16
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	18	10	10	18	17	12	18	17	17	18	18	173	Jack Schweda '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Jonothan Bailey '19 [3-4, 7-9] Gavin Burkhart '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Molly Burns '16 [3-4, 7-9]

School	Team	R1	R2	R3	R4	R5	R6	R7	R8	R9	R10	R11	TOT	Sailors
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Raiders	3	12	2	1	2	10	1	1	3	1	4	40	Mack Fox '16 John Monahan '16
Norfolk Academy	Bulldogs	7	2	3	3	1	8	7	7	9	9	6	62	James Whitmore '16 Anna Cornetta '16
Broadneck High School	Bruins	RDG	3	1	5	3	2	11	11	12	4	5	63	Philip Davis '16 [1-11] Katherine Bennett '18 [1-6] Brigid Mckay '17 [7-11]
Christchurch School	Seahorses	2	4	DSQ	4	13	7	4	3	2	5	3	66	Boyd Bragg '19 [1-11] Eric Demario '18 [1-6] Claire Rae '16 [7-11]
Norfolk Collegiate School	Oaks	1	5	5	2	4	14	2	6	10	7	13	69	Darden Purrington '16 [1-2, 5-9] Victor Layne '16 [3-4] Ellie Maus '18 [10-11] Nick Baker '16 [1-9] Ashley Obermeyer '18 [10-11]
Key School	Zags	9	1	6	9	7	3	6	8	8	6	10	73	Harrison Koller '17 [1-4, 10-11] Bryan Bay '16 [5-9] Declan Lombard '17 [1-4] Isadora Gallanar '17 [5-6, 10-11] Kendall Schneider '17 [7-9]
Falmouth High School, ME	Yachtsmen	6	6	12	11	5	17	5	5	5	2	1	75	Caleb Robinson '18 [1-11] Peter Morrissette '18 [1-6] Grace Mooridian '17 [7-11]
Severn School	Admirals	10	8	4	DSQ	14	4	3	2	11	10	14	99	Aidan Morgan '17 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Connor Bayless '17 [3-4, 7-9] Shiv Saini '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Camille White '18 [3-4, 7-9]
Cape Elizabeth High School	Capers	13	11	9	14	9	9	8	4	7	8	8	100	Greg Corsello '16 Tucker Wanzer '16
Arrowhead High School	Warhawks	4	9	13	7	11	1	13	13	17	11	7	106	Jp Friend '18 Chloe Frentzel '17
Antilles School	Hurricanes	14	14	10	10	12	DSQ	14	10	1	3	2	109	Kai Holmberg '17 [1-2, 7-8] Christopher Sharpless '19 [3-6, 9-11] Alexa Percell '16 [1-4, 9-11] Jewel Tayler '16 [5-8]
North Kingstown High School Sailing	Skippers	5	13	16	13	6	5	10	9	6	17	12	112	Aidan Naughton '18 [1-2] Noah Simmons '16 [3-4] Marina Barzaghi '17 [5-9] Harry Dewhurst '18 [10-11] Adeline Sutton '17 [1-2, 7-9] Caroline Bourgeois '18 [3-4] Kevin Stamp '18 [5-6] Jaia Colongese '18 [10-11]
Pine Lake Prep	Varsity	8	7	7	6	10	16	12	17	13	12	9	117	Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [1-4, 7-8] Kelly Milliken '16 [5-6, 9-11] Kelly Milliken '16 [1-4] Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [5-6] Jason Perryman '17 [7-11]
Kettle Moraine High School	Varsity	15	17	14	8	8	6	9	12	4	14	15	122	Alex Keck '17 [1-11] Myles Murphy '16 [1-6] Maloy Murphy '19 [7-11]
Latin School of Chicago	Varsity	16	16	8	12	16	11	16	15	16	15	17	158	Allie Cahn '16 [1-8] Nikolas Chambers '19 [9-11] Leah Peluchiwski '16 [1-9] Will Davies '18 [10-11]
Minnetonka High School	Skippers	11	10	11	16	17	13	17	16	15	18	16	160	Austin Haag '16 [1-9] Graham Ness '19 [10-11] Graham Ness '19 [1-2, 7-9] Sydney Maxwell '17 [3-6, 10-11]
Falcons	Falcons	17	15	15	15	18	15	15	14	14	13	11	162
Savannah Country Day School	Hornets	18	18	DNS	17	15	12	DNF	18	18	16	18	188	Duke Cowart '19 Grayson Rhangos '19

Boat Speed Analyzer

SlowExpected boat effectFast

−0.110+0.11

Places per race a team should expect to gain or lose in this boat against what its sailors' ratings predict, from a model of this fleet fitted on every regatta sailed here since Spring 2015 (30 regattas). Shown at the 40% that holds up on regattas the model never saw; hover a sail for its value and uncertainty. Grey = boat not in the fit. How this is estimated.

Division A

Team	1A	2A	3A	4A	5A	6A	7A	8A	9A	10A	11A
Antilles School Hurricanes	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Arrowhead High School Warhawks	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Broadneck High School Bruins	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Christchurch School Seahorses	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Falcons Falcons	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Kettle Moraine High School Varsity	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Key School Zags	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Latin School of Chicago Varsity	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Minnetonka High School Skippers	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
North Kingstown High School Sailing Skippers	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10
Savannah Country Day School Hornets	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
Severn School Admirals	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9

Division B

Team	1B	2B	3B	4B	5B	6B	7B	8B	9B	10B	11B
Antilles School Hurricanes	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12
Arrowhead High School Warhawks	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13
Broadneck High School Bruins	4	4	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14
Cape Elizabeth High School Capers	5	5	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15
Christchurch School Seahorses	6	6	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16
Falcons Falcons	7	7	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17
Falmouth High School, ME Yachtsmen	8	8	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18
Kettle Moraine High School Varsity	9	9	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1
Key School Zags	10	10	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2
Latin School of Chicago Varsity	11	11	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3
Minnetonka High School Skippers	12	12	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4
Norfolk Academy Bulldogs	13	13	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5
Norfolk Collegiate School Oaks	14	14	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6
North Kingstown High School Sailing Skippers	15	15	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7
Pine Lake Prep Varsity	16	16	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8
St. Thomas Aquinas High School Raiders	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9	9	11
Savannah Country Day School Hornets	17	17	1	1	3	3	5	5	7	7	9
Severn School Admirals	18	18	2	2	4	4	6	6	8	8	10

School / Team	Skipper	Crew
Antilles School	Ryan Hunter '17 [1-2, 5-9] Teddy Nicolosi '19 [3-4, 10-11]	Maggie Bartlett '16 [1-9] Ryan Hunter '17 [10-11]
Hurricanes	Kai Holmberg '17 [1-2, 7-8] Christopher Sharpless '19 [3-6, 9-11]	Alexa Percell '16 [1-4, 9-11] Jewel Tayler '16 [5-8]
Arrowhead High School	Jack Schweda '20 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Jonothan Bailey '19 [3-4, 7-9]	Gavin Burkhart '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Molly Burns '16 [3-4, 7-9]
Warhawks	Jp Friend '18	Chloe Frentzel '17
Broadneck High School	Phillip Schofield '17 [1-11]	Kate Selley '16 [1-4, 7-11] Allison Gingerich '17 [5-6]
Bruins	Philip Davis '16 [1-11]	Katherine Bennett '18 [1-6] Brigid Mckay '17 [7-11]
Cape Elizabeth High School	Cooper Siepert '16	Patrick Miller '19
Capers	Greg Corsello '16	Tucker Wanzer '16
Christchurch School	Hector Guzman '16 [1-11]	Sally Johnson '18 [1-2, 5-9] Alara Sahin '18 [3-4, 10-11]
Seahorses	Boyd Bragg '19 [1-11]	Eric Demario '18 [1-6] Claire Rae '16 [7-11]
Falmouth High School, ME	Cameron Rousseau '16 [1-11]	Reed Mcdermott '16 [1-4] Audrey Morin '17 [5-11]
Yachtsmen	Caleb Robinson '18 [1-11]	Peter Morrissette '18 [1-6] Grace Mooridian '17 [7-11]
Kettle Moraine High School	Christian Spencer '18	Paul Mclean '17
Varsity	Alex Keck '17 [1-11]	Myles Murphy '16 [1-6] Maloy Murphy '19 [7-11]
Key School	Christian Filter '16	Nicholas Papadopoulos '18
Zags	Harrison Koller '17 [1-4, 10-11] Bryan Bay '16 [5-9]	Declan Lombard '17 [1-4] Isadora Gallanar '17 [5-6, 10-11] Kendall Schneider '17 [7-9]
Latin School of Chicago	Mark Davies '16	Marleigh Belsley '19
Varsity	Allie Cahn '16 [1-8] Nikolas Chambers '19 [9-11]	Leah Peluchiwski '16 [1-9] Will Davies '18 [10-11]
Minnetonka High School	Lily Loosbrock '17	Berette Mcnaught '16
Skippers	Austin Haag '16 [1-9] Graham Ness '19 [10-11]	Graham Ness '19 [1-2, 7-9] Sydney Maxwell '17 [3-6, 10-11]
Norfolk Academy	Gray Kiger '16 [1-6, 10-11] Jessica Williams '16 [7-9]	Marshall Mccraw '16 [1-6, 10-11] Emmaline Herring '16 [7-9]
Bulldogs	James Whitmore '16	Anna Cornetta '16
Norfolk Collegiate School	Dreugh Phillips '16 [1-11]	Sarah Smith '18 [1-2, 10-11] Daniel Vail '17 [3-9]
Oaks	Darden Purrington '16 [1-2, 5-9] Victor Layne '16 [3-4] Ellie Maus '18 [10-11]	Nick Baker '16 [1-9] Ashley Obermeyer '18 [10-11]
North Kingstown High School Sailing	Mikey O'Flaherty '17 [1-4] Delaney Bamford '16 [5-11]	Ryan Soucy '18 [1-4, 10-11] Mikey O'Flaherty '17 [5-9]
Skippers	Aidan Naughton '18 [1-2] Noah Simmons '16 [3-4] Marina Barzaghi '17 [5-9] Harry Dewhurst '18 [10-11]	Adeline Sutton '17 [1-2, 7-9] Caroline Bourgeois '18 [3-4] Kevin Stamp '18 [5-6] Jaia Colongese '18 [10-11]
Pine Lake Prep	Kyle Mergenthaler '16	Mackie Conner '16
Varsity	Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [1-4, 7-8] Kelly Milliken '16 [5-6, 9-11]	Kelly Milliken '16 [1-4] Garrett Mergenthaler '19 [5-6] Jason Perryman '17 [7-11]
Savannah Country Day School	Collin Porter '19	Cecilia Belzer '18
Hornets	Duke Cowart '19	Grayson Rhangos '19
Severn School	Stephen Duncan '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Stephanie Houck '17 [3-4, 7-9]	Caroline Mcneil '18 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Blair Reilly '18 [3-4, 7-9]
Admirals	Aidan Morgan '17 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Connor Bayless '17 [3-4, 7-9]	Shiv Saini '16 [1-2, 5-6, 10-11] Camille White '18 [3-4, 7-9]
St. Thomas Aquinas High School	Sophia Reineke '17	Max Gillette '16
Raiders	Mack Fox '16	John Monahan '16

Conditions — 11/14/2015 (8am–6pm)

☀️Clear sky

Humidity 43% · Pressure 1023.7 hPa

Temperature

51°F

↑ 55°F ↓ 46°F

Feels like 43°F

Wind

● from ▲ toward

8.4 kn

avg · max 9.6 kn

Gusts to 22.7 kn

From NW (308°)

Sky & Precipitation

Cloud cover0% Sunshine9.9 hrs Humidity43% Pressure1023.7 hPa

Orderliness — underdogs or favourites?

Breeze: W 13 kn · SE 4 kn (scorer’s report)

In this breeze at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club: a typical day (−0.01)

Nothing in the breeze favours either side; expect results to follow the ratings about as usual.

Fleet adjustment −0.08 (a strong, experienced fleet makes upsets likelier) · combined forecast −0.09

Actual: about typical, within noise (+0.16 ± 0.11)

Orderliness is how tightly the finishing order followed the pre-regatta ratings, relative to a typical event (0). Positive is the favourites’ day: the ratings carried more weight than usual and the top seeds finished where expected. Negative is the underdogs’ day: the fleet compressed and the favourites came back to the pack. A value of ±0.01 means a rating gap counts about 1% less than on a typical day.

The breeze reading is the chart’s value at this regatta’s wind direction and speed (the star): this venue’s pattern of which directions bring order and which bring upsets, with breeze generally orderly and light air surprising. The fleet adjustment comes from the entry list: the stronger and more experienced the fleet, the more surprising the racing. How this is estimated · compare venues.

Orderliness beyond the fleet at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club by wind direction (angle) and speed (rings), fitted surface; dots are labelled regatta-days, ★ this regatta (32 labelled days at Norfolk Yacht and Country Club).

From the notes

Short write-ups of what the ratings and results show, with the numbers and how they were computed.

What a rating point is worthA one-point edge is a 73% chance to beat another boat in a race; two points is 88%.
Should the best sailor sail A?Add your two skippers’ ratings and compare with the field; above it the better skipper belongs in A.
Are the boats even?Boats differ by about 0.3 places a race; fleets are uneven from day one.
Which venues get orderly in a breeze?Some venues get orderly when it blows, a few get messier; the fleet comes first.

All notes →

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